Box Office Results: G-Force takes down Harry Potter

Studio Estimates for July 24-26:

1.  G-Force – $32.2 million
2.  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $30 million
3.  The Ugly Truth – $27 million
4.  Orphan – $12.8 million
5.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $8.2 million

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Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince failed to top the box office for a second straight weekend thanks to Disney’s family-adventure film, G-Force.  I knew pets sell but that basically involves dogs.  I did not expect guinea pigs to be at center-stage stealing the show from Harry Potter.

The Ugly Truth had a very nice opening weekend with $27 million.  Orphan placed fourth with a $12.77 million opening and Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs nabbed the fifth spot during its fourth weekend.

As for our predictions, Phil and I were able to guess all of the Top 5 films correctly.  Our only mistake was underestimating G-Force and leaving Harry Potter on top.  As for Sheehan, he failed to list The Ugly Truth on the Top 5 and instead predicted Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen to make the Top 5.  Transformers landed the sixth spot with $8 million.

Check back on Friday for our new predictions for next weekend when three new films hit the theaters:  Aliens in the Attic, The Collector and a film I’m highly anticipating, Funny People.

Box Office Predictions (July 24-26)

We got a nice variety of new releases this weekend:  one horror, one R-rated romantic comedy, and one family-adventure featuring gerbils.  But will any of these films have enough magic to knock off Harry Potter for the top spot at the box office?  Let’s break it down…

G-Force is a kids movie from Disney about a bunch of gerbils going Mission Impossible style.  Hey, it’s the summer and I guess kids love movies with animals going all “secret agent” right?  Look at the Madagascar penguins… they’ve become a huge hit.  With a friendly PG-rating and a bunch of 3-D screenings around the nation, G-Force could be a powerhouse this weekend.

The Ugly Truth is a movie that I certainly don’t want to see, but will America go see it.  It looks more like a chick-comedy than an actual romantic comedy, but maybe that’s just my opinion.  Katherine Heigl and Gerard Butler are two pretty big names in the industry and should be able to push their weight around for a pretty decent result this weekend.  I’m just surprised at the R-rating the movie received.  How raunchy could this movie be?  And is it really necessary?  Most importantly, will it hurt its box office numbers?

And finally, Orphan… the horror movie about a disturbed little girl named Esther who does some evil things.  This is another R-rated film starring… well relatively no one.  I wasn’t impressed by the trailers and commercials, but it has been getting pretty decent reviews thus far.  Besides horror fanatics, will there be anyone else passing up Harry Potter or The Ugly Truth to see this movie?  I don’t think there will be too many.

Here are our predictions…

My Predictions:

1.  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $38 million
2.  G-Force – $25 million
3.  The Ugly Truth – $24 million
4.  Orphan – $12 million
5.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $10 million

Phil’s Predictions:

1.  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $37 million
2.  G-Force – $32 million
3.  The Ugly Truth – $20 million
4.  Orphan – $14 million
5.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $6 million

Sheehan’s Predictions:

1.  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $65 million
2.  G-Force – $27 million
3.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $16 million
4.  Orphan – $15 million
5.  Transformers:Revenge of the Fallen – $14 million

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As you can see, none of us believe that any of the new releases can knock off Harry Potter from the top spot for a second straight weekend.  In addition to that, our predictions are very similar.  We picked Disney’s G-Force in the #2 spot.  Phil and I also have The Ugly Truth in the third spot while Sheehan failed to include that in the Top 5.  And we all have Orphan in the #4 spot with a range of $12 million – $14 million.

Let’s see how our predictions hold up.  Check back on Monday for the box office results.

Box Office Results: Harry Potter flies, Bruno falls

Studio Estimates for July 17-19:

1.  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $79.5 million
2.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $17.7 million
3.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $13.8 million
4.  Bruno – $8.4 million
5.  The Hangover – $8.3 million

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Well well well… this weekend came as a bit of a shocker (slightly).  We all had the same Top 5 predictions, and therefore none of us predicted all of the movies correctly.  We had Public Enemies in the #5 slot and the sleeper hit of the summer, The Hangover, somehow managed to squeak past Public Enemies and The Proposal for the fifth spot.

What else?  Well, Bruno had a horrendous second weekend, grossing only $8.4 million (almost falling out of the Top 5).  Oh yeah, and then there was Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince that had the all-time highest midnight gross… yet failed to keep up the momentum through the weekend.  Harry Potter grossed (only?) $79.5 million, which was below all of our predictions.

We promise to do a better job next weekend, though that’s going to be tricky.  There are three new releases:  The family adventure, G-Force; the horror film, The Orphan; and the romantic comedy, The Ugly Truth.

Box Office Predictions (July 17-19)

Listen up all you muggles!  The sixth installment of the Harry Potter franchise has hit the theaters by storm!  The incredibly popular boy-wizard was able to collect $22.2 million just during its midnight showings, and totaled $58.2 million for its first day.  What could be the reason for these insane, record-breaking numbers?

For starters, this is the longest break between Harry Potter films for the entire series.  So it’s been two years since children and adults could get their magic-fix at the theaters.  On top of that, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince returned to the family-friendly PG rating.  In the long run, this might be what it takes to pass the PG-13 super-blockbusters like Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen or might I suggest, The Dark Knight?

Anyway, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince is the only wide release this weekend.  So the real question isn’t what film will come in first place this weekend, it’s how much will Harry Potter make?

Here are our predictions…

My Predictions:

1.  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $100 million
2.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $17 million
3.  Bruno – $15 million
4.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $12 million
5.  Public Enemies – $8 million

Chris’ Predictions:

1.  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $125 million
2.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $16 million
3.  Bruno – $15 million
4.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $12 million
5.  Public Enemies – $8 million

Sheehan’s Predictions:

1.  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $89 million
2.  Bruno – $27 million
3.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $22 million
4.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $20 million
5.  Public Enemies – $11 million

Phil’s Predictions:

1.  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $98 million
2.  Bruno – $20 million
3.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $13 million
4.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $9 million
5.  Public Enemies – $5 million

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The Predictions Panel’s range for Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince is $89 million – $125 million.  I’m pretty sure the actual weekend gross will lie in-between our range.  As for the rest of our predictions, we all picked the same five films, but Chris and I chose Ice Age over Bruno while Sheehan and Phil picked Bruno for the runner-up spot.

Let’s see how our predictions hold up.  Check back on Monday for the results.

Box Office Results: Bruno dances to #1 in the States

Studio Estimates for July 10-12:

1.  Bruno – $30.4 million
2.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $28.5  million
3.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $24.2 million
4.  Public Enemies – $14.1 million
5.  The Proposal – $10.5 million

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Although Bruno debuted at the top of the box office this weekend, it was slightly surprising that $30 million was all it made.  Borat made over $26 million its opening weekend in under 1,000 theaters.  Bruno made $30 million in approximately 2,700 theaters.  I’m not exactly sure why, though.  Bruno was more crude, but Borat received better reviews.  Is the public too homophobic to laugh at gay-satire jokes for 82 minutes?

Ice Age stretched past Transformers this weekend to claim the #2 spot in the box office with $28.5 million.  Public Enemies took in $14.1 million during its second weekend and The Proposal finished off the Top 5.  The other new release, I Love You Beth Cooper, ranked in at #7 with $5 million.

Check back next weekend when potentially the biggest movie of the summer hits the theaters (opening on Wednesday), Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince.  All I have to see is if Transformers 2 can gross over $200 in its first five days, let’s see what Harry Potter can do.

Box Office Predictions (July 10-12)

So there were fireworks during the 4th of July weekend at the box office.  Well, aside from the colorful display of explosions that blanketed the night sky… in the movie world Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen squeaked by Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs for its second straight weekend at #1.  It was an extremely close call… so close that the studio estimates on Sunday night tallied a tie for the top spot.  Can a new release this weekend topple over the violent robots or the clumsy cartoons?

I’m sure you’re aware of the talked-about, highly controversial film called Bruno.  Yes, that Sacha Baron Cohen is at it again.  After the surprise hit that Borat was (maybe it wasn’t too big of a shocker how well it did at the box office, but who would’ve thought it would receive an Oscar nomination and a Golden Globe win?), his homosexual, journalist character comes out of the closet and is ready to take the world by storm.  Although it’s an entirely different character and storyline, Bruno will act as a sequel to Borat and because of Borat’s success, don’t be surprised if Bruno passes Transformers and Ice Age this weekend.

The other wide release that comes out this weekend is the teenage romantic-comedy, I Love You Beth Cooper.  Starring Hayden Panettiere, this looks like your typical slapstick rom-com where a nerd falls in love with the hot cheerleader.  Opening in less than 2,000 theaters, I really don’t see this film being much competition but because of the lacked volume of new films, it has a chance to squeak into the Top 5.

Here are our predictions:

My Predictions:

1.  Bruno – $45 million
2.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $27 million
3.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $25 million
4.  Public Enemies – $15 million
5.  The Proposal – $8 million

Phil’s Predictions:

1.  Bruno – $60 million
2.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $20 million
3.  I Love You, Beth Cooper – $15 million
4.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $15 million
5.  The Hangover – $6 million

Sheehan’s Predictions:

1.  Bruno – $57 million
2.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $36 million
3.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $32 million
4.  I Love You, Beth Cooper – $20 million
5.  Public Enemies – $19 million

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Chris was unable to submit his predictions due to a wedding in Rhode Island (not his).  Anyway, it’s unanimous that Bruno will top this weekend’s box office.  The range of our gross estimates is from $45 million – $60 million.  After that, things get quite interesting with our predictions.  Phil and Sheehan both believe that I Love You, Beth Cooper will have a major impact in the box office while I snubbed the film from the Top 5.  Surprisingly, Phil left out Public Enemies on his predictions during it’s second weekend.  And I still have The Proposal hanging on the #5 spot while Phil has The Hangover.

Check back on Monday for the box office results.

Box Office Results: *UPDATE* Transformers win weekend by a hair

Studio Results for July 3-5:

1.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $42.3 million
2.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $41.7 million
3.  Public Enemies – $25.3 million
4.  The Proposal – $12.9 million
5.  The Hangover – $11.3 million

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The Independence Day weekend showdown went down to the wire.  It was as close as the Federer/Roddick match on Sunday turned out to be (tennis anyone?).  The results show Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen edged out Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs by a slim margin, $42.3 million to $41.7 million.  Meanwhile, Public Enemies sits comfortably in the #3 slot with about $26 million and The Proposal and The Hangover round up the Top 5.

It’s tough to see who had the most accurate predictions from the Panel since the studio estimates were indecisive.  In any occasion, the results seemed have caught us by surprise as the box office underachieved what we expected.  Combining Ice Age + Transformers, none of us predicted a gross estimate less than $100 million.

Check back on Friday for our new predictions when two new comedic releases hit a theater near you:  Bruno and I Love You Beth Cooper.  Personally, I cannot wait to watch Bruno.

Box Office Predictions (July 3-5)

So have you seen Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen yet?  As of Wednesday, the film has grossed about $240 million domestically and $235 million from the rest of the world.  Yikes!  Well I haven’t seen it yet and I probably won’t, but those are staggering numbers right there.

Anyway, Happy Independence Day/Weekend!  What does the cinema have in store for us… the third installment of the children’s favorite sloth and mammoth combo, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs and the 1930’s gangster flick, Public Enemies.

There’s little doubt that Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs will be the kiddies’ must-see movie of the weekend and topped with the 3-D screenings, it could really give Transformers a run for the #1 spot at the box office.

Public Enemies is the Michael Mann film starring Johnny Depp and Christian Bale, two superstars who really know how to draw a crowd.  With an R-rating, mixed reviews, and a lengthy runtime, it’s tough to predict how well this movie will do.  I saw the movie on Wednesday and it wasn’t a typical summer blockbuster.  There was a substance that separated it from the usual shoot-them-up kind of film.  That being said, will that hurt or help Public Enemies this weekend?

Here are our predictions:

My Predictions:

1.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $53 million
2.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $48 million
3.  Public Enemies – $30 million
4.  The Hangover – $10 million
5.  The Proposal – $9 million

Chris’ Predictions:

1.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $85 million
2.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $75 million
3.  Public Enemies – $55 million
4.  The Proposal – $9 million
5.  The Hangover – $6 million

Phil’s Predictions:

1.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $80 million
2.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $40 million
3.  Public Enemies – $30 million
4.  The Hangover- $8 million
5.  The Proposal – $7 million

Sheehan’s Predictions:

1.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $60 million
2.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $40 million
3.  Public Enemies – $30 million
4.  The Proposal – $15 million
5.  The Hangover – $14 million

Box Office Results: Transformers rise to the top

Studio Estimates for June 26-28:

1.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $112 million
2.  The Proposal – $18.5 million
3.  The Hangover – $17.2 million
4.  Up – $13 million
5.  My Sister’s Keeper – $12 million

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Well there was no surprise that Transformers 2 would destroy this weekend’s box office, but how many people expected it to go toe-to-toe with The Dark Knight’s records?  In 5 days, Transformers 2 has grossed $201 million, second all-time only to The Dark Knight that grossed $204 million during it’s first five days.  Should we expect a total gross near The Dark Knight’s $533 million?  I don’t think so.  The reviews for Transformers are extremely poor and the public reaction is widely mixed.  The Dark Knight and Titanic grossed so much because of their longevity in the theaters that was assisted by positive reviews, word-of-mouth, and multiple viewings.  You have to be pretty bored to see Transformers multiple times.

As for our predictions, I was the most accurate although Chris’ gross estimate for Transformers was the closest (unless we’re playing by The Price is Right rules).

Check back for our new predictions Friday when the 4th of July weekend offers two mega blockbusters that will compete against Transformers for the box office crown:  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs and Public Enemies.