Box Office Predictions (July 24-26)

gforce ugly_truth_poster orphan-poster

We got a nice variety of new releases this weekend:  one horror, one R-rated romantic comedy, and one family-adventure featuring gerbils.  But will any of these films have enough magic to knock off Harry Potter for the top spot at the box office?  Let’s break it down…

G-Force is a kids movie from Disney about a bunch of gerbils going Mission Impossible style.  Hey, it’s the summer and I guess kids love movies with animals going all “secret agent” right?  Look at the Madagascar penguins… they’ve become a huge hit.  With a friendly PG-rating and a bunch of 3-D screenings around the nation, G-Force could be a powerhouse this weekend.

The Ugly Truth is a movie that I certainly don’t want to see, but will America go see it.  It looks more like a chick-comedy than an actual romantic comedy, but maybe that’s just my opinion.  Katherine Heigl and Gerard Butler are two pretty big names in the industry and should be able to push their weight around for a pretty decent result this weekend.  I’m just surprised at the R-rating the movie received.  How raunchy could this movie be?  And is it really necessary?  Most importantly, will it hurt its box office numbers?

And finally, Orphan… the horror movie about a disturbed little girl named Esther who does some evil things.  This is another R-rated film starring… well relatively no one.  I wasn’t impressed by the trailers and commercials, but it has been getting pretty decent reviews thus far.  Besides horror fanatics, will there be anyone else passing up Harry Potter or The Ugly Truth to see this movie?  I don’t think there will be too many.

Here are our predictions…

My Predictions:

1.  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $38 million
2.  G-Force – $25 million
3.  The Ugly Truth – $24 million
4.  Orphan – $12 million
5.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $10 million

Phil’s Predictions:

1.  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $37 million
2.  G-Force – $32 million
3.  The Ugly Truth – $20 million
4.  Orphan – $14 million
5.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $6 million

Sheehan’s Predictions:

1.  Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $65 million
2.  G-Force – $27 million
3.  Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $16 million
4.  Orphan – $15 million
5.  Transformers:Revenge of the Fallen – $14 million

As you can see, none of us believe that any of the new releases can knock off Harry Potter from the top spot for a second straight weekend.  In addition to that, our predictions are very similar.  We picked Disney’s G-Force in the #2 spot.  Phil and I also have The Ugly Truth in the third spot while Sheehan failed to include that in the Top 5.  And we all have Orphan in the #4 spot with a range of $12 million – $14 million.

Let’s see how our predictions hold up.  Check back on Monday for the box office results.

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