2017 SAG Awards Predictions

I’ll make this post quick. The SAG Awards take place this Sunday and while La La Land has been racking up all of the attention and buzz (both good and bad), this year’s SAG Awards are a bit unpredictable mainly because La La Land is not nominated for the main award: Best Film Ensemble. Weird. So what does this mean?

This is Moonlight’s big chance to gain some ground while behind La La Land. With a SAG Ensemble win for Moonlight, it will certainly boost its momentum to try and upset for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. But if Moonlight loses, possibly to Fences or Manchester by the Sea, you can practically kiss its chances goodbye.

That being said, there is another big story surrounding this awards, and that is the opposite of the #OscarsSoWhite discussion from last year. It seems like in the supporting acting categories, Mahershala Ali and Viola Davis should win. There is even a good amount of talk saying that Denzel Washington could very well win his FIRST SAG award trophy. You read that corrently, Denzel has never won a SAG award before. Just for that reason alone, I feel like he has a slight edge over Casey Affleck.

But if Washington, Davis, and Ali go on to win, that is 75% of the acting awards going to African Americans. Quite the turn-around from years past. Then again, if Stone, Affleck, Hedges, and Williams win then we might have some more complaints.

Anyway, here are my predictions:

Best Film Ensemble: Moonlight
Best Actor: Denzel Washington (Fences)
Best Actress: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences)

2014 Screen Actors Guild Award Winners

The SAG is the largest guild who vote for the Oscars, and that’s exactly the reason why people pay close attention to the SAG awards. The nominees for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture were:

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Dallas Buyers Club
Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Of these nominees, 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle are favorites for Best Picture, though Dallas Buyers Club is certainly gaining momentum with its support for McConaughey and Leto. But when they announced the winner, the front-runner took the award, American Hustle. Does this make it the clear favorite to win Best Picture? At the moment, yes.

Here are the other winners from the ceremony (winners are in bold):

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
James Gandolfini (Enough Said)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels’ The Butler)

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

All is Lost
Fast & Furious 6
Lone Survivor
Rush
The Wolverine

It’s noteworthy that Jennifer Lawrence didn’t win the Supporting Actress category, falling to Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave). This will be a huge shift to what everyone thought was a lock for Lawrence to win her second Oscar. Nyong’o might be 12 Years a Slave’s best chance at snagging a Top 6 Oscar award, and people may very well vote that way.

Here are the TV awards from the night

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

Matt Damon (“Behind the Candelabra”)
Michael Douglas (“Behind the Candelabra”)
Jeremy Irons (“The Hollow Crown”)
Rob Lowe (“Killing Kennedy”)
Al Pacino (“Phil Spector”)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

Angela Bassett (“Betty & Coretta”)
Helena Bonham Carter (“Burton and Taylor”)
Holly Hunter (“Top of the Lake”)
Helen Mirren (“Phil Spector”)
Elisabeth Moss (“Top of the Lake”)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

Steve Buscemi (“Boardwalk Empire”)
Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”)
Jeff Daniels (“The Newsroom”)
Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones”)
Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards”)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

Claire Danes (“Homeland”)
Anna Gunn (“Breaking Bad”)
Jessica Lange (“American Horror Story: Coven”)
Maggie Smith (“Downton Abbey”)
Kerry Washington (“Scandal”)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

“Boardwalk Empire”
“Breaking Bad”
“Downton Abbey”
“Game of Thrones”
“Homeland”

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

Alec Baldwin (“30 Rock”)
Jason Bateman (“Arrested Development”)
Ty Burrell (“Modern Family”)
Don Cheadle (“House of Lies”)
Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

Mayim Bialik (“The Big Bang Theory”)
Julie Bowen (“Modern Family”)
Edie Falco (“Nurse Jackie”)
Tina Fey (“30 Rock”)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

“30 Rock”
“Arrested Development”
“The Big Bang Theory”
“Modern Family”
“Veep”

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series

“Boardwalk Empire”
“Breaking Bad”
“Game of Thrones”
“Homeland”
“The Walking Dead”

SAG Awards Nominees 2014

The Screen Actors Guild Awards are chosen and voted for by the largest guild in the business: the actors. It’s always interesting to see which movies and actors the peers are leaning towards as the best from the past year. Should we take these nominees seriously when trying to predict the Oscars?

There are only five nominees every year for the SAG Outstanding Performance by a Cast award, so during the days when there were only five Best Picture nominees, it was fun to compare. Now with more Best Picture nominees, all of these guild nominations are just hints at what the Best Picture category can look like.

Let’s take a look at the past few SAG Ensemble winners and Best Picture winners:

2012: Argo (SAG) – Argo (Oscar)
2011: The Help (SAG) – The Artist (Oscar)
2010: The King’s Speech (SAG) – The King’s Speech (Oscar)
2009: Inglourious Basterds (SAG) – The Hurt Locker (Oscar)
2008: Slumdog Millionaire (SAG) – Slumdog Millionaire (Oscar)

So based on the past five years when matching the SAG and Best Picture, you can see a on-and-off pattern. If that pattern continues, then the winning SAG Ensemble won’t match this year’s Best Picture, but that’s pretty silly. It’s better off mentioning that there’s about a 50% chance that the winning SAG ensemble will also end up winning Best Picture.

Here are the nominees:

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Dallas Buyers Club
Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Bruce Dern / Woody Grant – “Nebraska”
Chiwetel Ejiofor / Solomon Northup – “12 Years a Slave”
Tom Hanks / Capt. Richard Phillips – “Captain Phillips”
Matthew McConaughey / Ron Woodroof – “Dallas Buyers Club”
Forest Whitaker / Cecil Gaines – “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett / Jasmine – “Blue Jasmine”
Sandra Bullock / Ryan Stone – “Gravity”
Judi Dench / Philomena Lee – “Philomena”
Meryl Streep / Violet Weston – “August: Osage County”
Emma Thompson / P.L. Travers – “Saving Mr. Banks”

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Barkhad Abdi / Muse – “Captain Phillips”
Daniel Brühl / Niki Lauda – “Rush”
Michael Fassbender / Edwin Epps – “12 Years a Slave”
James Gandolfini / Albert – “Enough Said”
Jared Leto / Rayon – “Dallas Buyers Club”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Jennifer Lawrence / Rosalyn Rosenfeld – “American Hustle”
Lupita Nyong’o / Patsey – “12 Years a Slave”
Julia Roberts / Barbara Weston – “August: Osage County”
June Squibb / Kate Grant – “Nebraska”
Oprah Winfrey / Gloria Gaines – “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”

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At this stage of the game, the two front-runners for Best Picture seem to be 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. Gravity’s absence for the SAG Ensemble award isn’t that big of a deal though, since it’s practically Sandra Bullock throughout. What I can make out from the five nominees is that American Hustle is making a push towards the top tier alongside 12 Years a Slave and Gravity as favorites. Also, Lee Daniel’s The Butler is doing very well and is on its way to making a serious push for Best Picture.

I am very surprised that Robert Redford wasn’t among the nominees for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role for All is Lost. Also, Joaquin Phoenix didn’t get nominated while Her is receiving incredible raves from groups like the National Board of Review, the American Film Institute, along with many critic circles. But the Lead Actor category is stacked this year, so we’ll have to see how this all plays out.

Meanwhile, the Lead Actress category looks to be a lock for these five actresses, with Sandra Bullock leading the way. Some are making a case for Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine, and you should never count out Meryl Streep when she’s nominated. Rounding out the nominees, I’m glad that Daniel Brühl received a nomination for his excellent performance in Rush. It was also nice to see James Gandolfini nominated in the same category. And at the end, there’s Oprah nominated for her performance in The Butler.

While this doesn’t change the predictions all that much, it definitely benefits Lee Daniel’s The Butler.

19th Annual SAG Awards Nominations

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Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:

ARGO
THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
LES MISERABLES
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

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How important are the SAG Awards when determining which actors and movies will be major contenders at the Academy Awards? Let’s just take a look back at past winners…

Last year, The Help won the big award at the SAG awards while The Artist won Best Picture at the Oscars. But the SAG awards for actors went 3-for-4, with Meryl Streep winning the Oscar over Viola Davis.

In 2010, the SAG Awards matched up with the Oscars in all categories.

In 2009, The SAG Awards gave Inglourious Basterds the final award while The Hurt Locker went on to win Best Picture (Avatar wasn’t nominated for a SAG award). But in the four acting categories, the SAGs and Oscars matched up.

In 2008, Slumdog Millionare won the SAG Award and Best Picture, but the SAGs were just 2-for-4 with the acting categories.

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So what does all of this mean? Well, the SAGs might not be the best indicator of what film is going to win Best Picture, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. But when it comes down to it, if you have the support from the SAG (the largest group of voters in The Academy), you’re on your way to win Best Picture.

Now the interesting part about this is how The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is a nominee. No one is picking this film to be nominated for Best Picture, yet here it is poking its nose right in the middle of the conversation. It will most likely be like J. Edgar of last year, but it’s still worthwhile to mention.

Another thing that has to be mentioned is how only two of the three major contenders were nominated for the SAG. Les Miserables and Lincoln comfortably made it on the SAG’s top five, but Zero Dark Thirty was ruled out. It is very possible that Zero Dark Thirty wasn’t screened for the nominating committee on time, therefore snubbing them from the big award and having The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel filling its seat instead. Still, that didn’t prevent Jessica Chastain’s guaranteed nomination for Best Lead Actress at the SAGs.

While I don’t like to weigh heavily on the SAGs, it’s important because it kicks off the Guild Awards. Also, the Golden Globe Awards will announce its nominees tomorrow. Oh what an exciting time of year this is!

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Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:

BRADLEY COOPER / Pat – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK”
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS / Abraham Lincoln – “LINCOLN”
JOHN HAWKES / Mark – “THE SESSIONS”
HUGH JACKMAN / Jean Valjean – “LES MISÉRABLES”
DENZEL WASHINGTON / Whip Whitaker – “FLIGHT”

I don’t think I was the only one surprised that Bradley Cooper sneaked into this category with his performance from Silver Linings Playbook. It was a fine performance, but can it really be put in the same category as Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln or John Hawkes in The Sessions? The surprise was how Joaquin Phoenix didn’t get a nod for his comeback performance in The Master. Maybe what he said about awards season will actually hurt him more than we anticipated.

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Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:

JESSICA CHASTAIN / Maya – “ZERO DARK THIRTY”
MARION COTILLARD / Stephanie – “RUST AND BONE”
JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Tiffany – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK”
HELEN MIRREN / Alma Reville – “HITCHCOCK”
NAOMI WATTS / Maria – “THE IMPOSSIBLE

Once again, four of the five nominees were expected. Here, I was surprised that Helen Mirren was nominated for her performance in Hitchcock. I’m still expected Keira Knightley to get a nod for her role in Anna Karenina, but nonetheless this is Jessica Chastain’s category and no one else has a chance.

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Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:

ALAN ARKIN / Lester Siegel – “ARGO”
JAVIER BARDEM / Silva – “SKYFALL”
ROBERT DE NIRO / Pat, Sr. – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK”
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN / Lancaster Dodd – “THE MASTER”
TOMMY LEE JONES / Thaddeus Stevens – “LINCOLN”

This category seems to be up in the air but the competition definitely is starting to shape up now. Seeing Javiar Bardem get a SAG nomination for his role as the villain in Skyfall is a great surprise. Meanwhile, Philip Seymour Hoffman’s nod shows how the SAG didn’t completely snub The Master

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Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:

SALLY FIELD / Mary Todd Lincoln – “LINCOLN”
ANNE HATHAWAY / Fantine – “LES MISÉRABLES”
HELEN HUNT / Cheryl – “THE SESSIONS”
NICOLE KIDMAN / Charlotte Bless – “THE PAPERBOY”
MAGGIE SMITH / Muriel Donnelly – “THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL”

More love for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel with a nod for Maggie Smith. And the SAGs went for Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy instead of Amy Adams in The Master. I’m also surprised that Jacki Weaver didn’t get noticed by the SAG for her performance in Silver Linings Playbook. But apparently this is Anne Hathaway’s lock, so I guess it doesn’t matter.