Golden Globes 2017 – Predictions

January 8, 2017

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The Golden Globes kick off the Oscar races and that is why I mainly watch this awards show. Sure, it’s fun to see all of the year’s most famous celebrities get together in one room, and occasionally get drunk and make a fool out of themselves. But for me, the Emmy’s are the true awards for television and the Oscars are the true awards for movies. With the Oscars nominations just around the corner (Jan. 24), the Golden Globes actually do matter a lot more than they used to.

So what is at stake? We all know that La La Land is the clear front-runner going into the awards season. There is nothing that the Golden Globes can take away from La La Land, because it’s expected to win most of its 7 nominations (the most of the night). Even if they don’t win certain categories like Best Score or Best Screenplay, that won’t hurt it at all until the guilds start announcing their winners.

The two films that do have a lot riding on the Golden Globes are Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea. These two films are fighting against the La La Land giant at the moment and can sure use the momentum by winning big at the Golden Globes to possibly upset the feel-good musical come February 26. Therefore, the two major categories to look out for during the Globes will be Best Drama Film and Best Director. If either Moonlight or Manchester by the Sea takes both of these awards, it will give it a nice boost going into the Oscar nominations. I have a feeling that Moonlight will be the film to receive this boost, but these two awards can easily be split by both films.

Here are all of my predictions for the Golden Globes…

Movies

Best Film – Drama:

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Prediction: Moonlight. I feel like the HFPA will go for the more daring and talked about film between critic circles, but it’s practically a toss-up between this and Manchester by the Sea.

 

Best Film – Musical or Comedy:

20th Century Women

Deadpool

Florence Foster Jenkins

La La Land

Sing Street

Prediction: This one is La La Land, end of story.

 

Best Performance in a Film – Drama

Actor:

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea as Lee Chandler

Joel Edgerton – Loving as Richard Loving

Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge as Desmond T. Doss

Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic as Ben Cash

Denzel Washington – Fences as Troy Maxson

Prediction: I’ll go with Casey Affleck mainly because Manchester by the Sea is a real threat for Best Picture early on in the Oscar race. Denzel Washington was incredible in Fences, so if there is an upset it should be him.

 

Actress:

Amy Adams – Arrival as Dr. Louise Banks

Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane as Elizabeth Sloane

Isabelle Huppert – Elle as Michèle Leblanc

Ruth Negga – Loving as Mildred Loving

Natalie Portman – Jackie as Jackie Kennedy

Prediction: I haven’t seen Jackie, but it’s hard not to expect Natalie Portman to win for that role. I’ll be rooting for Amy Adams here because her performance and the movie she starred in, Arrival, are going unnoticed.

 

Best Performance in a Film – Musical or Comedy

Actor:

Colin Farrell – The Lobster as David

Ryan Gosling – La La Land as Sebastian Wilder

Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins as St. Clair Bayfield

Jonah Hill – War Dogs as Efraim Diveroli

Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool as Wade Wilson/Deadpool

Prediction: Ryan Gosling because La La Land is on another level compared to any other film in the Musical/Comedy category this year. Gosling wasn’t as good as his co-star Emma Stone, but who else can the HFPA give this award to? Ryan Reynolds? Don’t make me laugh.

 

Actress:

Annette Bening – 20th Century Women as Dorothea Fields

Lily Collins – Rules Don’t Apply as Marla Mabrey

Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen as Nadine Franklin

Emma Stone – La La Land as Mia Dolan

Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins as Florence Foster Jenkins

Prediction: Emma Stone truly sparkled in her role in La La Land. She should win and well deserves it. But I have a soft spot for Hailee Steinfeld for her great performance in The Edge of Seventeen.

 

Best Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight as Juan

Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water as Marcus Hamilton

Simon Helberg – Florence Foster Jenkins as Cosmé McMoon

Dev Patel – Lion as Saroo Brierley

Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals as Ray Marcus

Prediction: Mahershala Ali. If Moonlight is truly as big of a player in this Oscar race like people have been suggesting, he will walk away with this award.

 

Best Supporting Actress:

Viola Davis – Fences as Rose Maxson

Naomie Harris – Moonlight as Paula

Nicole Kidman – Lion as Sue Brierley

Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures as Dorothy Vaughan

Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea as Randi

Prediction: Viola Davis was a powerhouse alongside Denzel Washington. She pulled enough of her weight around the screen that she could’ve and maybe should’ve been considered for a leading actress role. But in this category, she should be a clear winner.

 

Best Director:

Damien Chazelle – La La Land

Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals

Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Prediction: My favorite award of the Golden Globes because it’s the award that can truly match up the best films in both drama and comedy/musical categories. But to be fair, the director who has won the Best Director award at the Golden Globes, his movie has only won Best Picture at the Oscars once in the last seven years (Argo – Ben Affleck). So in hindsight, maybe you don’t want to win? Anyway, I’m predicting Barry Jenkins to win this award, just so La La Land doesn’t seem like such a clear runaway winner so early on in the Oscar race.

 

Best Screenplay:

Damien Chazelle – La La Land

Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals

Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Taylor Sheridan – Hell or High Water

Prediction: Manchester by the Sea probably has the best plot and story-line of any film nominated here. That’s why I’m going with Kenneth Lonergan.

 

Best Original Score:

Nicholas Britell – Moonlight

Justin Hurwitz – La La Land

Jóhann Jóhannsson – Arrival

Dustin O’Halloran & Hauschka – Lion

Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams & Benjamin Wallfisch – Hidden Figures

Prediction: Doesn’t La La Land HAVE to win here? The score for the film was simply lovely.

 

Best Original Song:

“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” (Max Martin, Shellback & Justin Timberlake) – Trolls

“City of Stars” (Justin Hurwitz, Pasek & Paul) – La La Land

“Faith” (Ryan Tedder, Stevie Wonder & Francis Farewell Starlite) – Sing

“Gold” (Stephen Gaghan, Danger Mouse, Daniel Pemberton & Iggy Pop) – Gold

“How Far I’ll Go” (Lin-Manuel Miranda) – Moana

Prediction: Again, doesn’t La La Land have to win here? But to be fair, I still have “Can’t Stop the Feeling” stuck in my head from the first time I heard it. Then again, Lin-Manuel Miranda is having quite the year… could Moana upset?

 

Best Animated Feature:

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

Sing

Zootopia

Prediction: Zootopia.

 

Best Foreign Language Film:

Divines (France)

Elle (France)

Neruda (Chile)

The Salesman (Iran/France)

Toni Erdmann (Germany)

Prediction: Elle

 

Television

Best TV Drama:

The Crown

Game of Thrones

Stranger Things

This Is Us

Westworld

Prediction: This is an awesome group of new shows, which makes this category extremely exciting. It’s hard not to pick Game of Thrones here as it’s arguably the most popular show on television, but it is surrounded by a bunch of new-comers that everyone has been talking about. Stranger Things is surely a popular pick and Westworld was the talk around every office week-after-week. But I’m going with The Crown. GoT has never won Best Drama at the Globes and likely won’t until its final season. Therefore, The Crown seems like the most appealing choice to the diverse HFPA.

 

Best TV Comedy:

Atlanta

Black-ish

Mozart in the Jungle

Transparent

Veep

Prediction: Veep is an Emmy darling, but for the Globes, they love rewarding new and refreshing shows. This year should go to Atlanta, Donald Glover’s comedy on FX.

 

Best Actor – Drama

Rami Malek – Mr. Robot as Elliot Alderson

Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul as James Morgan “Jimmy” McGill

Matthew Rhys – The Americans as Philip Jennings

Liev Schreiber – Ray Donovan as Raymond “Ray” Donovan

Billy Bob Thornton – Goliath as Billy McBride

Prediction: I would love to see Matthew Rhys win here, but if I was betting on this category my money would go to Rami Malek.

 

Best Actress – Drama

Caitriona Balfe – Outlander as Claire Beauchamp Randall/Fraser

Claire Foy – The Crown as Queen Elizabeth II

Keri Russell – The Americans as Elizabeth Jennings

Winona Ryder – Stranger Things as Joyce Byers

Evan Rachel Wood – Westworld as Dolores Abernathy

Prediction: Claire Foy. Done and done.

 

Best Actor – Comedy

Anthony Anderson – Black-ish as Andre “Dre” Johnson Sr.

Gael García Bernal – Mozart in the Jungle as Rodrigo De Souza

Donald Glover – Atlanta as Earnest “Earn” Marks

Nick Nolte – Graves as Richard Graves

Jeffrey Tambor – Transparent as Maura Pfefferman

Prediction: Donald Glover.

 

Best Actress – Comedy

Rachel Bloom – Crazy Ex-Girlfriend as Rebecca Nora Bunch

Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep as Selina Meyer

Sarah Jessica Parker – Divorce as Frances Dufresne

Issa Rae – Insecure as Issa Dee

Gina Rodriguez – Jane the Virgin as Jane Gloriana Villanueva

Tracee Ellis Ross – Black-ish as Dr. Rainbow “Bow” Johnson

Prediction: Julia Louis-Dreyfus is the safe pick here so I’ll go with her, but from Rachel Bloom to Gina Rodriguez, and Issa Rae from Insecure, this could be anyone’s to win.

 

Best Mini-series or TV Film:

American Crime

The Dresser

The Night Manager

The Night Of

The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Prediction: The People vs. O.J. Simpson will win here. No questions asked.

 

Best Actor – Miniseries

Riz Ahmed – The Night Of as Nasir “Naz” Khan

Bryan Cranston – All the Way as President Lyndon B. Johnson

Tom Hiddleston – The Night Manager as Jonathan Pine

John Turturro – The Night Of as John Stone

Courtney B. Vance – The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story as Johnnie Cochran

Prediction: Courtney B. Vance. Let’s get all these O.J. awards handed out early, okay?

 

Best Actress – Miniseries

Felicity Huffman – American Crime as Leslie Graham

Riley Keough – The Girlfriend Experience as Christine Reade/”Chelsea Rayne”/”Amanda Hayes”

Sarah Paulson – The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story as Marcia Clark

Charlotte Rampling – London Spy as Frances Turner

Kerry Washington – Confirmation as Anita Hill

Prediction: Sarah Paulson.

 

Best TV Supporting Actor:

Sterling K. Brown – The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story as Christopher Darden

Hugh Laurie – The Night Manager as Richard Onslow Roper

John Lithgow – The Crown as Winston Churchill

Christian Slater – Mr. Robot as Mr. Robot / Edward Alderson

John Travolta – The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story as Robert Shapiro

Prediction: John Lithgow.

 

Best TV Supporting Actress:

Olivia Colman – The Night Manager as Angela Burr

Lena Headey – Game of Thrones as Cersei Lannister

Chrissy Metz – This Is Us as Kate Pearson

Mandy Moore – This Is Us as Rebecca Pearson

Thandie Newton – Westworld as Maeve Millay

Prediction: Chrissy Metz.

 

 


2015 Golden Globe Awards (LIVE UPDATE)

January 11, 2015

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It’s that time of the year again! It’s Golden Globes time! But instead of live-blogging this yearly event, I think I’m going to mix it up a bit and post the best tweets that I can find throughout the night. Hopefully this produces one epic Tweetle Dumb post, but we’ll see. Cheers to seeing film and television actors drinking and being merry (and hopefully stumbling around a little).

7:29 p.m.

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Amen sister! Except I’m all out of wine, so I’ll be sipping on some Bulleit Rye Whiskey on the rocks.

7:55 p.m.

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lol true that. Everyone looks so damn gorgeous… well they are actors and there aren’t too many films about ugly people so yeah…

8:04 p.m.

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8:10 p.m.

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8:14 p.m.

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Loved Whiplash and thought Simmons was incredible. Well deserved.

8:17 p.m.

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8:21 p.m.

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Why not?!

8:25 p.m.

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A great win for Billy Bob Thornton for his role in Fargo, but this guy’s right. And then Thornton gives the best, short speech ever!

I’m glad Fargo (my favorite TV show of 2014) got recognition from the HFPA.

8:31 p.m.

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Clearly Eli is one of Meryl Streep’s biggest fans.

8:38 p.m.

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I was just saying this to someone lol. I haven’t seen Jane the Virgin, but have heard very good things about it. Anyway, her speech was really heart felt and it’s great to see Gina Rodriguez so legitimately happy to receive the award.

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And that’s why these awards show do matter. I was surprised that the Amazon show won as well, but I have heard good things about Transparent. Let’s see if the rest of the Globes are going to be as unpredictable…

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Way to throw your family under the bus like that! I wonder how many of them follow Vikram. By the way, Vikram is a great name.

8:49 p.m.

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That would truly be an upset to Linklater and Inarritu, the two favorites. But hey, it can happen right?

9:03 p.m.

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Imagine how the celebrities feel when he’s on stage.

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Agree to disagree I guess?

9:15 p.m.

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How to Train Your Dragon 2 upsets The Lego Movie at the Globes, and people are mad!

9:28 p.m.

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Yeah I have to agree with these tweets, some of the jokes here are just not working, though it is fun to watch how these actors/presenters are sticking with it even when they know it’s not working.

9:37 p.m.

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9:54 p.m.

The Affair wins for Best Television Drama…

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… and people are mad.

10:23 p.m.

Richard Linklater wins for Best Director at the Globes. There weren’t any funny tweets about it, so I just want to comment that Boyhood was my favorite film of 2014 and I’m hoping it takes home all of the awards it deserves.

10:27 p.m.

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I think Stanley is confused, or does he actually believe the most popular shows should be winning? Does that mean he believes The Guardians of the Galaxy was the best film of the year?

10:35 p.m.

Michael Keeton wins for Best Actor – Drama…

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… and everyone is happy! Great win for Keeton. Let’s see if he can keep up the momentum through awards season on his way to the Oscars.

10:45 p.m.

The Grand Budapest Hotel wins for Best Comedy or Musical! I bet Birdman wishes it were in the Drama category now.

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And to my surprise, people are happy for the upset! Mike’s right, Wes Anderson did deserve this. Always a man with movies that fly under the radar and that studios don’t give enough respect to.

10:55 p.m.

Julianne Moore wins Best Actress – Drama and Eddie Redmayne wins Best Actor – Drama. I haven’t seen Still Alice, but Redmayne was great in The Theory of Everything. That’s one hell of a category though and it’ll only be tougher when Michael Keeton gets thrown into the mix for the Oscars. And I still don’t think you can completely rule out Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game. As for Moore, it’s also a competitive category with great performances from Witherspoon (Wild) and Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), but it looks like she’s almost a lock to winning so early in the game.

11:01 p.m.

And the Best Drama Film goes to Boyhood. No surprise there. It was a nice telecast with a great opening monologue from the funny women and some really heart-warming speeches. Maybe I’ll throw in a few more reactions to finish this post, or maybe not. Anyway, that’s a wrap!

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Best Picture Breakdown (87th Academy Awards)

January 10, 2015

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I’ve been slacking a bit this year during the awards season but I’ll try to make up with it from this point on. This year is quite unique in the sense that it seems like it’s a wide open race for Best Picture. At this point last year we knew that Gravity and 12 Years a Slave would be favorites. The year before we knew Lincoln would be a favorite, with Argo’s momentum pushing violently towards the top. But this year? Not only isn’t there a real favorite but there are so many films that have a legitimate shot at receiving a Best Picture nomination. I would guess that there are usually about 12 or so films that have a real chance at a Best Picture nod, but this year? I counted 18.

That’s not saying that there are certainly films that are more likely to receive a nod than others. So let’s start out with our first tier films that are locks to receive a nomination.

First Tier:

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  • Birdman
  • Boyhood
  • The Imitation Game

These are the cream of the crop during this year’s awards season. They all have the support from the SAG, the Golden Globes and plenty of critic circles. Simply put, there is no doubt that these films will be nominated for Best Picture, but at the same time there isn’t a clear front-runner from these three.

Second Tier:

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– The Grand Budapest Hotel
– The Theory of Everything

These two films in the second tier are practically locked to receive a nomination for Best Picture. The Theory of Everything always felt like a Best Picture nomination with its moving story and its incredible Oscar-worthy performances from the two leads, Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones. The Grand Budapest Hotel always had the quality to be a Best Picture nominee, but I was always skeptical because it was by the quirky Wes Anderson and because it was released so early on in the year that I thought it would be quickly forgotten. Thankfully it hasn’t and has been receiving a ton of support through awards season. Look for these films to be nominated, but don’t expect either to win unless it upsets during the Guild awards.

Third Tier:

– Whiplash
– Foxcatcher
– Selma
– Into the Woods

This is when the movies get tricky. In this third tier, I find that these films have a good chance at rounding out the Best Picture nominees, but I’m not overly confident about my picks. I loved Whiplash, but aside from JK Simmons receiving attention the film isn’t quite doing enough to lock down a nomination (I blame Sony Pictures Classics for backing Foxcatcher and Mr. Turner over Whiplash). As for Foxcatcher, it’s getting attention for its actors but not really for the movie as a whole. Selma has been receiving great reviews, but it’s the epitome of the difference of opinion between the critics and the Academy. And Into the Woods is close, but missing out on that SAG Ensemble nod really is hurting its chances.

Fourth Tier:

– Gone Girl
– Nightcrawler
– Unbroken
– American Sniper

All of the films here in the fourth tier have a chance to be nominated for Best Picture, but it’s an uphill battle. Gone Girl, Nightcrawler, and American Sniper all got boosts from the PGA nominees, but still don’t have enough momentum yet to be considered Best Picture material. As for Unbroken, it’s on very thin ice at this point but I’m not willing to completely give up on it yet.

Fifth Tier:

– Interstellar
– Wild
– Mr. Turner
– A Most Violent Year
– Inherent Vice

Interstellar was one of the most highly anticipated films of the year. Will that be enough? There usually is one sci-fi film that gets nominated, including Nolan’s Inception in 2010. Wild has been great for Reese Witherspoon and even for Adapted Screenplay, but remember when Into the Wild didn’t receive an expected Best Picture/Best Director nod? Wild could have the same fate. As for Mr. Turner, A Most Violent Year, and Inherent Vice, all are films from very talented directors but haven’t been as well-received from the Academy as they expected.


Golden Globes Awards 2014 Predictions

January 10, 2014

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The 71st Golden Globes Awards will take place this Sunday. Being the first major awards show, the Globes really have no pressure on them, which is the point exactly. Where else could you gather a large amount of the past year’s movie and TV stars in one hall with dinner and most importantly, with drinks being poured. That’s what makes it a must-watch, fun ceremony, compared to the mostly serious (and more prestigious) Academy Awards.

Anyway, here are my predictions for the Golden Globes Awards:

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

“12 Years a Slave”
“Captain Phillips”
“Gravity”
“Philomena”
“Rush”

Prediction: “12 Years a Slave”

This race is between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, arguably the two best films of the year. While Gravity is likely the more popular pick, I’m going with my gut and predicting 12 Years a Slave. What hurts its chances is how it’s a hard movie to watch with its subject and gruesome violence. And the Golden Globes usually goes with the more popular choice. Gravity is one of the highest grossing films of the year and is definitely the more popular option, but I’m still predicting a minor upset.

Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

“American Hustle”
“Her”
“Inside Llewyn Davis”
“Nebraska”
“The Wolf of Wall Street”

Prediction: “American Hustle”

While the category is full of great films, I feel like this is a slam dunk for American Hustle. It’s one of the Oscar front-runners (the other two are in the Drama category) and should win the Globes award easily.

Best Actress in a motion picture (Drama)

Cate Blanchett – “Blue Jasmine”
Sandra Bullock – “Gravity”
Judi Dench – “Philomena
Emma Thompson – “Saving Mr. Banks”
Kate Winslet – “Labor Day”

Prediction: Cate Blanchett – “Blue Jasmine”

Blanchett is the clear front-runner during the awards season and should win here. Bullock and Dench could upset, but I’d say it’s very unlikely.

Best Actor in a motion picture (Drama)

Chiwetel Ejiofor – “12 Years a Slave”
Idris Elba – “Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom”
Tom Hanks – “Captain Phillips”
Matthew McConaughey – “Dallas Buyers Club”
Robert Redford – “All Is Lost”

Prediction: Chiwetel Ejiofor – “12 Years a Slave”

McConaughey has been receiving a lot of attention and could very well win this award because let’s face it, he’s a lot more popular than Ejiofor. But Ejiofor, without a doubt, gave the most emotional performance of the year and should be rewarded for it. Meanwhile, Redford plays the dark horse for All is Lost, as he’s the only actor in the physically draining film.

Best Actress in a motion picture (Musical/Comedy)

Amy Adams – “American Hustle”
Julie Delpy – “Before Midnight”
Greta Gerwig – “Frances Ha”
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – “Enough Said”
Meryl Streep – “August: Osage County”

Prediction: Greta Gerwig – “Frances Ha”

All signs are pointing to Meryl Streep, because well she’s Meryl Streep. Amy Adams is probably second to her in this category because she was really able to carry American Hustle more than any of her co-stars. But I’m going with the upset here and saying Greta Gerwig will win. It’ll put her and the underrated Frances Ha on the map towards the Academy Awards.

Best Actor in a motion picture (Musical/Comedy)

Christian Bale – “American Hustle”
Bruce Dern – “Nebraska”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Wolf Of Wall Street”
Oscar Isaac – “Inside Llewyn Davis”
Joaquin Phoenix – “Her”

Prediction: Bruce Dern – “Nebraska”

Did I mention how the Musical/Comedy categories are stacked? All of these actors deserve to win the award. I’m assuming the Globes are going to pass on Phoenix and Isaac and concentrate on the bigger names of the group. This definitely puts DiCaprio up there, but my gut’s telling me that Bruce Dern is going to win.

Best Supporting Actress in a motion picture

Sally Hawkins – “Blue Jasmine”
Jennifer Lawrence – “American Hustle”
Lupita Nyong’o – “12 Years a Slave”
Julia Roberts – “August: Osage County”
June Squibb – “Nebraska”

Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence – “American Hustle”

Here we have another race between two youngsters. Jennifer Lawrence was a stand-out in American Hustle and already with an Oscar statue from last year, she’s practically a veteran. But Lupita Nyong’o gave such a powerful performance in 12 Years a Slave, you just can’t ignore it. Since this is the Globes, I’m guessing Lawrence will edge out the win.

Best Supporting Actor in a motion picture

Barkhad Abdi – “Captain Phillips”
Daniel Brühl – “Rush”
Bradley Cooper – “American Hustle”
Michael Fassbender – “12 Years a Slave”
Jared Leto – “Dallas Buyers Club”

Prediction: Jared Leto – “Dallas Buyers Club”

Leto is the clear favorite here and will have his chances even higher if McConaughey isn’t seen as a front-runner in his race. Like McConaughey, Leto transformed himself physically for the role in Dallas Buyers Club and is arguably the most memorable part of the movie.

Best Director – motion picture

Alfonso Cuarón – “Gravity”
Paul Greengrass – “Captain Phillips”
Steve McQueen – “12 Years a Slave”
Alexander Payne – “Nebraska”
David O. Russell – “American Hustle”

Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón – “Gravity”

I can’t imagine Alfonso Cuaron not being recognized for the feat he accomplished in Gravity, a picture that no director has even attempted before. He was able to wow you with his advance technology and also have a complex, emotional story-line with a handful of suspenseful twists. It’s simply the most impressive work of any director this year.

Best Screenplay – motion picture

Spike Jonze – “Her”
Bob Nelson – “Nebraska”
Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan – “Philomena”
John Ridley – “12 Years a Slave”
Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell – “American Hustle”

Prediction: Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell – “American Hustle”

While I really would love to see Spike Jonze take this award, I can only imagine American Hustle receiving a big boost of momentum after the Golden Globes, and winning Best Screenplay will surely help.

Best Foreign Language Film

“Blue is the Warmest Color”
“The Great Beauty”
“The Hunt”
“The Past”
“The Wind Rises”

Prediction: “The Hunt”

This could go to either The Hunt, The Past, or the challenging Blue is the Warmest Color. I’m thinking The Hunt will edge out the others.

Best Animated Feature Film

“The Croods”
“Despicable Me 2”
“Frozen”

Prediction: “Frozen”

This is a no-brainer.

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

“Atlas” – “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire”
“Let It Go” – “Frozen”
“Ordinary Love” – “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”
“Please Mr. Kennedy” – “Inside Llewyn Davis”
“Sweeter Than Fiction” – “One Chance”

Prediction: “Let It Go” – “Frozen”

Best Original Score – Motion Picture

Alex Ebert – “All is Lost”
Alex Heffes – “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”
Steven Price – “Gravity”
John Williams – “The Book Thief”
Hans Zimmer – “12 Years a Slave”

Prediction: Steven Price – “Gravity”

Television Categories

Best TV Series (Drama)

“Breaking Bad”
“Downton Abbey”
“The Goodwife”
“House of Cards”
“Masters of Sex”

Prediction: Breaking Bad

How can Breaking Bad lose this category? One of the best dramas of all-time finally comes to an end. The Globes will reward it.

Best TV Series (Comedy)

“The Big Bang Theory”
“Brooklyn Nine-Nine”
“Girls”
“Modern Family”
“Parks and Recreation”

Prediction: Modern Family

We’re sort of beating the dead horse on this one, but I don’t see how it’ll be any different. Girls could big for an upset. Brooklyn Nine-Nine is a favorite, but I can’t see a new show beating out the rest in this category.

Best TV movie or mini-series

“American Horror Story: Coven”
“Behind the Candelabra”
“Dancing on the Edge”
“Top of the Lake”
“The White Queen”

Prediction: “Behind the Candelabra”

Best Actress in a TV series (Drama)

Julianna Margulies – “The Good Wife”
Tatiana Maslany – “Orphan Black”
Taylor Schilling – “Orange is the New Black”
Kerry Washington – “Scandal”
Robin Wright – “House of Cards”

Prediction: Kerry Washington – “Scandal”

Best Actor in a TV series (Drama)

Bryan Cranston – “Breaking Bad”
Liev Schreiber – “Ray Donovan”
Michael Sheen – “Masters of Sex”
Kevin Spacey – “House of Cards”
James Spader – “The Blacklist”

Prediction: Bryan Cranston – “Breaking Bad”

Best Actress in a TV Series (Comedy)

Zooey Deschanel – “New Girl”
Lena Dunham – “Girls”
Edie Falco – “Nurse Jackie”
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – “Veep”
Amy Poehler – “Parks and Recreation”

Prediction: Julia Louis-Dreyfus – “Veep”

Best Actor, TV Series (Comedy)

Jason Bateman – “Arrested Development”
Don Cheadle – “House of Lies”
Michael J. Fox – “The Michael J. Fox Show”
Jim Parsons – “The Big Bang Theory”
Andy Samberg – “Brooklyn Nine-Nine”

Prediction: Michael J. Fox – “The Michael J. Fox Show”

Best Actress in a mini-series or TV movie

Helena Bonham Carter – “Burton and Taylor”
Rebecca Ferguson – “White Queen”
Jessica Lange – “American Horror Story: Coven”
Helen Mirren – “Phil Spector”
Elisabeth Moss – “Top of the Lake”

Prediction: Elisabeth Moss – “Top of the Lake”

Best Actor in a mini-series or TV movie

Matt Damon – “Behind the Candelabra”
Michael Douglas – “Behind the Candelabra”
Chiwetel Ejiofor – “Dancing on the Edge”
Idris Elba – “Luther”
Al Pacino – “Phil Spector”

Prediction: Michael Douglas – “Behind the Candelabra”

Best Supporting Actress in a series, mini-series, or TV movie

Jacqueline Bisset – “Dancing on the Edge”
Janet McTeer – “White Queen”
Hayden Panettiere – “Nashville”
Monica Potter – “Parenthood”
Sofia Vergara – “Modern family”

Prediction: Monica Potter – “Parenthood”

Best Supporting Actor in a series, mini-series or TV movie

Josh Charles – “The Good Wife”
Rob Lowe- “Behind the Candelabra”
Aaron Paul – “Breaking Bad”
Corey Stoll – “House of Cards”
Jon Voight -” Ray Donovan”

Prediction: Jon Voight -” Ray Donovan”


Golden Globes Nominations 2014

December 13, 2013

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Best Picture, Drama

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • Captain Phillips
  • Gravity
  • Philomena
  • Rush

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical

  • American Hustle
  • Her
  • Inside Llewyn Davis
  • Nebraska
  • The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Director

  • Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
  • Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
  • Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
  • Alexander Payne, Nebraska
  • David O. Russell, American Hustle

Best Actress

  • Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
  • Sandra Bullock, Gravity
  • Judi Dench, Philomena
  • Emma Thompson, Saving Mr Banks
  • Kate Winslet, Labor Day

Best Actor

  • Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
  • Idris Elba, Mandela
  • Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
  • Matthew McConaghey, Dallas Buyers Club
  • Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Best Actor Comedy/Musical

  • Christian Bale, American Hustle
  • Bruce Dern, Nebraska
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
  • Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Best Actress Comedy/Musical

  • Amy Adams, American Hustle
  • Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
  • Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
  • Julia Louis Dreyfuss, Enough Said
  • Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Best Supporting Actor

  • Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
  • Daniel Bruhl, Rush
  • Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
  • Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
  • Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Best Supporting Actress

  • Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
  • Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
  • Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
  • Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
  • June Squibb, Nebraska

Best Screenplay

  • Her, Spike Jonze
  • Nebraska, Bob Nelson
  • Philomena, Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan
  • 12 Years a Slave, John Ridley
  • American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Blue is the Warmest Color
  • The Great Beauty
  • The Hunt
  • The Past
  • The Wind Rises

Best Original Song

  • Atlas (Hunger Games)
  • Let it Go (Frozen)
  • Ordinary Love (Mandela)
  • Please Mr. Kennedy (Inside Llewyn Davis)
  • Sweeter Fiction (One Chance)

Best Score

  • All is Lost, Alex Ebert
  • Mandela, Alex Heffes
  • Gravity, Steven Price
  • Book Thief, John Williams
  • 12 Years a Slave, Hans Zimmer

Best Animated Feature

  • The Croods
  • Despicable Me 2
  • Frozen

American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave both received seven nominations, leading all movies in the upcoming Golden Globes. Do we have a legitimate trio of movies competing for Best Picture? Possibly.

As we all know, the split for Drama and Comedy/Musical at the Golden Globes skews the way to perceive movies winning. It’s their way of having ten nominations, which used to double the five Best Picture nominations from a few years ago. So what can we take from the nominees? In the Best Picture, Drama category we will see the 12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity showdown. These two have been front-runners for months and this match-up is like the Yankees vs. the Red Sox. It’s what everyone expected and it’s what everyone will be watching come January 12, 2014.

In the Comedy/Musical category, it’s a lot more wide open, that is unless you expect American Hustle to be a top three contender. But there’s no reason to believe that yet. What we have here are five very very good films with great reviews, actors, and directors. At this point in the game, I don’t see one clear winner. American Hustle has the hot hand with David O. Russell’s recent success and Jennifer Lawrence as arguably the biggest actress, so I’d put that as a slight favorite. Is it really much better than the rest of the nominees though?

Her is creeping into a serious contender ranking on plenty top ten lists with Joaquin Phoenix and Spize Jonze. Nebraska has Alexander Payne and Bruce Dern who are very much due for some accolades. Then The Wold of Wall Street teams up Scorsese with DiCaprio, who might be the best director/actor combo in history. And never count out the Coen brothers with Inside Llewyn Davis. Needless to say, this is a tough category.

The Best Director category sheds some light to how the HFPA feels about the Best Picture nominees. From the ten nominations, they pick five for Best Director. Three are from Drama films and two are from Comedy/Musical. It’s strange to think of a year of movies where Ron Howard, Martin Scorsese, and the Coen brothers have films nominated but were snubbed for Best Director. But that simply shows you how competitive this year is.

Now let’s get into some snubs. With an impressive showing at the SAG Awards nominations, Lee Daniel’s The Butler was ignored completely. That’s right. Nothing for Forest Whitaker and nothing for Oprah. And Saving Mr. Banks only received one nomination for Emma Thompson. Tom Hanks’s as Walt Disney was snubbed, which is having people question his chances when just a day ago it seemed like a lock.

We have the SAG and the Golden Globes nominations. For the record, the SAG Awards nominations mean a lot more when predicting the Oscars because they’re actually a part of The Academy. That being said, The Butler and Saving Mr. Banks is still very well in the picture. So is August: Osage County and Dallas Buyers Club. Meanwhile, Philomena is hovering right at the border right now. Judi Dench is a lock for a nomination, but can the film sneak in for Best Picture? There are still plenty of guild nominations to come.

 


Oscar Talk 2012: The DGA Awards are important (in case you didn’t know)

January 29, 2013

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We all want to be able to correctly predict what film is going to win Best Picture. It’s something you can wildly debate about with your friends for countless hours, and then have the bragging rights if you select the winner. There are even Vegas odds and bets placed on the prestigious night. But while I’ve been in the game of Oscar watching for almost a decade now, there is still only one thing that I know: your guess is as good as mine.

I guess it’s kind of funny for me to admit that, but year after year that is what I keep saying. I’ll give my predictions and my reasons for believing in certain movies and certain upsets, but the truth is that your guess is as good as mine and as good as anyone else’s. If I somehow correctly predict 23 out of the 24 awards given out, I’ll be the first one to tell you that it was luck. Why do I keep doing it? Because it’s so much freakin’ fun.

So back to the game, this past weekend revealed that Argo seems to be back as the front-runner for Best Picture. Winning the PGA and the SAG awards is a pretty big deal. Am I ready to call it for Argo yet? No. It still has the HUGE obstacle of winning without a Best Director nod for Affleck, but if it wins this Saturday at the DGA awards and then gets the WGA, well it’ll practically be a lock then for Argo.

But just because it won the PGA and SAG doesn’t mean it’s a lock quite yet. In 1995, there was a crowd-pleasing film about an American event that went down this same path. Apollo 13 won the PGA, SAG, and even the DGA for Ron Howard (and also Howard didn’t get a Best Director nomination). It was expected for Apollo 13 to take the Oscars, but Braveheart swooped in with the upsets winning Best Picture (and Best Director for Mel Gibson, even though Howard wasn’t nominated).

Needless to say, this is a very strange road to the Oscars that we’ve been on thus far. You know what would really throw a wrench in the whole thing? If Ben Affleck or Steven Spielberg DOESN’T win the DGA. Imagine that? Because whoever wins the DGA out of those two will easily become the front-runner going into the Oscars. But let’s say… Ang Lee wins the DGA (which he’s won twice already). That would really throw a curve-ball at everyone, but at the same time it would hurt Spielberg and Lincoln more than anything else.

ben-affleck-argo      spielberg-lincoln

Okay… so where do we stand? Silver Linings Playbook has NO chance at Best Picture since it lost the SAG where it was expected to win. And unless Ang Lee can win the DGA, you can count Life of Pi completely out as well. As for Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild, well they’re just happy to be there. So it’s Lincoln vs. Argo down the stretch of the last month before the Oscars air.

Here’s a little bit of history, something like what we’ll be referring back to in the future if Argo wins Best Picture. Driving Miss Daisy is the only film to win Best Picture without a directing nod in 80 years and many people are comparing it to Argo. Born on the Fourth of July was a film that looked like was on its way to a Best Picture win. Here are the accolades for both films leading up to the Oscars:

Driving Miss Daisy
– won PGA
– won Golden Globes Comedy/Musical
– won WGA

Born on the Fourth of July
– won DGA
– won Best Director
– won Golden Globes Director and Drama

Though tradition was on Born of the Fourth of July’s side, Driving Miss Daisy made history with its Best Picture victory. Only once in the last 10 years has the Best Picture winner not matched the Best Director (Crash beating out Brokeback Mountain). So like I said earlier, there is a very good chance that history will be made… that is unless Spielberg wins the DGA and Lincoln sweeps at the Oscars. If that’s the case, we can all just have a good laugh.


Oscar Talk 2012: So Where Are We?

January 25, 2013

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Remember at the Golden Globes when Ben Affleck and Argo won? Well, that has people throwing their hands up in the air with all sorts of celebratory reactions as their favorite movie of the year is finally gaining the respect they feel it deserves. But what does all of this mean with the Oscars only a month away? Does it mean anything at all?

In past years, it might not have. Here are the movies that won both Best Picture Drama and Comedy/Musuical the past 8 years at the Golden Globes:

2012 – Argo and Les Miserables
2011 – The Descendants and The Artist
2010 – The Social Network and The Kids are All Right
2009 – Avatar and The Hangover
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire and Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2007 – Atonement and Sweeney Todd
2006 – Babel and Dreamgirls
2005 – Brokeback Mountain and Walk the Line
2004 – The Aviator and Sideways

From the past 16 movies that won in the last 8 years, only 2 movies have won the Best Picture Oscar. That’s right, only TWO (The Artist and Slumdog Millionaire). So why is everyone jumping on the Argo bandwagon again? I honestly have no idea.

But this weekend the PGA and SAG will announce their winners. After this weekend, we will be able to have a much clearer projection of what will happen at the Oscars. If Argo wins both PGA and SAG, then I’ll admit that Lincoln might be in trouble. If Silver Linings Playbook (in my opinion, the biggest threat to Lincoln) doesn’t win the SAG, then it’s almost as good as dead.

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Back to Argo. Here’s a fun fact for all of those Argo supporters. No director has ever won the DGA, not gotten nominated for an Oscar, and then had their film win BP. Ever. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it would be an insane feat for Affleck to win the DGA and then see Argo win Best Picture. I’m a big fan of “history repeats itself” and will stick with that mindset over anything else.

If Lincoln gets shut out this weekend and both Argo and Silver Linings Playbook wins, then I’m really going to throw a fit. This could be the most unpredictable Oscars in a very long time, and while that’s frustrating for people like me, honestly it’s the best thing that could happen to the Oscars. I’d much rather be dead wrong and see Lincoln win only one Oscar while Argo wins Best Picture and Ang Lee wins Best Director than see Lincoln sweep the major awards.

Lincoln-photo

But I’ll still speak what I believe in, and that is Lincoln is the clear front-runner with every other film miles behind. Here are the reasons why:

– Lincoln has the most nominations (12)
– Lincoln has grossed the most money of all nominations
– Has 3 acting nominations and one clear favorite (Daniel Day-Lewis)
– It has ALL of the important nominations
– Steven Spielberg

While Lincoln isn’t many people’s (including mine) favorite film, you cannot ignore how well-made it is. Excellence is displayed on every level of that film, and shouldn’t films like that be rewarded?


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