Predictions: The 86th Academy Awards

oscars-86th

We’re just a couple days away from the 86th Academy Awards! Are you excited?! Well you should be! Ellen is hosting, so you should expect some clean but entertaining humor throughout the night since she’s always a pleasure. On top of that, this is arguably one of the most unpredictable years, especially for big awards such as Best Picture and Best Lead Actor. In this post, I’m going to attempt to predict who WILL win while my buddy, Mike, will give his take on who SHOULD win. Let’s go!

Best Picture

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Rob: This might be the toughest match-up of the entire night, but hey you get to save the best for last! This is a race between three movies: American Hustle, Gravity, and 12 Years a Slave. Each of them have reasons why they will win, which I have explored in previous posts. When it comes down to it, I just have to go with my gut. My gut is saying that there is a pretty decent chance that American Hustle can go through the entire night without winning an award. The record is held by The Turning Point (1977) and The Color Purple (1985) for having 11 nominations each, but laying a goose egg. American Hustle is nominated for 10 awards and has the best chance at winning Best Supporting Actress (Jennifer Lawrence), Best Original Screenplay, and Best Costume Design. I do feel like Lawrence will win her second Oscar though, beating out Nyong’o, so that takes care of the shut out.

As for Gravity and its 10 nominations, it’s set to win the most awards of the night, there’s no question about that. It should win most of the technical categories, along with Best Director for Alfonso Cuaron. The question is, if over 60% of the time the Best Picture and Best Director lines up, then why isn’t Gravity a heavy favorite to win Best Picture? Frankly, I have no idea. 12 Years a Slave seems to have that “important” factor, the one movie that everyone thinks SHOULD win. If you’re going to take the Oscars seriously, you’ll most likely vote for 12 Years a Slave. But for Gravity, the one thing it has going is how it’s generally liked by everyone. It’s not the difficult and violent picture that 12 Years a Slave is, and it’s much deeper and inspiring than the loose and fun American Hustle. If Gravity can rack up a good number of #2 and #3 votes during the preferential voting, then Gravity will take the big award.

But my prediction has to go with 12 Years a Slave, no matter how many awards Gravity wins throughout the night. It has good momentum going into the weekend and has the every-so-important PGA award (though Gravity also won). And when it comes down to it, 12 Years a Slave is the most emotional film of the Best Picture nominees. Sure, it’s a smaller film but it connects with the audience more than Gravity or American Hustle. You can almost make a connection to when The Hurt Locker beat Avatar. Avatar and Gravity are both 3-D heavy movies, and for one, the Academy might not be ready to reward a 3-D film yet. But more importantly, The Hurt Locker and 12 Years a Slave are familiar with its story-telling. Both films were considered “important” and “emotional”, both didn’t gross that much money compared to their Goliath rivals, and The Hurt Locker made history with Kathryn Bigelow being the first woman director ever to win. If 12 Years a Slave wins, it will consist of the first African American producers, actors, screenwriter, and director to win. I think everyone is aware of this and I feel like this isn’t going to be a situation like Brokeback Mountain where the Academy shied away from a tough subject matter. I feel that The Academy is ready to reward such a monumental film.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Mike: So after I made all my picks to the categories leading up to Best Picture, you’ll see that I clearly think Gravity should win. Gravity was just a superior film. You could say the acting was a bit weak in comparison to other nominees, and I might be inclined to agree with you, but that doesn’t overshadow the fact that Gravity was superior in almost every other category. To have a film that exceeds expectations at every turn, well some could say that’s “not of this Earth.” I loved Gravity because it is a film I will surely watch over and over again. I really hope it wins the Oscar, but if it doesn’t, it still won the Oscar in my heart.

Should Win: Gravity

Best Director

David O. Russell – American Hustle
Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity
Alexander Payne – Nebraska
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Rob: It’s hard not to pick Alfonso Cuaron here, especially since he’s won so many awards leading up to the Oscars. How do you not appreciate the brilliance that Gravity is, from a directorial standpoint? Could anyone else made such a fascinating and beautiful movie?

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)

Mike: Marty! for the win!!!!! Lets face it, Marty Scorsese is the MAN! Plain and simple. I wasn’t sure based off the previews and a three hour run-time that I wanted to even see The Wolf of Wall Street. But I did see it, and it was awesome! It was not only hilarious and incredibly well acted, but the pace of the film was spectacular. I left the theater and only felt like I was in there for 45 minutes! If that is saying something, then it’s good directing.  He knew how to pace the story and how to get the perfect performances out of his actors. Wolf was just a fun ride to watch. They should call him Marty Oscor-sese

Should Win: Martin Scorsese

Best Actor

Christian Bale – American Hustle
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

Rob: Aside from the Best Picture race, this might be the closest category and one with a lot of upset potential. The whole year, McConaughey has been sweeping up the awards for Best Actor, including the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards (which DiCaprio wasn’t nominated). Meanwhile, Chiwetel Ejiofor has been the critics’ darling, winning the majority of their awards for his powerful performance. But here’s the twist! Leonardo DiCaprio has taken the scene by storm, offering an even bigger possible surprise come March 2. DiCaprio has been floating under the radar all season long because of the late release date for The Wolf of Wall Street. But by now, everyone has seen the Scorsese masterpiece. There is certainly a lot of love for Leo in The Academy and he’s definitely due for an Oscar. But is there a hotter actor than McConaughey at the moment? All three men are deserving for this award, but which one will take it?

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

Mike: I think Leo should win for Best Actor. Why you ask? Leo is possibly the only true movie star left in Hollywood. Plus, the man gives an incredible performance in Scorsese’s film. Just when I thought he couldn’t get any better, he goes and knocks it out of the park. His performance led us into the mind of a money-hungry individual who will stop at nothing to preserve himself. He was giving us a class in masters acting.

Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Actress

Amy Adams – American Hustle
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Judi Dench – Philomena
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

Rob: There’s no contest here.

Will Win: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

Mike: I think Meryl Streep should win. Because its Meryl freaking Streep! She was great in August: Osage county who plays a character you hate and yet somehow can relate to. Another home run performance from the master herself. That’s all I have to say about that.

Should Win: Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Rob: There’s not much to write about this category. While there are some great performances nominated, Jared Leto is a lock to win.

Will win: Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Mike: I think anyone BUT Jared Leto should win. I know Leto will end up winning this category and I think he did a great job in Dallas Buyers Club. But I think every other single nominee did a better acting job than he did. Abdi did an amazing job as a pirate in Captain Phillips. Bradley Cooper was awesome in American Hustle. You really believed he was naive and power hungry throughout the film. Michael Fassbender was scary good in 12 Years a Slave. He is almost too convincing as a slave owner. And as for Jonah Hill… if you would have told me 3 years ago that Jonah Hill would be a two-time Oscar nominee, I woulds slapped you in the face and laughed. But damn can that kid bring it. He was awesome in Wolf of Wall Street and I think he edges out the rest of the competition.

Should Win: Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
June Squibb – Nebraska

Rob: We have quite a race in this category between Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence. Nyong’o is the new kid on the block since 12 Years a Slave is her first film, while it’s safe to say that Jennifer Lawrence has been the most popular actress for the past few years. Lawrence won the Golden Globes, but Nyong’o won the SAG award. This is practically a coin flip if you ask me. If 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture, it should win a few other big awards such as this one. But then again, like I said earlier this might be American Hustle’s best chance at winning an Oscar. And let’s be honest, who doesn’t want to see Jennifer Lawrence trip up the stairs to the podium again?

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

Mike: I think Lupita Nyong’o should win for Best Supporting Actress. She nailed her part in 12 Years a Slave and I felt horrible for her character and what she had to go through, especially having a slave owner like Fassbender who was using her in the wort ways possible. Her performance was haunting and will not be easily forgotten for years to come.

Should Win: Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave

Best Original Screenplay

American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska

Rob: This will be David O. Russell’s third nomination for a screenplay category, but he’s up against the slight favorite, Spike Jonze for his screenplay for Her. This is Jonze’s first nomination for a screenplay, but he has a lot of support from the WGA. All signs are pointing at Jonze to win his first Oscar since he’s already won the Golden Globes for Best Screenplay and the WGA. Russell is certainly a spoiler possibility since there is still plenty of support for American Hustle, but I think Jonze will and should win.

Will Win: Her (Spike Jonze)

Mike: Possibly my favorite category every year, I think Her should win this category. The writing in this film was simply awesome. It’s full of down to earth crude humor, including phone sex, plus talking computers, and yet still managed to be incredibly moving and emotional. If that isn’t great writing then I don’t know what is. Jonze took a traditional story and re-imagined it with something that has been done to death, yet this still take seemed fresh and fascinating. It also did a great job of capturing a feel of where we are going to be very soon in society. This is awesome times ten.

Should Win: Her (Spike Jonze)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Rob: This is John Ridley’s to win for 12 Years a Slave. Ridley has been nominated once before for co-writing Three Kings with David O. Russell, but this is his year to shine.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)

Mike: Wolf of Wall Street should win for Best Adapted Screenplay. This was one of the funniest films of the year, and I don’t think there is a single joke in the film. That’s quite an accomplishment that takes good writing. There were also some really good monologues for both DiCaprio and McConaughey, and just a general tone with words that was fun to listen to. Also lets not forget to mention it had the most uses of the F word, ever. That sounds like an Oscar to me!

Should Win: The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Score

The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks

Rob: Gravity is favorite to win this category, like it is with most of the technical categories. Though there is a slight road block in its way in the shape and form of the rock star power of William Butler (Arcade Fire). Butler and Owen Pallett scored Her, a film that is certaily beloved by many, which means it could make a serious push to try to win at least one award (though I still think its best chance is for Best Original Screenplay). Also, the legend that is John Williams is nominated for his work on The Book Thief. This is his 49th nomination!

Will Win: Gravity

Mike: Gravity should win here, in my opinion. A small part of the reason I’m picking Gravity is because none of the other nominees really jumped out at me. Where is American Hustle’s nomination? Or even The Hunger Games: Catching Fire? Both of those films had really cool original scores. Anyway, Gravity had a very different feel to the score. There were a lot of violins and it really felt kind of mechanical, which blended really well with the visuals of the film.

Should Win: Gravity

Best Original Song

“Happy” from Despicable Me 2
“Let It Go” from Frozen
“The Moon Song” from Her
“Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
“Alone, Yet Not Alone” from Alone Yet Not Alone

Rob: Frozen’s “Let It Go” is certainly the favorite, and it definitely deserves the award, but just like the Best Score category there is an obstacle in its way… the star power of U2 will try and upset the front-runner. U2’s “Ordinary Love” in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom won the Golden Globes award for Best Original Song, in the year that the great Nelson Mandela passed away. While I’m sticking with my gut, there is a strong stench of upset all over this.

Will Win: “Let It Go”

Mike: “Let It Go” from Frozen should win here.This movie was just a massive hit and that has a lot to do with the songs, with “Let It Go” as the stand-out selection. It’s being touted as the best animated film in a long time, and I’d have to agree with that. Also, it helps having a Broadway veteran belt out this powerful girl-power tune.

Should Win: “Let It Go”

Best Film Editing

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave

Rob: This one is a two-way race between Gravity and Captain Phillips. In Captain Phillips’ corner, Christopher Rouse has worked with director Paul Greengrass before. Rouse has won an Oscar for The Bourne Ultimatum, and also received a nod for United 93. Greengrass and Rouse are known for their very quick cuts and fast editing to enhance suspense and tension in a frantic way. Meanwhile, Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger edited Gravity. Cuaron has been nominated once before for Children of Men. What really has made my mind is how this award tends to go towards thrillers. Past winners include Argo, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and Slumdog Millionaire. Captain Phillips fits into this group of films more than Gravity does.

Will Win: Captain Phillips

Mike: OK, by now its going to seem as if i am very bias toward this movie, but again I think Gravity should win. My reasoning for this is while watching the movie I wasn’t aware of the “cuts” during the film. It seemed seamless. The transitions just weren’t noticeable, and when you watch a film that is a rare occurrence. Plus, to really make all the action in space feel believable, that includes plenty of editing tricks. Overall, Gravity has accomplished movie magic unlike any movie before.

Should Win: Gravity

Best Cinematography

The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners

Rob: Once again, Gravity is the heavy favorite here. Emmanuel Lubezki is a great cinematographer and his work in Gravity is simply stunning. He’s been nominated five times before for films such as The Tree of Life and Children of Men, but has yet to win. You can say that he’s over-due.

Spoiler Alert: Roger Deakins is nominated for his work in Prisoners. This is Deakin’s 11th nomination for Best Cinematography and he has yet to win! Will The Academy finally award Deakins the award that has eluded him for two decades? Some of his works include The Shawshank Redemption, No Country for Old Men, and Skyfall. Honestly, if Deakins steals this one from Gravity, I wouldn’t be upset.

Will Win: Gravity

Mike: Gravity should win for Best Cinematography. First of all, it’s a tragedy that The Wolf of Wall Street was snubbed from this category! But Gravity is a visually awesome film, you just cannot deny that. The wide shots of Earth, fixed in with the backgrounds of space really makes for some great eye candy that the cinematography had to imagine on his own while filming. I can’t imagine how difficult that must have been. So my pick goes to Gravity.

Should Win: Gravity

Best Visual Effects

Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness

Rob: I’m not sure if there isn’t a more sure bet than this category. Gravity will certainly win this award.

Win Win: Gravity

Mike: Gravity should win this award, hands down! This was a film that made me feel like I was in outer space. Not that I was watching people in space, but that I was actually floating around myself! This is just a masterfully orchestrated visual landscape between space and Earth that left my brain gasping for oxygen. Beautiful!

Should Win: Gravity

Best Sound Editing

All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor

Best Sound Mixing

Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor

Rob: These awards should be towards the beginning of the telecast and when when Gravity will start racking up the awards. Being nominated for all 7 technical categories, there’s no doubt that Gravity was an amazing visual and special effects masterpiece. It shouldn’t have any problem winning these, especially when one movie usually ends up winning both awards, such as impressive technical films like Inception and Hugo.

Will Win: Gravity/Gravity

Mike: Let me preface both of these categories by saying it is next to impossible to identify how well thse jobs are done when watching a film in theaters. That being said, I think Gravity should win for Sound Editing because there were so many different elements of sound that needed to be keenly edited in order to sound realistic. Whether it was the breathing of Sandra Bullock or the jet thrusters on George Clooney, these sounds were very specific to the environment they were in.

Also, Gravity should win for Best Sound Mixing. They were able to combine all the different sounds so smoothly. It made for an acoustically believable film.

Should Win: Gravity/Gravity

Best Costume Design

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman

Rob: Period films usually win this award, so it looks like it’s going to be American Hustle vs. The Great Gatsby here. It’s really tough not to pick The Great Gatsby for both categories, especially since Catherine Martin is a past winner. But then again, there’s Patricia Norris (12 Years a Slave) who is a six-time Oscar nominee seeking her first golden statue. While American Hustle has a better chance upsetting than 12 Years a Slave does, I think Martin will win Best Costume Design.

Will Win: The Great Gatsby

Mike: American Hustle should win Best Costume Design. The film did a great job of re-creating the period and the costumes really  made me feel like they were in the ’80s. If I could pick a close second it would be 12 Years a Slave, because they also did a great job re-creating the period.

Should Win: American Hustle

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

Rob: I can’t see Dallas Buyers Club losing this category, unless voters feel that the actors did most of the work by losing weight. I guess there’s a chance that Bad Grandpa can pull off the upset, but honestly, I can’t predict anyone else than DBC here.

Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club

Mike: I really feel like The Lone Ranger should win here. My simple reason is because there was the most amount of work to be done in this film. You have two versions of Johnny Depp’s Tonto, and both required a lot of makeup and hairstyling. It was a really well done job and I think better than the other nominees.

Should Win: The Lone Ranger

Best Production Design

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her

Rob: Let’s face it, Best Production Design has rarely gone to the winner of Best Picture. So it’s almost safe to say we can simply rule out 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity right from the get-go. In the past 10 years, six winners have been period pieces (Lincoln, Hugo, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Pan’s Labyrinth, Memoirs of a Geisha, and The Aviator). Of the past four years, three of the winners have been quite colorful and” cartoonish” (Avatar, Alice in Wonderland, Hugo). Also, Catherine Martin (The Great Gatsby) has already won two Oscars for her work on Moulin Rouge!, another Baz Luhrmann film. I think it’s pretty safe to say The Great Gatsby will win this award.

Will Win: The Great Gatsby

Mike: I think The Great Gatsby should win. With art deco inspirations, it created almost a cartoon version of the 1920’s era. I felt every detail, from hair, makeup, costume, sets, and especially color throughout the film. There must’ve been a lot of work that went into the production and to me it’s the best.

Should Win: The Great Gatsby

Best Animated Feature

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

Rob: Frozen was one of the biggest films of the year, that cannot be disputed. It’s strange not to have a Pixar film nominated, but this is Disney’s chance to pounce (when it should’ve won last year as well for Wreck-It Ralph). There’s a slight spoiler alert in The Wind Rises, supposedly Hayao Miyazaki’s last film.

Will Win: Frozen

All right, well those are my picks. There were some categories that I didn’t focus on, but my picks are:

Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty
Best Documentary: The Act of Killing
Best Documentary Short: The Lady in Number 6
Best Live Action Short: The Voorman Problem
Best Animated Short: Get a Horse!

Anyway, let’s see how the ceremony goes on March 2. Hopefully I get at least 17 predictions correct. Will it be a complete Gravity sweep, including Best Picture? Will 12 Years a Slave win the most Oscars of the night, taking Best Pic, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Supporting Actress? Will American Hustle shock everyone and win its major categories?

Only time will tell.

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2 Responses to Predictions: The 86th Academy Awards

  1. kenzpend says:

    I like these, but I have to say I’m pulling for Chiwetel Ejiofor to win lead actor. I know he won’t win, but I just thought he was absolutely amazing!

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