After discussing how American Hustle has a good chance of winning Best Picture, I figure why not explain the other front-runners as well?
Gravity, just like American Hustle, leads the pack with 10 nominations. But unlike American Hustle who is receiving all the attention for the major awards it received nominations for, Gravity is heavily nominated for the technical categories. In fact, Gravity is only the fifth film in Oscar history to receive nominations in all seven technical categories, which includes: editing, cinematography, score, production design, sound editing, sound mixing, and visual effects. The other films to achieve this feat were Titanic, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Hugo, and Life of Pi.
Without a doubt, Gravity was a visual masterpiece and whether or not Gravity wins Best Picture, it’s hard to imagine it not walking away with the most Oscars at the end of the night. But here’s another statistic to keep in mind: In Oscar history, only 31 films have won Best Picture without being nominated for Best Cinematography. That’s only 36%. Why do I mention this? Well, only Gravity and Nebraska received a nomination for Best Cinematography and Best Picture.
Want another? In Oscar history, 62 times has the Best Director winner matched the Best Picture winner. That’s 73%. Of course, this is assuming that Alfonso Cuaron is going to win Best Director. He’s certainly the front-runner, but who knows what’s going to happen this year.
But I think the most important reason why Gravity has a great shot at winning Best Picture is this: most people simply really liked Gravity. With Best Picture being decided by a preferential ballot, that means it’s just as important to receive #2 and #3 ranked votes than it is to receive #1 votes. So the front-runners are: American Hustle, Gravity, and 12 Years a Slave. All of them will rack up a bunch of #1 votes, but this is where I believe Gravity could take it. Some feel that American Hustle isn’t really that great of a movie, and we all know how challenging a film 12 Years a Slave is. That means this could bump them back to #6 or #7 rankings on a lot of voters’ ballots. So if Gravity can snatch those #2 and #3 votes, it’ll win.
Is Gravity a one-trick pony? Or will it end up sweeping the technical awards plus Best Director and Best Picture? I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if it wins 8 or 9 Oscars on March 2.
Hey, it can happen.