Oscar Talk 2012: Look out for Zero Dark Thirty

zero-dark-thirty-fyc

All of the films have finally been seen and for quite a while, after Lincoln took the commanding lead from Argo, Les Miserables came in and swept away all of the bloggers. Well, it’s time for Les Miserables to be pushed aside as well now that Zero Dark Thirty has been receiving glowing reviews. Everyone is excited to see if Kathryn Bigelow can win twice in four years. And she’s a woman!

The Golden Globes announce their nominees this week, though I doubt they really will influence the Oscars in any way. What’s intriguing about this year’s Best Picture race is how there are legitimately THREE movies that have a very good chance to win. Of course all of this will likely be a lot clearer when the guild awards are announced, but as of right now this is a three-way race between three very powerful movies: Lincoln, Les Miserables, and Zero Dark Thirty.

Last year, 2011, it was a race between The Artist and The Descendants until The Artist started to win every award on its path to the Best Picture. In 2010, it was a race between The King’s Speech (the guilds’ darling) and The Social Network (the critics’ darling). While the weeks leading up to the Oscars, it was obvious that The King’s Speech would sweep, there was still that little doubt that The Social Network could pull the upset simply because it was the CLEAR front-runner before the guild awards were announced.

The year before that, 2009, it was The Hurt Locker vs. Avatar and that concludes the years with more than five nominees. In years with only five nominees, it was even less likely to have a race come down to three movies instead of two. That is why this year is very interesting and quite thrilling for those who follow the Oscar race. And with the amount of nominees falling between five or ten, who knows how many films will be nominated! Since there were nine films last year, I’m sticking with that for this year as well and I’d rather have more films nominated this year because of its quality. If small films like Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Master, and Moonrise Kingdom can be noticed, then I have no problem with there being ten nominees this year.

But right now it’s an extremely close race between our trifecta. Both Bigelow and Hooper have recently won, so that would give Spielberg’s Lincoln the slight edge right? Looks like Daniel Day-Lewis should win Best Actor, but Jessica Chastain is set to win Best Actress. Is it possible to have no sweep at all and splits all across the board? Les Mis for picture? Ang Lee for Best Director? Anna Hathaway for Supporting Actress? Philip Seymour Hoffman for Supporting Actor?

How crazy would that be?

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