They’re called the Gurus o’ Gold and they are a group of critics who closely follow the Oscar race all year round. At Movie City News, they update their predictions and their opinions on where each Oscar contender stands. I’ve been keeping watch of the race as well, but before I start ranting about my opinion, let’s take a look at the chart.
While there are up to ten nominees for Best Picture, it’s really going to come down to two or three serious contenders that have a legitimate shot at winning. Right now the Gurus are placing Argo as their front-runner, with Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook not too far behind. This has been crystal clear of late since all three of those movies have been seen by the critics and all have been highly acclaimed. We still have to remember there are a few movies that haven’t been released yet such as Les Miserables, Django Unchained, The Hobbit, and Zero Dark Thirty, that could play a major role down the line for a Best Picture contender. They’re merely listed because of expectation.
Right now I believe that Lincoln has the best shot to win, but keep in mind that because Lincoln is behind Argo (and even behind Silver Linings Playbook to other people), it’s beneficial to its chances to win since it’s not the front-runner. It’s extremely hard to keep up all the momentum throughout half of the year until February, and being in that #2 or #3 spot right now could very well be better than #1.
It’s still very early in the race and every week there are high-quality films being released to the public. Don’t overestimate the power of the public and how they could sway the events leading up to the Oscars (though probably only slightly). But I do expect Les Miserables to be an enormous contender come the end of December. But as of now, Argo is the film to beat and to be honest, I would be very happy if it stayed that way through February.