My 2011 Oscar Nominations Predictions

It’s that time of year again. Tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. EST the nominations for the Oscars will be announced. The year of 2010 was a great one for movies. I’m sure The Academy will do a fine job awarding the films worthy of merit. After following the awards season and the best movies of the year, here are my predictions:

Best Picture:

I think it’s safe to say that these ten films will receive a nomination tomorrow. There aren’t too many films that I can foresee to squeak in. Maybe Winter’s Bone, or even a bigger stretch would be Somewhere, Another Year, or Ghost Writer… but I highly doubt it. The PGA’s ten should match the Oscar’s ten.

– 127 Hours
– Black Swan
– The Fighter
– Inception
– The Kids Are All Right
– The King’s Speech
– The Social Network
– The Town
– Toy Story 3
– True Grit

Best Director:

The nomination for this category has become incredibly more prestigious since they expanded the Best Picture category to ten movies. That being said, the five directors The Academy will reward with a nomination should be an indication of the top five films out of the ten Best Picture nominations.

– Ethan and Joel Coen (True Grit)
– David Fincher (The Social Network)
– David O. Russell (The Fighter)
– Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
– Chris Nolan (Inception)

Upset Alert! – Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan) – While Aronofsky got the DGA nod over the Coens, I feel The Academy would squeak in the beloved brothers instead of a cult-mastermind. But I could be wrong and there is a very good chance the DGA’s five will match the Academy’s five.

Best Actor:

This race seems to be pretty much locked, and there isn’t much question about Colin Firth walking away with this award come February 27.

– Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
– James Franco (127 Hours)
– Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
– Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
– Robert Duvall (Get Low)

Upset Alert! – Javier Bardem (Biutiful) – There is a chance Bardem could sneak into this category and knock out Duvall. This would be a big surprise, but one that would just be irrelevant since Firth is almost guaranteed this award.

Best Actress:

This was a phenomenal year for women in the leading position. Portman and Bening seem to be the two front-runners going into the final stretch. Lawrence is the breakthrough star of the group and Kidman gives one of her best performances in her career. There is a slight chance Hailee Steinfeld of True Grit could be thrown into this leading category instead of the supporting category she’s being marketed for. If that’s the case, that can really mix things up.

– Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
– Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
– Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
– Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right)
– Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)

Upset Alert! – Hilary Swank (Conviction)

Best Supporting Actor:

This looks like a race between Christian Bale and Geoffrey Rush. These two films with a superb ensemble cast will battle it out in the acting categories. Meanwhile, Ruffalo and Garfield should be sure to receive nods. I’m only a bit concerned with my pick for John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone, but my gut says he will be reward a nomination for his brilliant performance.

– Christian Bale (The Fighter)
– Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
– John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
– Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
– Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)

Upset Alert! – Jeremy Renner (The Town) – Just a year after he was nominated for The Hurt Locker, Renner give another outstanding performance in The Town. There is a good chance he could be in instead of Hawkes.

Best Supporting Actress:

There’s no surprise The King’s Speech and The Fighter clogs up this category. Leo and Adams seem to be locks and if Steinfeld is really going for this category she should be a lock as well. Helena Bonham Carter was excellent and chances are she will receive a nomination. As for Manville, she’s been receiving all kinds of support that makes it hard for me to believe she will be snubbed.

– Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
– Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
– Amy Adams (The Fighter)
– Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
– Lesley Manville (Another Year)

Upset Alert! – Mila Kunis (Black Swan) – If Kunis does get into this category, that will show how powerful Black Swan is in this year’s Academy Awards. I don’t think she is really deserving for a nod. I see this more as weighing Black Swan as a movie, competing against the heavy-weights.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

There are a lot of well-known writers in this category. The only upset I foresee is the writing team for Winter’s Bone to sneak in past the Oscar-winning team of Boyle and Beaufoy.

– Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
– Michael Arndt (Toy Story 3)
– True Grit (Ethan and Joel Coen)
– Robert Harris, Roman Polanski (The Ghost Writer)
– Debra Granik, Anne Roselli (Winter’s Bone)

Upset Alert! – Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy (127 Hours)

Best Original Screenplay:

I believe these five films will be up for this category. All five films are up for Best Picture and therefore have a lot of positive publicity going for them. My spoiler alert is for Mike Leigh, someone who should definitely receive more recognition than he gets, but I doubt he sneaks in.

– David Seidler (The King’s Speech)
– Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right)
– Christopher Nolan (Inception)
– Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, John. J. McLaughlin (Black Swan)
– Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy (The Fighter)

Upset Alert! – Mike Leigh (Another Year)

I know there are other categories, but these are the major ones that I am most concerned about. Let’s see how well I do tomorrow morning.

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