Box Office Predictions (May 22-25, Memorial Day Weekend)

terminator-salvation-poster night-at-the-museum-smithsonian dance-flick-poster

It’s Memorial Day Weekend, meaning we’ll be taking a look at the box office numbers for the four-day weekend.  Finally we have more than one new release this weekend.  I don’t remember a May with this many huge summer hits in recent memory.  Let’s check out what films are out this holiday weekend.

First, Terminator Salvation, the fourth installment of the sci-fi battle between man and machine.  Starring Christian Bale there is little doubt in my mind that Salvation will top the box office this weekend.  Especially since this is the first Terminator film that’s rated PG-13 instead of R.  And also, Christian Bale is one of the most successful actors in the past five years… his star power alone can drive the box office numbers way up for any movie.  The one thing that’s getting in Terminator Salvation’s way is the collection of poor reviews by critics.  To put this in perspective, Terminator Salvation has a 31% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the same exact rating that Dance Flick has.  Ouch.

Speaking of the devil, I can’t imagine who in the right mind would green-light a movie like Dance Flick.  I guess the incredibly bad franchise of Wayans Brothers spoofs simply have to run its course before we’re done with them.  Though I wouldn’t be surprised if they begin to spoof spoof-films.  Anyway, Dance Flick takes a shot at the already-poor dance films like Bring It On and Save the Last Dance.  Opening in only 2,450 theaters, expect Dance Flick to appear at the bottom of the Top 5.

Finally, the sequel to Ben Stiller’s family-friendly adventure, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian.  The original Night at the Museum surprisingly made $250 million domestically.  This PG-rated adventure with stars such as Robin Williams, Owen Wilson, Amy Adams, and Hank Azaria might be able to pull an upset this weekend.  It is being played in IMAXes across the country.  Heck, your guess is as good as mine.

Here are our predictions:

My Predictions:

1.  Terminator Salvation – $85 million
2.  Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian – $75 million
3.  Star Trek – $35 million
4.  Angels & Demons – $30 million
5.  Dance Flick – $11 million

Chris’ Predictions:

1.  Terminator Salvation – $50 million
2.  Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian – $35 million
3.  Angels & Demons – $25 million
4.  Star Trek – $23 million
5.  Dance Flick – $15 million

Phil’s Predictions:

1.  Terminator Salvation – $70 million
2.  Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian – $45 million
3.  Angels & Demons – $23 million
4.  Star Trek – $19 million
5.  Dance Flick – $11 million

Sheehan failed to submit his predictions.  The rest of the Predictions Panel believe Terminator Salvation has enough to fend off Night At the Museum 2 for the box office title.  But how much Salvation makes is up in the air.  Chris’ predictions are on the low end while my gross estimates are on the high end.  Our predictions are almost entirely identical.  The only difference is how I have Star Trek beating out Angels & Demons for the third spot.

Have a fun Memorial Day weekend and check back after the weekend for the results.

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