Box Office Predictions (May 1-3)

wolverine-poster ghosts_of_girlfriends_past

Greetings to all!  It’s May!  Which unofficially begins the summer blockbuster season.  So it’s no surprise the first big summer film is a superhero flick, Wolverine (as you recall, last year’s first May weekend release was Iron Man).  The other wide release of the weekend counters the big-budget sci-fi/action film with a chick-flick romantic comedy, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past.  Let’s get to it.

X-Men Origins: Wolverine.  So we knew Hollywood wasn’t done with this superhero, mutant story.  The first (of many?) since the trilogy stars Oscar-host Hugh Jackman playing the titled role.  Opening in about 4,100 theaters, it’s not much of a question if Wolverine will top the box office… but how much will it make?  Wolverine is the most popular character from the mutant clan, but a few weeks ago there was a major leak onto the Internet that had the movie in its entirety (w/o special effects).  A good amount of people downloaded that file and watched the movie.  Will those people still go and pay to see Wolverine on opening weekend?  Probably not, but the truth is that there’s a hell of a lot of people who haven’t seen it yet, and a large portion of those people who really want to see this movie.  X-Men opened to $55 million, X-2 opened to $86 million, and X-Men: The Last Stand opened to $103 million.  Where will Wolverine land?

Now onto Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, which made my Top 5 summer films I definitely do NOT want to see.  Starring heartthrob Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner, this film will surely attract the female demographic.  Opening in almost 3,200 theaters, it’s almost certain Ghosts of Girlfriends Past will be runner-up this weekend, but just like Wolverine it’s a question as to how much it’ll make.

And although it’s almost not worth mentioning, there is another film being released this weekend: Battle for Terra.  It’s a 3-D animated sci-fi film that I haven’t even heard of or say a trailer/commercial for.  I’ll be surprised if it cracks the Top 5.

Here are our predictions:

My Predictions:

1.  X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $80 million
2.  Ghosts of Girlfriends Past – $22 million
3.  Obsessed – $13 million
4.  17 Again – $7 million
5.  Earth – $6 million

Chris’ Predictions:

1.  X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $95 million
2.  Ghosts of Girlfriends Past – $35 million
3.  Obsessed – $15 million
4.  17 Again – $8 million
5.  The Soloist – $7 million

Phil’s Predictions:

1.  X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $60 million
2.  Ghosts of Girlfriends Past – $23 million
3.  Obsessed – $11 million
4.  Battle for Terra – $7 million
5.  17 Again – $4 million

Sheehan’s Predictions:

1.  X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $70 million
2.  Obsessed – $15 million
3.  Ghosts of Girlfriends Past – $14 million
4.  17 Again – $9 million
5.  Monsters vs. Aliens – $7 million

So the Predictions Panel expressed their unanimous decision that Wolverine will top the box office with a range from $60-$95 million and an average of $76.25 million.  I’d say that’s a pretty fine guess if you want to play things safe.  Chris was bold enough to predict Wolverine to pull in a monstrous gross of $95 million.  Let’s see who wins the Wolverine sweepstakes.  As for Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, Sheehan is the only member of the Panel who think it won’t secure the #2 spot.  Phil’s the only one who felt Battle for Terra will crack the Top 5.  And all four of us have a different selection for our #5 spots.

Let’s see who does the best.  Check back Monday for the results.

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