Box Office Predictions (April 10-12)

hannah-montana-poster1 observe-report-poster dragonball-evolution

After Fast & Furious left its competition in the dust last weekend, it has three worthy new contenders trying to take away the box office crown.  Will Fast & Furious have the endurance to last a second weekend at top?  Will there be any effect on the box office from Easter?  Let’s see what we got…

Where to start off?  Howabout this girl named Miley Cyrus.  Heard of her?  Or maybe you’ve heard of her TV-character, Hannah Montana (or Miley Stewart… okay I just freaked myself out knowing that).  Coming to a theater near you is The Hannah Montana Movie (cue the tween screams of excitement), about how the pop star sensation returning to her home roots to rediscover the real world from her celebrity life.  Let me remind you what last year’s 3D concert movie did: it grossed over $30 million in a minuscule 683 theaters (good for a $45,000 theater average!).  So with The Hannah Montana movie released in 3,118 theaters… doing the math is just scary.

But don’t worry, the circumstances are different this time around.  Disney’s not pulling a stunt saying the film will only be out for one week.  And the release of the concert movie went hand-in-hand with her tour, which plenty of kiddies couldn’t attend.  I’m wondering how many are actually excited about this movie.  There is certainly a wide fanbase for Hannah Montana, and the Disney Channel-to-big screen of High School Musical proves it can be done successfully.  This is surely a difficult prediction, but I think Miley and all her personalities will win the box office.

Next, Seth Rogen’s new comedy, Observe and Report.  Think of it as the R-rated Paul Blart: Mall Cop.  Opening in about 2,700 theaters, this is the comedy film of the weekend.  Adventureland had a weak opening last weekend, but don’t expect low numbers from this one.  It seems like Seth Rogen makes a film every other month, doesn’t it?  The world is familiar with his work and for the most part I think he’s very likable.  Therefore, Observe and Report should be fairly successful.

Finally, Dragonball: Evolution.  Say what?  The anime series gets a chance at the big screen?  Are all the fresh ideas out already this early in the year?  Well, needless to say this PG-rated fantasy/action flick has some potential.  Since I know nothing about this film, I’ll just say by no means will it have a major impact, but I foresee it squeaking into the Top 5.

Here are our predictions…

My Predictions:

1.  The Hannah Montana Movie – $37 million
2.  Fast & Furious – $29 million
3.  Monsters vs. Aliens – $18 million
4.  Observe and Report – $14 million
5.  Dragonball: Evolution – $6 million

Phil’s Predictions:

1.  The Hannah Montana Movie – $60 million
2.  Observe and Report – $25 million
3.  Monsters vs. Aliens – $16 million
4.  Fast & Furious – $12 million
5.  Knowing – $4 million

Sheehan’s Predictions:

1.  The Hannah Montana Movie – $40 million
2.  Fast & Furious – $29 million
3.  Monsters vs. Aliens – $19 million
4.  Observe and Report – $15 million
5.  The Haunting in Connecticut – $9 million

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