Box Office Predictions (March 20-22)

knowing iloveyouman duplicity

We have quite a battle this weekend at the box office.  Three new releases, three films with huge stars in them, and three films that aren’t a sequel or a remake.  This is going to be wild (as much as a box office race can be, I guess).

First off, the widest release of the three (3,332 theaters) is the Nic Cage disaster-thriller, Knowing.  The film’s premise is that a teacher opens a time capsule that has numbers and predictions, some that have already happened and others that haven’t.  Whatever, sounds good enough for a Nic Cage movie.  With this kind of suspenseful thriller and a PG-13 rating, Knowing could make a lot of money this weekend.

Next, the new Tony Gilroy crime/thriller/comedy starring big shots Clive Owen and Julia Roberts is Duplicity.  Owen starred in The International a few weeks prior (which honestly I’ve confused for Duplicity a few times), and that was a box office flop.  And Julia Roberts, though one of the biggest names in Hollywood, hasn’t really had a big film in a while.  But it’s hard to argue the star power these two bring to the table.  Opening in 2,757 theaters this weekend, Duplicity is the dark horse of the three new releases, but might be able to pull an upset.

Finally, the bromantic comedy starring Paul Rudd and Jason Segel, I Love You, Man.  Remember, this film isn’t a Judd Apatow production, though it certainly feels like it.  Even without the Apatow touch, I expect this film to be hilarious and also for it to do well in box office.  Opening in 2,711 theaters, the only thing that might hold this film back from the other two is that I Love You, Man has an R-rating.  But comedies are a crowd favorite and I expect this film to follow suit.  And come on, who doesn’t want to see Paul Rudd and Jason Segel?

Here are our predictions:

My Predictions:

1.  Knowing – $22 million
2.  I Love You, Man – $20 million
3.  Race to Witch Mountain – $15 million
4.  Duplicity – $12 million
5.  Watchmen – $10 million

Chris’ Predictions:

1.  Duplicity – $25 million
2.  I Love You, Man – $20 million
3.  Race to Witch Mountain – $18 million
4.  Watchmen – $12 million
5.  Knowing – $10 million

Phil’s Predictions:

1.  I Love You, Man – $35 million
2.  Duplicity – $25 million
3.  Knowing – $17 million
4.  Race to Witch Mountain – $10 million
5.  Watchmen – $8 million

Sheehan’s Predictions:

1.  I Love You, Man – $29 million
2.  Knowing – $20 million
3.  Race to Witch Mountain – $15 million
4.  Duplicity – $14 million
5.  Watchmen – $10 million

As mentioned above, this weekend is full of potential for all three new releases and proof is displayed here.  While Phil and Sheehan believe I Love You, Man will take the top spot with an estimated $32 million gross… Chris thinks Ducplicity can capture the #1 spot with $25 million… and I think Nic Cage’s Knowing will beat out the competition with $22 million.  I guess one of us has to be right by the end of this weekend.

Check back on Monday for the results.

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2 Responses to Box Office Predictions (March 20-22)

  1. jdiaz says:

    i love you, man deserves the number one spot. it’s ridiculously good. nice predictions.

    http://www.jdiazblog.wordpress.com

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