Oscar Nominations Tomorrow!

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS:

Best Picture:

– The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
– The Dark Knight
– Frost/Nixon
– Milk
– Slumdog Millionaire

Potential Upset:  The Reader
Who I want to receive a nom:  WALL-E

Best Director:

– Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
– David Fincher (Benjamin Button)
– Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
– Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)
– Gus Van Sant (Milk)

Potential Upset:  Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler)
Who I want to receive a nom:  Andrew Stanton (WALL-E)

Best Lead Actor:

– Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)
– Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
– Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
– Sean Penn (Milk)
– Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

Potential Upset:  Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button)
Who I want to receive a nom:  Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road)

Best Lead Actress:

– Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
– Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)
– Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
– Meryl Streep (Doubt)
– Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)

Potential Upset:  Melissa Leo (Frozen River)
Who I want to receive a nom:  Michelle Williams (Wendy & Lucy)

Best Supporting Actor:

– Josh Brolin (Milk)
– Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
– Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
– Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
– Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire)

Potential Upset:  Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)
Who I want to receive a nom:  Eddie Marsan (Happy Go Lucky)

Best Supporting Actress:

– Amy Adams (Doubt)
– Penelope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona)
– Viola Davis (Doubt)
– Taraji P. Henson (Benjamin Button)
– Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Potential Upset:  Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Who I want to receive a nom:  Freida Pinto (Slumdog Millionaire)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

– The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
– Doubt
– Frost/Nixon
– Revolutionary Road
– Slumdog Millionaire

Potential Upset:  The Reader
Who I want to receive a nom:  The Dark Knight

Best Original Screenplay:

– Happy-Go-Lucky
– Milk
– Rachel Getting Married
– Vicky Christina Barcelona
– WALL-E

Potential Upset:  The Wrestler
Who I want to receive a nom:  The Visitor

The time has come.  The Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning.  After spending the last few months speculating and analyzing awards, top ten lists, etc. the nominees will finally be revealed.  It has been an interesting year for film in 2008, and the awards season has been fun to watch as well.

It seems as though the Best Picture nominations are locked in for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, and Slumdog Millionaire.  There is still an outside shot for The Reader that scored a Golden Globe and BAFTA nomination.  Like last year’s Atonement, if the Brits can swing for The Reader, it might be able to pull an upset.  Another unlikely movie that can snag a nomination is WALL-E.  It’s the best reviewed film of the year and there is a really passionate following for the Pixar masterpiece.  With the process the Academy takes to come up with the nominations, WALL-E might actually benefit from the procedure since the people who support it will most likely put it as their #1 spot.  Who knows.  Anything can happen, right?

If there were to be an upset, my opinion is that Frost/Nixon would be the film to be bumped out.  Of course, experts have stressed their concern for Milk as well, since they’re both political movies and might split the Academy’s votes.  Heck, maybe the votes are split evenly and they both miss the boat.  But when I look back at Frost/Nixon, I see an excellent performance by Frank Langella, great directing by Ron Howard, and a great script penned by Peter Morgan.  All of these things sure add up to a Best Picture nomination, but if we were choosing which film is more of a lock, then I must go with Milk.  Milk has a better lead performance in Sean Penn, better directing and writing by Gus Van Sant, and a better ensemble cast with Josh Brolin, Emile Hirsch, and James Franco.

But it’s odd for me saying that if any film was to get snubbed it would be Frost/Nixon, because I think that The Dark Knight is the weakest of the category.  Then again, it should most definitely get a nomination.  The year 2008 will be remembered as the year of The Dark Knight… and on top of that the film was extremely good.  It’s just that it’s a superhero movie and it definitely doesn’t “feel” like an Oscar contender.  But hey, if The Dark Knight were to miss the cut and WALL-E would get in… I’m all for that!

While the Best Picture category seems to be a lock, the rest of the categories are not nearly as clear.  For Leading Best Actor, we know Mickey Rourke, Sean Penn, and Frank Langella are in… but who gets the last two spots?  I’m pretty sure Clint Eastwood will get a nomination just because he’s freakin’ Clint Eastwood… also because he gives a wonderful performance in Gran Torino.  So then the last spot is left open to Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Richard Jenkins, or Benicio Del Toro.  I think the safe bet is to go with Brad Pitt, but my gut is telling me that the Academy will vote for Richard Jenkins who was magnificent in the very small film, The Visitor.

For Best Supporting Actor, the only nomination that’s up in the air is Dev Patel for Slumdog Millionaire.  There’s a good chance Michael Shannon replaces him from Revoluntionary Road… but Slumdog’s been running away with things lately and I just couldn’t bet against it.

For Best Leading Actress there are some openings.  Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet, and Anne Hathaway seem to be locks… leaving two remaining spaces.  Contenders are Sally Hawkins, Kristin Scott Thomas, Melissa Leo, Angelina Jolie, Cate Blanchett, and Michelle Williams.  Those are some brilliant performances and only two are going to get in.  It’s a shame.  Wendy & Lucy and Frozen River are too small to get acknowledged, so I don’t think Michelle Williams or Melissa Leo will get in.  I can’t imagine Sally Hawkins not getting a nomination… and then for the final spot I have to pen in Angelina Jolie.

For Best Supporting Actress, this is usually an interesting category and this year is no different.  The only certain nominations seem to be Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona and Kate Winslet in The Reader.  Viola Davis and Amy Adams are both very strong contenders, but will being in the same movie hurt their chances?  And then there’s Taraji P. Henson, Marisa Tomei, and Freida Pinto.  I wasn’t too excited about Tomei’s performance in The Wrestler, and although Pinto’s in the rolling Slumdog Millionaire, I don’t think she’ll get a nod.  So that leaves me with the caring mother performance in Benjamin Button.

Finally… for Best Director, we have a number of great people this year.  But the thing to look out for is the ONE director who is able to sneak into the Best Director category without his movie nominated for a Best Picture.  This has happened time and time again, so what’s going to happen this year?  I think the surprise will be that there is no surprise.  I think that this year the directors and Best Picture nominations will balance out with every Best Picture nod, the director will also get a nod… but if there is one director I can see continuing the trend, I’d have to go with Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler). 

So there you have it.  Check back tomorrow morning when the Oscar nominations and my reactions are posted.

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3 Responses to Oscar Nominations Tomorrow!

  1. […] Wu on January 12th, 2009 I am watching the Golden Globe and really happy that Heath Ledger won Best Supporting Actor. It would be a travesty if he didn’t […]

  2. Much love – much love for this. I am going to buy my friend the Nixon Fluro! I hope he enjoys it.

  3. I have tried to write a comment here but each time I try it refreshes the screen or provides an error. Do you think the writer could possibly look into the reason it keeps messing up?

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