Box Office Predictions (Jan. 16-19)

This holiday weekend we have a free-for-all for the box office title.  The two big new releases are the family film Hotel for Dogs and the goofy-comedy Paul Blart: Mall Cop.  And then there’s the 3-D horror experience, My Bloody Valentine… the biopic, Notorious… the Holocaust film, Defiance… and the romantic comedy, Last Chance Harvey.

First off, the 3-D technology has spilled over to the horror genre in My Bloody Valentine.  I hate horror films, but The Unborn did surprisingly well last weekend and I assume My Bloody Valentine will continue the success for horrors.  The only thing that intrigues me is the 3-D aspect… come on, doesn’t everyone wish they had a chainsaw flying at their face?  Even though this film’s only opening in about 2,500 theaters, the tickets will be more expensive and I think that’ll be the clincher to top the box office.

Next, the Kevin James comedy, Paul Blart: Mall Cop.  This PG-rated film opening in over 3,000 theaters has a chance to do some damage this weekend.  The question is:  will the movie be too dumb for most people… or just dumb enough to enjoy?

What was my formula a few weeks ago?  Something about dog movies being a guarantee success?  Well, I’m not too sure about this family-pet film, Hotel for Dogs.  It’s going to need a real boost to beat out the 3-D film.  The PG rating and the widest opening (3,271 theaters) helps… and hey, if a movie about singing and dancing chihuahuas can steal the show, Hotel for Dogs should have a shot, too.

To round out the rest of the releases, Notorious is the biopic of the hip-hop star Notorious B.I.G., Defiance is the Daniel Craig war/drama directed by Ed Zwick (Blood Diamond), and Last Chance Harvey is the sweet romantic comedy starring Dustin Hoffman and Emma Thompson.

Here are our predictions.

NOTE:  We have a new member of our box office predictions team, Chris.

My Predictions:

1.  My Bloody Valentine: 3-D – $24 million
2.  Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $21 million
3.  Gran Torino – $20 million
4.  Notorious – $17 million
5.  Hotel for Dogs – $15 million

Phil’s Predictions:

1.  Hotel for Dogs – $30 million
2.  Notorious – $23 million
3.  Gran Torino – $15 million
4.  Paul Blart:  Mall Cop – $12 million
5.  Bride Wars – $8 million

Chris’s Predictions:

1.  Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $30 million
2.  Gran Torino – $27 million
3.  My Bloody Valentine: 3-D – $20 million
4.  Hotel for Dogs – $18 million
5.  Bride Wars – $15 million

All three of us picked a different movie for the #1 spot.  And all three have a solid chance as taking the top spot since this weekend’s box office seems so unpredictable.  My predictions left out the chick-comedy, Bride Wars, for all the new releases this weekend.  Chris left out Notorious on this MLK weekend while Phil failed to include my #1 pick, My Bloody Valentine.

Check back Monday for the results.

One Response to Box Office Predictions (Jan. 16-19)

  1. dilan says:

    It is more fascinating pet movie again, have you seen this movie called Hotel for Dogs it was a pleasure watching movie with some good young talented teens, oh boy I must say some talented dogs too. The boy who is playing the part of a brother does did a grate job in the movie he’s knowledge is used in practical so any young teen might love to be as him. I do saw the movie on dream works pictures are quite brilliant.

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