Oscar Talk 2012: The DGA Awards are important (in case you didn’t know)

We all want to be able to correctly predict what film is going to win Best Picture. It’s something you can wildly debate about with your friends for countless hours, and then have the bragging rights if you select the winner. There are even Vegas odds and bets placed on the prestigious night. But while I’ve been in the game of Oscar watching for almost a decade now, there is still only one thing that I know: your guess is as good as mine.

I guess it’s kind of funny for me to admit that, but year after year that is what I keep saying. I’ll give my predictions and my reasons for believing in certain movies and certain upsets, but the truth is that your guess is as good as mine and as good as anyone else’s. If I somehow correctly predict 23 out of the 24 awards given out, I’ll be the first one to tell you that it was luck. Why do I keep doing it? Because it’s so much freakin’ fun.

So back to the game, this past weekend revealed that Argo seems to be back as the front-runner for Best Picture. Winning the PGA and the SAG awards is a pretty big deal. Am I ready to call it for Argo yet? No. It still has the HUGE obstacle of winning without a Best Director nod for Affleck, but if it wins this Saturday at the DGA awards and then gets the WGA, well it’ll practically be a lock then for Argo.

But just because it won the PGA and SAG doesn’t mean it’s a lock quite yet. In 1995, there was a crowd-pleasing film about an American event that went down this same path. Apollo 13 won the PGA, SAG, and even the DGA for Ron Howard (and also Howard didn’t get a Best Director nomination). It was expected for Apollo 13 to take the Oscars, but Braveheart swooped in with the upsets winning Best Picture (and Best Director for Mel Gibson, even though Howard wasn’t nominated).

Needless to say, this is a very strange road to the Oscars that we’ve been on thus far. You know what would really throw a wrench in the whole thing? If Ben Affleck or Steven Spielberg DOESN’T win the DGA. Imagine that? Because whoever wins the DGA out of those two will easily become the front-runner going into the Oscars. But let’s say… Ang Lee wins the DGA (which he’s won twice already). That would really throw a curve-ball at everyone, but at the same time it would hurt Spielberg and Lincoln more than anything else.

    

Okay… so where do we stand? Silver Linings Playbook has NO chance at Best Picture since it lost the SAG where it was expected to win. And unless Ang Lee can win the DGA, you can count Life of Pi completely out as well. As for Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild, well they’re just happy to be there. So it’s Lincoln vs. Argo down the stretch of the last month before the Oscars air.

Here’s a little bit of history, something like what we’ll be referring back to in the future if Argo wins Best Picture. Driving Miss Daisy is the only film to win Best Picture without a directing nod in 80 years and many people are comparing it to Argo. Born on the Fourth of July was a film that looked like was on its way to a Best Picture win. Here are the accolades for both films leading up to the Oscars:

Driving Miss Daisy
- won PGA
- won Golden Globes Comedy/Musical
- won WGA

Born on the Fourth of July
- won DGA
- won Best Director
- won Golden Globes Director and Drama

Though tradition was on Born of the Fourth of July’s side, Driving Miss Daisy made history with its Best Picture victory. Only once in the last 10 years has the Best Picture winner not matched the Best Director (Crash beating out Brokeback Mountain). So like I said earlier, there is a very good chance that history will be made… that is unless Spielberg wins the DGA and Lincoln sweeps at the Oscars. If that’s the case, we can all just have a good laugh.

Oscar Talk 2012: So Where Are We?

Remember at the Golden Globes when Ben Affleck and Argo won? Well, that has people throwing their hands up in the air with all sorts of celebratory reactions as their favorite movie of the year is finally gaining the respect they feel it deserves. But what does all of this mean with the Oscars only a month away? Does it mean anything at all?

In past years, it might not have. Here are the movies that won both Best Picture Drama and Comedy/Musuical the past 8 years at the Golden Globes:

2012 – Argo and Les Miserables
2011 – The Descendants and The Artist
2010 – The Social Network and The Kids are All Right
2009 – Avatar and The Hangover
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire and Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2007 – Atonement and Sweeney Todd
2006 – Babel and Dreamgirls
2005 – Brokeback Mountain and Walk the Line
2004 – The Aviator and Sideways

From the past 16 movies that won in the last 8 years, only 2 movies have won the Best Picture Oscar. That’s right, only TWO (The Artist and Slumdog Millionaire). So why is everyone jumping on the Argo bandwagon again? I honestly have no idea.

But this weekend the PGA and SAG will announce their winners. After this weekend, we will be able to have a much clearer projection of what will happen at the Oscars. If Argo wins both PGA and SAG, then I’ll admit that Lincoln might be in trouble. If Silver Linings Playbook (in my opinion, the biggest threat to Lincoln) doesn’t win the SAG, then it’s almost as good as dead.

Back to Argo. Here’s a fun fact for all of those Argo supporters. No director has ever won the DGA, not gotten nominated for an Oscar, and then had their film win BP. Ever. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it would be an insane feat for Affleck to win the DGA and then see Argo win Best Picture. I’m a big fan of “history repeats itself” and will stick with that mindset over anything else.

If Lincoln gets shut out this weekend and both Argo and Silver Linings Playbook wins, then I’m really going to throw a fit. This could be the most unpredictable Oscars in a very long time, and while that’s frustrating for people like me, honestly it’s the best thing that could happen to the Oscars. I’d much rather be dead wrong and see Lincoln win only one Oscar while Argo wins Best Picture and Ang Lee wins Best Director than see Lincoln sweep the major awards.

But I’ll still speak what I believe in, and that is Lincoln is the clear front-runner with every other film miles behind. Here are the reasons why:

- Lincoln has the most nominations (12)
- Lincoln has grossed the most money of all nominations
- Has 3 acting nominations and one clear favorite (Daniel Day-Lewis)
- It has ALL of the important nominations
- Steven Spielberg

While Lincoln isn’t many people’s (including mine) favorite film, you cannot ignore how well-made it is. Excellence is displayed on every level of that film, and shouldn’t films like that be rewarded?

Live Blogging: The 70th Annual Golden Globes

So it’s Sunday night and the Patriots seem to have the Texans down for the count, so all that’s left to do for the weekend is watch the Golden Globes! Of course, I have Girls, Shameless and Happy Endings on my DVR for later tonight, but here we go! This is everyone’s favorite celebrity party, mixing the television stars with the movie stars with dinner and alcohol flowing all night long. Let’s get started!

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8:00 – Tina Fey and Amy Poehler are the co-hosts and give a silly opening performance. “The beautiful people of film get to rub shoulders with the rat-faced people of television.” There was also a joke for Kathryn Bigelow that targeted James Cameron and torture that received the most uncomfortable laughs and hands covering faces. Overall, a good start to the telecast.

8:09 – Christoph Waltz wins the first Globe award for Best Supporting Actor in Django Unchained. Will this be a sign for things to come? Robert De Niro wasn’t nominated, but the HFPA awarded Waltz over Tommy Lee Jones.

8:12 – Maggie Smith wins Best Supporting Actress for a Series, Mini-Series, or Film Made for Television in Downtown Abbey. Can Downtown Abbey win Best Television Drama? I wouldn’t be too surprised.

8:17 – Best Mini-Series or TV Movie goes to Game Change. HBO is still king of the TV Movie.

8:21 – Julianne Moore wins Best Actress in a Mini-Series or TV Movie. I still prefer Tina Fey’s Sarah Palin though… and I prefer Moore as an adulterer.

8:29 – The president of the HFPA asks the cameras to pan the crowd of tv and movie stars, but that never happens.

8:33 – Damian Lewis wins for Best Actor in a TV Drama, in a very talented and packed category. I wonder if Homeland is going to sweep its way through the Globes like it did at the Emmys.

8:35 – Paul Rudd and Salma Hayek have nothing to read on the teleprompter and couldn’t even ab-lib. Anyway, the award was for Best TV Series and Homeland wins. Will Claire Danes finish the trifecta? For the record, while I loved the second season of Homeland, it wasn’t as good as the first and was it really better than Downtown Abbey, Breaking Bad and Boardwalk Empire?

8:43 – Tony Mendez and John Goodman announces Argo, one of the year’s best films and up for Best Drama Film.

8:45 – Mychael Danna wins for his tremendous score in the film Life of Pi. Also, Jason Statham is so strong he practically rips the golden envelope in half!

8:48 – And Adele continues her insane popularity with a win for Best Song for “Skyfall.” Is it me or is almost every winner so far British?

8:55 – Best Actor in a Mini-Series or TV Movie goes to Kevin Costner in “Hatfields & McCoys.” Speaking of Kevin Costner, what has he been up to? Last thing I remember him from was Mr. Brooks, but that was in 2007.

8:59 – Bill Clinton gets a standing ovation and announces Lincoln.

9:03 – The only thing funnier than Will Ferrell and Kristen Wiig’s announcement of the Best Actress – Musical or Comedy nominations was the close-up of Tommy Lee Jones totally miserable. And Jennifer Lawrence ends up with the Golden Globe award! She really is the hottest actress in Hollywood at the moment and there’s a very good chance she can ride this wave of success all the way to the Oscars.

9:12 – Is it really fair to group the supporting actors in television in one category? Did Max Greenfield really stand a chance against Ed Harris?

9:15 – Anne Hathaway wins for Best Supporting Actress, basically for singing “I Dreamed a Dream” in Les Miserables. This is her first Golden Globe win in three nominations. She is certainly the favorite going into the Oscars for Best Supporting Actress, which would be her first win in her career.

Sometimes you can tell when an acceptance speech is going to be awesome or not. For instance, Hathaway’s speech made me cringe and she went on far too long, but I swear if Amy Poehler wins for Best Actress they better not cut her off no matter what!

9:24 – Why would they combine Original and Adapted Screenplays? And I’m utterly surprised that Quentin Tarantino beat out the likes of Tony Kushner and Chris Terrio. Like he just said, “Wow, I wasn’t expecting this!” No one was.

This does raise some questions now at the Oscars. Does this put Tarantino as favorite to beat out Haneke and Boal for Original Screenplay? It just might.

9:27 – Don Cheadle wins for Best Actor in a Comedy for Television. So are you guys keeping count? Because it seems like Showtime is kicking some ass right now. Even though I haven’t watched House of Lies, it’s got to be good to beat out Jim Parsons and Louis C.K.

9:34 – Amour wins for Best Foreign Film and no one is surprised. Note: Michael Haneke is awesome.

9:37 – Claire Danes wins for Best Drama Actress in TV. Homeland wins the trifecta! But the real thing to note on is what the crap is up with Lea Michele’s tan?

9:46 – Sacha Baron Cohen yelled about his co-stars in Les Miserables and then announces Brave to win Best Animated Picture.

9:49 – Just watched the 30-second clip of Life of Pi and it reminded me of how brilliant that movie was. It’s unlikely, but Ang Lee would win my vote for the year’s best director.

9:50 – Aziz Ansari is acting high from “biscuits” that the cast of Downtown Abbey gave him. Anyway, Lena Dunham wins for Best TV Actress in Girls. Speaking of, the second season premiered tonight and I still have yet to realize all the hooplah about the show.

Note: Whenever a first time winner pulls out a piece of paper, you should just cue the music immediately.

Commercial: Kerri Russell is looking mighty fine in her new show, The Americans.

10:03 – Cecil B. DeMille Award for Jodie Foster, the two-time Oscar winner. What a beautiful speech.

10:16 – Ben Affleck wins Best Director! A nice consolation for being snubbed at the Oscars, something that no one could have predicted for his incredible film, Argo. When it comes down to it, Ben Affleck belongs with the group of the year’s best directors and has really showcased his talent behind the camera in the recent years of his career. He has become one of our generation’s best mainstream directors and there’s no doubt he’ll receive his due from the Academy in the near future.

10:22 – Girls wins for Best TV Comedy/Musical. Robyn’s music plays while the cast of Girls walks through the entire hall to receive their award. This is the first cable-show to win Best TV Comedy in five years. Will the Emmys follow suit or will the Emmys continue to award Modern Family?

10:30 – Hugh Jackman wins for Best Actor – Comedy/Musical. Les Miserables has won two acting awards, but again the Globes separate the Comedy/Musical from the real movies. Still, Hugh Jackman gave a great performance in Les Miserables and there is no other actor that could’ve played Jean Valjean like he did.

Don’t you think that the Golden Globes should be aired on cable so they can allow the actors to curse as they please? I think there’s a big audience for that.

10:40 – Les Miserables wins for Best Comedy/Musical. I still feel Silver Linings Playbook is one of the biggest competitions for Lincoln, and in a way it’s good that it didn’t win the Golden Globes because in the past eight years, there have only been two Best Picture winners at the Oscars that won the Golden Globes Best Picture (Drama or Comedy/Musical).

10:47 – Jessica Chastain wins for Best Actress and now the Chastain vs. Lawrence discussion will really heat up. Note: Chastain gives the best acceptance speech of the night (not counting Foster).

10:50 – SURPRISE! Daniel Day-Lewis wins for Best Actor… okay obviously it wasn’t a surprise and it won’t be when he wins his third Oscar in February.

10:57 – Argo wins Golden Globes as expected. So that means this awards season is shaping up like in 2011 when The Social Network won the Globes’ Directing and Picture while The King’s Speech only won for Best Drama Actor (Colin Firth). And we all know that The King’s Speech wound up winning four of the major Oscar awards including Best Picture and Best Director.

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The Golden Globes was a fun ceremony. The big winners were Girls, Homeland, Argo and Les Miserables. Now it’s time for me to watch the Girls premiere since the HFPA thinks its the best comedy on the air.

2013 Golden Globes Nominations

Here are the nominees:

UPDATE: Check out all the winners and thoughts about the telecast here.

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Best Motion Picture – Drama

Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

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Best Leading Actor – Drama

Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)

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Best Leading Actress – Drama

Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)

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Best Motion Picture – Comedy, Musical

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Silver Linings Playbook

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Best Lead Actor – Comedy, Musical

Jack Black (Bernie)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Ewan McGregor (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)

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Best Lead Actress – Comedy, Musical

Emily Blunt (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen)
Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)

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Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin (Argo)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

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Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams (The Master)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

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Best Director

Ben Affleck (Argo)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

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Best Screenplay

Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)
Tony Kushner (Lincoln)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Chris Terrio (Argo)

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So the SAG Awards nominations came in yesterday and now the Golden Globes nominations are in. Let me just begin with the obvious for anyone who’s been following the awards race: Django Unchained got a MAJOR boost from the Golden Globes. It was practically off the list of contenders until today. Django Unchained tied Argo with a total of 5 nominations including Best Picture – Drama and a Best Director nod for Quentin Tarantino. Why is this substantial? Well, with Tarantino and also Ang Lee in the jam-packed Best Director race now, this bumps down David O. Russell and Tom Hooper who weren’t nominated. How will this potentially affect the Best Picture race? According to In Contention, only four films in history have won Best Picture at the Oscars without a Golden Globe nomination for Best Director. Those films include Crash, Driving Miss Daisy, The Sting and Chariots of Fire.

In the past, I would be quick to say that the Golden Globes don’t matter and doesn’t weigh in on how the Oscars play out. This year… well it’s a little different. The ballots for the Oscar nominations go out in FOUR days. That’s before the other major guilds release their nominations. So for people who usually depend on the DGA and the PGA for which movies to vote for, it ain’t happening this year. All those people will have are a handful of critics awards, the SAG Awards nominations and the Golden Globes. It’s actually kind of scary to think about the possibilities of Academy members being influence by the Golden Globes.

But as the race is still shaping up, there has been a trend that is indicating what I posted in early November: Lincoln is destined to win Best Picture. With no directing nod for Tom Hooper at the Globes, and no Best Ensemble nod for Zero Dark Thirty, these things bring down the two top contenders a notch. Meanwhile, Lincoln is still standing tall, with a nice box office gross, great reviews, and support from the SAGs and HFPA. Sure, the race is still very early but as of right now, all signs are pointing to a Lincoln victory come February 24th.

69th Annual Golden Globes

Last night was the infamous Golden Globes telecast, the first awards show during awards season and the one that has the least amount of impact for the one and only, Academy Awards. But nonetheless, NBC airs the unpredictable awards show and has asked Ricky Gervais to host once again. While this made the public salivate at what kind of shenanigans he could get into this year, he was much more subdued as host this time around.

I’ll run down the television winners first, since they will always be runner-up in importance to cinema.

Television

The Best Series – Drama was sort of a pleasant surprise, as the debut season of Showtime’s Homeland won the Golden Globe over other shows like Boardwalk Empire and Game of Thrones. While Boardwalk Empire is great, I still think it’s slightly overrated. In my opinion, Game of Thrones was the best show of the five nominated, but I’m glad that Homeland won.

Best Series – Comedy or Musical went to ABC’s Modern Family for the second straight year. The family-comedy didn’t have any real competition aside from HBO’s Enlightened. Glee has definitely tailed off to the point where I’m surprised it was even nominated. New Girl is one of the most watched comedies, but still overall is just a “cute” show.

Best Actor in a TV Drama went to Kesley Grammar for Boss. This was probably the biggest surprise of the evening, as he beat out last year’s winner Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire), the popular and amazing Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad), and the acclaimed Damian Lewis (Homeland).

Best Actress in a TV Drama went to Claire Danes (Homeland) and it was the right choice. I sort of thought Julianna Margulies would take the award, but looking at the past decade of winners in this category, none has won the award twice so that ruled her out (she won the Golden Globe two years ago for The Good Wife).

The Best Actor in a Musical Comedy TV Series went to Matt LeBlanc (Episodes). So Joey finally got an award? People actually watched Episodes? Everything was confusing for me, but what confused me the most was how Johnny Galecki (The Big Bang Theory) was nominated instead of his co-star Jim Parsons.

The Best Actress in a TV Musical or Comedy went to Lauren Dern (Enlightment). Beating out the very competitive group that consisted of Tina Fey (30 Rock), Laura Linney (The Big C), Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation), and Zooey Deschanel (New Girl) was impressive. But hey, this was The Golden Globes, not the Emmy’s. No one has had a run in this category since Sarah Jessica Parker won three in four years for Sex in the City.

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Movies

Moving on to the movie portion of The Golden Globes, there was some competition but not much since the awards are divided into Drama and Musical/Comedy categories.

The Best Drama went to the very-deserving The Descendants, which I still have in the number 2 rank for Best Picture. Hugo was really the only competition for The Descendants, but those who are keeping score know this is a bad omen for the film. In the past 8 years, The Golden Globes Best Drama has only matched up with The Academy Award’s Best Picture ONCE (Slumdog Millionaire). Although I would love to see The Descendants win Best Picture, they have a long way to go.

The Best Musical/Comedy went to The Artist, and to be quite honest I was surprised about the selection. I know The Artist is insanely acclaimed and it’s definitely the front-runner for Best Picture, but these are the Globes for crying out loud. This category has been won by films such as The Hangover, Vicky Christina Barcelona, and Sweeney Todd. I wasn’t alone when I thought Bridesmaids had this award locked.

The only category that really mattered in the movie portion was Best Director, which went to Martin Scorsese (Hugo). I really shouldn’t have been surprised about this, because after this year’s win, Scorsese has won the Golden Globe’s Best Director three times in the past decade (but has only won Best Director once in his entire career at The Academy Awards). What can I say? The HFPA loves them some Scorsese.

For acting, George Clooney (The Descendants) and Jean Dujardin (The Artist) won for their categories, which does nothing for us bloggers to speculate who has the lead in the Best Actor race. Also, Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) and Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) won the Best Actresses awards.

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Overall, this was just another typical Golden Globes ceremony. It’s good in the way that it gets the public interested in awards shows and the prestige of excellent film and television. But really, the Golden Globes and the HFPA cannot compare to the merit The Academy Awards has, and it never will. It’s only the lead-in entertainment to the big show. If the Globes wanted to be taken more seriously, eliminate the separate Drama and Musical/Comedy categories and combine them into one. But for now, we all know it’s just a ploy to have the most celebrities packed into one room as possible.

The Golden Globes Nominations

Below are the movie categories for the Golden Globes and what it means to the race leading up to The Academy Awards. Even though I don’t like to acknowledge the Golden Globes too much, it does make a slight impact on which movies and actors are on the right path for an Oscar nomination.

 

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
“War Horse”
“The Ides of March”
“The Help”
“Moneyball”
“Hugo”
“The Descendants”

Starting with the big award of the night, all of these films except for The Ides of March are expected to receive Best Picture nods. The nod to The Ides of March helps as it was also one of the top ten movies selected by the National Board of Review. But it’s still a long-shot to be nominated for Best Picture.

 

BEST PICTURE, COMEDY
“The Artist”
“50/50″
“Bridesmaids”
“My Week With Marilyn”
“Midnight in Paris”

I don’t think I’ll ever understand why this is a category, aside from allowing films like The Hangover to have its glory. Also, because The Artist is in this category it takes away from any drama that will be The Artist vs. The Descendants, as this is what the race is shaping up to be. We must remember that these are the Golden Globes and anything can happen. What I’m saying is I wouldn’t be surprised if Bridesmaids takes this category over The Artist and even Midnight in Paris. Hey, it can happen.

 

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
George Clooney, “The Descendants”
Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “J.Edgar”
Ryan Gosling, “The Ides of March”
Michael Fassbender, “Shame”

The Globes really liked The Ides of March, as they rewarded Ryan Gosling with a Best Leading Actor nod. Clooney, Pitt, and DiCaprio are practically locks for Best Actor nominations for the Oscars, so expect one of them to walk away with this award. Fassbender is still in the running to receive an Oscar nomination, but still behind the race.

 

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
Viola Davis, “The Help”
Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
Tilda Swinton, “We Need to Talk About Kevin”
Rooney Mara, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”

There’s no surprise that Davis and Streep were among the nominees here. Swinton has definitely been receiving praise for her performance in We Need to Talk About Kevin and Mara is picking up some momentum with this nod even though the film has been shut out by most critics circles.

 

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY
Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
Brendan Gleeson, “The Guard”
Owen Wilson, “Midnight in Paris”
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, “50/50″
Ryan Gosling, “Crazy, Stupid, Love”

The Comedy movie categories are so underwhelming that it’s insulting that The Artist has been places in here. But this is how the Globes are able to invite dozens of stars to litter their ceremony for their ratings-hungry show.

 

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY
Michelle Williams, “My Week With Marilyn”
Jodie Foster, “Carnage”
Kristen Wiig, “Bridesmaids”
Charlize Theron, “Young Adult”
Kate Winslet, “Carnage”

The most interesting aspect about this year’s comedy category of movies is Bridesmaids. Clearly one of the best comedies of the year, does it have what it takes to seriously be considered an Oscar contender? With actresses that are breaking out into stardom like Kristen Wiig and Melissa McCarthy, can they receive acting nominations?

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Albert Brooks, “Drive”
Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
Kenneth Branagh, “My Week With Marilyn”
Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
Viggo Mortensen, “A Dangerous Method”

This is where the Globes make a mark on the Oscar race. With ten nominees for Lead Actor and Actress, there are only five supporting actors and actresses nominated. Here, it seems that Brooks has regained some steam after being snubbed by the SAG. But the race looks to be favoring Plummer in a big way, with Branagh not too far behind.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”
Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
Jessica Chastain, “The Help”
Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”
Shailene Woodley, “The Descendants”

The Help is a big contender with Spencer and Chastain leading the way in this category. Bejo and Woodley also remain very strong in this race and you can’t forget about Melissa McCarthy, who was snubbed by the Globes.

 

BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
George Clooney, “The Ides of March”
Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”

Once again, the Globes really went for The Ides of March. Giving Clooney a Best Directing nod was a surprise as it is unlikely he’ll get that kind of response from The Academy. I’m also very surprised that Spielberg wasn’t nominated for War Horse here. Does it really hurt his chances? Not really. The DGA is the best sign to where everyone stands in the race, not the Globes.

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What does all of this mean? Not much. Remember, the Golden Globes are not voted in by The Academy. It’s a group of approximately 100 members that make up the Hollywood Foreign Press Association that vote the winners. When you compare the prestige of The Golden Globes to The Academy Awards, it’s a landslide. But I will admit that the Globes do make up for some enjoyable programming.

Golden Globes 2010 Predictions

Tonight, the Golden Globes ceremony will take place on NBC.  The hilarious Ricky Gervais will host what will be a very entertaining night full of celebrities and awards that don’t really matter for anything.  Anyway, time for me to warm up my predicting chops.  Here are my predictions:

Best Picture – Drama

• Avatar
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Precious
• Up in the Air

Prediction:  Avatar is simply too big of a movie for the Golden Globes to ignore.  Already surpassing the $1 billion mark worldwide and possibly becoming the all-time highest grossing film, expect the GG to award Avatar the last trophy of the night.

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Best Picture – Musical or Comedy

• (500) Days of Summer
• The Hangover
• It’s Complicated
• Julie & Julia
• Nine

Prediction:  Let’s imagine that the GG gives their awards to the best of the category.  In that case, (500) Days of Summer would win this hands down.  But that’s not the way the Golden Globes work.  I expect Nine, the only musical of the category, which happens to boast an insanely big cast, to win this award.

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Best Lead Actor – Drama

• Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
• George Clooney (Up in the Air)
• Colin Firth (A Single Man)
• Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
• Tobey Maguire (Brothers)

Prediction:  The GG gave Up in the Air the most nominations, so there’s no lack of love for this light, but intelligent dramedy.  I expect the extremely charismatic and likable George Clooney to walk away with this award.

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Best Lead Actress – Drama

• Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria)
• Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
• Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
• Carey Mulligan (An Education)
• Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)

Prediction:  I want to say that the glamorous Golden Globes are going to give Sandra Bullock this award to coincide with her very successful year, but I believe that the HFPA are going to give Carey Mulligan this honor for her excellent performance in An Education.

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Best Lead Actor – Musical or Comedy

• Matt Damon (The Informant!)
• Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine)
• Robert Downey Jr. (Sherlock Holmes)
• Joseph Gordon-Levitt (500 Days of Summer)
• Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)

Prediction:  This isn’t as an impressive group than the Drama category.  Nonetheless, expect Daniel Day-Lewis to walk away with this award just because he’s the man.

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Best Lead Actress – Musical or Comedy

• Sandra Bullock (The Proposal)
• Marion Cotillard (Nine)
• Julia Roberts (Duplicity)
• Meryl Streep (It’s Complicated)
• Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

Prediction:  Can I just say that Meryl Streep is going to win?  If I had to choose, I’d say she wins for Julie & Julia.

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Best Supporting Actor

• Matt Damon (Invictus)
• Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
• Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
• Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
• Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Prediction:  Here’s a very competitive group of supporting actors.  Christoph Waltz should dance away with this award for his unbelievable performance in Inglourious Basterds.

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Best Supporting Actress

• Penelope Cruz (Nine)
• Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
• Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
• Mo’Nique (Precious)
• Julianne Moore (A Single  Man)

Prediction:  Mo’Nique should and will win.

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Best Director

• Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
• James Cameron (Avatar)
• Clint Eastwood (Invictus)
• Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
• Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

Prediction:  Again, I believe that James Cameron‘s Avatar is simply too big and successful for the Golden Globes to ignore.  He’ll win this award, but when it’s time for the Oscars, this is going to be a different story.

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Best Screenplay

• District 9
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• It’s Complicated
• Up in the Air

Prediction:  This is a toss-up between Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds.  They both need to win this to build momentum towards The Academy Awards.  I have a feeling that Inglourious Basterds will win this award… I’m just not exactly sure why.

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Best Animated Film

• Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
• Coraline
• Fantastic Mr. Fox
• The Princess and the Frog
• Up

Prediction:  There’s no doubt that Up has made its impact on the awards season.  But I have a very strange feeling that the Golden Globes will shake the race up slightly by giving the Best Animated Film award to Fantastic Mr. Fox.

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Golden Globes Nominations 2010

Ah yes, the beginning of awards season includes the number of critics awards and the sometimes controversial, yet mostly entertaining Golden Globes.  This is not The Academy Awards folks.  This is merely a party that combines movie stars with television stars with dinner and alcohol.  They like to remind you that “anything can happen” during the Golden Globes.

But first, let’s take a look at the nominations:

MOTION PICTURES

Best Picture, Drama:
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“Up in the Air”

Best Picture, Musical or Comedy:
“(500) Days of Summer”
“The Hangover”
“It’s Complicated”
“Julie & Julia”
“Nine”

Best Lead Actor, Drama:
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Tobey Maguire, “Brothers”

Best Lead Actress, Drama:
Emily Blunt, “The Young Victoria”
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Clint Eastwood, “Invictus”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Lead Actor, Musical or Comedy:
Matt Damon, “The Informant!”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Nine”
Robert Downey Jr., “Sherlock Holmes”
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, “(500) Days of Summer”
Michael Stuhlbarg, “A Serious Man”

Best Lead Actress, Musical or Comedy:
Sandra Bullock, “The Proposal”
Marion Cotillard, “Nine”
Julia Roberts, “Duplicity”
Meryl Streep, “It’s Complicated”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Best Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Julianne Moore, “A Single Man”

Best Foreign Language Film:
“Baaria”
“Broken Embraces”
“The Maid (La Nana)”
“A Prophet”
“The White Ribbon”

Best Animated Film:
“Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs”
“Coraline”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Princess and the Frog”
“Up”

Best Screenplay:
Neill Blomkamp, “District 9″
Mark Boal, “The Hurt Locker”
Nancy Meyers, “It’s Complicated”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Original Score:
Michael Giacchino, “Up”
Marvin Hamlisch, “The Informant!”
James Horner, “Avatar”
Abel Korzeniowski, “A Single Man”
Karen O, Carter Burwell, “Where the Wild Things Are”

Best Original Song:
“Cinema Italiano” (written by Maury Yeston), “Nine”
“I Want to Come Home” (written by Paul McCartney); “Everybody’s Fine”
“I Will See You” (written by James Horner, Simon Franglen, Kuk Harrell);
“Avatar”
“The Weary Kind (Theme from ‘Crazy Heart’)” (written by Ryan Bingham, T Bone Burnett), “Crazy Heart”
“Winter” (written by U2), “Brothers”

TELEVISION:

Best Series, Drama:
“Big Love,” HBO
“Dexter,” Showtime
“House,” Fox
“Mad Men,” AMC
“True Blood,” HBO

Best Actor, Drama:
Simon Baker, “The Mentalist”
Michael C. Hall, “Dexter”
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Hugh Laurie, “House”
Bill Paxton, “Big Love”

Best Actress, Drama:
Glenn Close, “Damages”
January Jones, “Mad Men”
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”
Anna Paquin, “True Blood”
Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer”

Best Series, Musical or Comedy:
“30 Rock,” NBC
“Entourage,” HBO
“Glee,” Fox
“Modern Family,” ABC
“The Office,” NBC

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy:
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
Steve Carell, “The Office”
David Duchovny, “Californication”
Thomas Jane, “Hung”
Matthew Morrison, “Glee”

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy:
Toni Collette, “United States of Tara”
Courteney Cox, “Cougar Town”
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”
Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
Lea Michele, “Glee”

Best Miniseries or Movie:
“Georgia O’Keeffe,” Lifetime Television
“Grey Gardens,” HBO
“Into the Storm,” HBO
“Little Dorrit,” PBS
“Taking Chance,” HBO

Best Actress, Miniseries or Movie:
Joan Allen, “Georgia O’Keeffe”
Drew Barrymore, “Grey Gardens”
Jessica Lange, “Grey Gardens”
Anna Paquin, “The Courageous Heart of Irena Sendler”
Sigourney Weaver, “Prayers for Bobby”

Best Actor, Miniseries or Movie:
Kevin Bacon, “Taking Chance”
Kenneth Branagh, “Wallander: One Step Behind”
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “Endgame”
Brendan Gleeson, “Into the Storm”
Jeremy Irons, “Georgia O’Keeffe”

Best Supporting Actress, Series, Miniseries or Movie:
Jane Adams, “Hung”
Rose Byrne, “Damages”
Jane Lynch, “Glee”
Janet McTeer, “Into the Storm”
Chloe Sevigny, “Big Love”

Best Supporting Actor, Series, Miniseries or Movie:
Michael Emerson, “Lost”
Neil Patrick Harris, “How I Met Your Mother”
William Hurt, “Damages”
John Lithgow, “Dexter”
Jeremy Piven, “Entourage”

Cecil B. DeMille Lifetime Achievement Award: Martin Scorsese.

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Now remember, for what it’s worth these are ONLY the Golden Globes.  This is not the Oscars, nor is it any of the Guild awards.  This is an awards show that rewards glitz and glamor and a merely 92 people that make up the Hollywood Foreign Press Association votes for the winners.  It is no where close to the prestige it is to win an Academy Award that is made up of over 6,000 professionals in the cinema industry.

That being said, here are a few thoughts:

- It’s weird looking at only five Best Picture nominees for Drama.  I know in total the Golden Globes have 10 Best Picture nominees (just like this year’s Oscars), but let’s be honest.  The Hangover will NOT be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars.
- Tobey Maguire (Brothers) over Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)?  Really?
- Because of its limit, the Best Supporting Acting categories, Best Screenplay, and Best Director are the real prizes of the night.
- There’s really not much to say about the TV categories.  The same shows get nominated year after year.  The new show here is “Glee.”
- This is where I get confused.  The GG rewards movies like The Hangover for its impact in the box office (and nothing else), but the top-rated comedies on CBS almost gets completely shut out.  What’s the deal?

5 Things about The Golden Globes

The Golden Globes returned with a fine ceremony.  Here are five things I specifically liked:

1.  Slumdog Millionaire cleaning house! I can’t say that I was completely surprised by this… but I was a little bit.  I thought the HFPA would give Slumdog their due, but not like this:  Best Picture, Best Director, Best Score, and Best Screenplay.  Four for four!  Everyone in the world loves this movie.  What can stop this from winning the Oscar?

2.  Kate Winslet finally gets her due.  Prior to the 66th annual Golden Globes, Mrs. Winslet has been nominated for 5 Golden Globe awards and 5 Oscars… and she has no trophies to show for it.  It’s hard to pick only one year saying “This was Kate Winslet’s year” because she has so many.  Titanic exploded her to fame but she continued choosing artistic and meaningful films like Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Little Children, and Finding Neverland.  Finally this year she has two movies out:  The Reader and Revolutionary Road.  And there was no surprise she picked up her 6th and 7th Globe nomination… but it was a shock that she walked away with two trophies.  Now will The Academy follow suit?  They really should.

3.  Heath Ledger wins Best Supporting Actor.  Not like anyone was surprised by this, but Christopher Nolan accepted the award for Ledger and gave a precise yet sweet speech that was perfect.

4.  Other notable speeches:  Mickey Rourke (Aronofsky flipping him the bird), Colin Farrell (joking about cocaine), Tina Fey (telling her online critics to “suck it!”), and Tracy Morgan (just his usual ridiculousness).  All were hilarious.

5.  Steven Speilberg’s Lifetime Achievement Award. This has been in the making for a long time.

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And here are 3 not so good things…

1.  We all knew the program is 3-hours long, but they always allow the beginning award winners to talk endlessly and cut off the winners to the most important awards at the end.  What’s that about?

2.  Sure, having the stars of TV and movies all in one room with alcohol makes for good television.  But honestly, who cares about television awards?  When you see the same exact actors playing the same character nominated in the same category year-after-year, where’s the excitement in that?

3.  This year’s Golden Globes produced the second worst ratings since 1995.  So while it was quite a ceremony, people just didn’t tune in.

The Golden Globes Diary 2009 – Live Blog!

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