Oscar Buzz

Updated 2/15

Here are my predictions  for the 85th Annual Academy Awards:

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Best Picture

• “Amour” Nominees to be determined
• “Argo” Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney, Producers
• “Beasts of the Southern Wild” Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald, Producers
• “Django Unchained” Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone, Producers
• “Les Misérables” Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh, Producers
• “Life of Pi” Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark, Producers
• “Lincoln” Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
• “Silver Linings Playbook” Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
• “Zero Dark Thirty” Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison, Producers

This is going to be a year to remember in Oscar history. Just take all of this in. When Argo wins, it will be the fourth film in Oscar’s 85 years to win Best Picture without receiving a Best Director nomination (second in the past 80 years to Driving Miss Daisy). It will also become the second film in Oscar history to win Best Picture with the fourth most nominations (Chariots of Fire). Hey, it’s a great story and everyone loves Ben Affleck, who has been a phenomenal director for the past several years. His snub for Best Director might have been the best thing to ever happen to him because it really gained attention because of that.

While I loved Argo, it’s hard for me to really be satisfied with it as the Best Picture. But looking back at recent memory, the Academy loves those safe films that everyone likes. The King’s Speech and The Artist are two examples that no one in the world can dislike. Argo follows in those footsteps.

Prediction: Argo

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Best Lead Actor

• Bradley Cooper in “Silver Linings Playbook”
• Daniel Day-Lewis in “Lincoln”
• Hugh Jackman in “Les Misérables”
• Joaquin Phoenix in “The Master”
• Denzel Washington in “Flight”

Some are saying Bradley Cooper has a legitimate shot at winning this. If that happens, then my faith will be completely lost because out of these 5 performances, Cooper is the one that doesn’t fit. But I guess that’s just my opinion. This award is going to DD-L and it will be his third Oscar award, making him the only actor in history with three Best Lead Actor awards. Man, this Oscars telecast is going to be historic!

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

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Best Lead Actress

• Jessica Chastain in “Zero Dark Thirty”
• Jennifer Lawrence in “Silver Linings Playbook”
• Emmanuelle Riva in “Amour”
• Quvenzhané Wallis in “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
• Naomi Watts in “The Impossible”

While Jessica Chastain was great in Zero Dark Thirty, this category looks all but locked for the most popular actress in the world right now, Jennifer Lawrence. Though I’m hearing that quite a few voters are going for Emmanuelle Riva, so she’s on the alert for an upset possibility.

But when it comes down to it, Chastain’s performance was great but how many voters can really find an emotional connection to her Maya? And for Riva, it would be a great story for her to win on her birthday, but how many voters actually watched Amour (or even enjoyed it)? The same goes for Naomi Watts. Meanwhile, the gorgeous Jennifer Lawrence was the star in a very crowd-pleasing movie.

Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

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Best Director

• “Amour” Michael Haneke
• “Beasts of the Southern Wild” Benh Zeitlin
• “Life of Pi” Ang Lee
• “Lincoln” Steven Spielberg
• “Silver Linings Playbook” David O. Russell

Here’s a tricky category. If Ben Affleck was nominated, he’d definitely win. But he’s not nominated. Common sense would point to a win for Steven Spielberg since Lincoln is dealing with great success across the board (12 nominations + highest gross of all Best Picture nominees). But then again, if Lincoln was REALLY being perceived so well in the Academy, then why is it losing everything? Aside from Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln has practically been shut out of the awards season. This makes me believe that Spielberg won’t win Best Director, because if he did then Lincoln should win Best Picture.

The same thing can be said about Ang Lee and Life of Pi. With a whopping 11 nominations, if Ang Lee were to really win Best Director, don’t you think Life of Pi would be a major player for Best Picture. And just like Lincoln, it’s not. I don’t believe they’ll win. Which leaves me to the Haneke vs. Russell debate (because frankly, Benh Zeitlin’s award is being nominated). David O. Russell and Silver Linings Playbook is very well-received in the Academy, enough so that I’ll consider him as the front-runner of this category. But I’m going to use my upset pick here and say Haneke will get the award.

Prediction: Michael Haneke (Amour)

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Best Supporting Actor

• Alan Arkin in “Argo”
• Robert De Niro in “Silver Linings Playbook”
• Philip Seymour Hoffman in “The Master”
• Tommy Lee Jones in “Lincoln”
• Christoph Waltz in “Django Unchained”

This is another tricky category. Everyone here has won an Oscar before, so there’s none of that newcomer vs. veteran discussion. I think it’s going to come down to how much the Academy likes certain movies. If they absolutely love Argo that much, then Alan Arkin will win. Then again, there seems to be a lot of support for Silver Linings Playbook and they’re pushing for De Niro since he hasn’t won in 31 years. And then there’s Christoph Waltz, whom EVERYONE likes. Man, this is a tough one but I think they’ll actually reward the actor who gave the best performance.

Prediction: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

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Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams in “The Master”
• Sally Field in “Lincoln”
• Anne Hathaway in “Les Misérables”
• Helen Hunt in “The Sessions”
• Jacki Weaver in “Silver Linings Playbook”

Some will make an argument for Sally Field, but I don’t see that happening.

Prediction: Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)

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Best Original Screenplay

• “Amour” Written by Michael Haneke
• “Django Unchained” Written by Quentin Tarantino
• “Flight” Written by John Gatins
• “Moonrise Kingdom” Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
• “Zero Dark Thirty” Written by Mark Boal

At first, it looked like Mark Boal was on his way to another Oscar for his screenplay, but Zero Dark Thirty hit a wave of bad publicity practically ruining it. So we have Haneke vs. Tarantino, and Tarantino can’t walk away without an Oscar, right?

Prediction: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

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Best Adapted Screenplay

• “Argo” Screenplay by Chris Terrio
• “Beasts of the Southern Wild” Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
• “Life of Pi” Screenplay by David Magee
• “Lincoln” Screenplay by Tony Kushner
• “Silver Linings Playbook” Screenplay by David O. Russell

Another toss up here between Chris Terrio and Tony Kushner. Does the Academy love Argo that much, or just Ben Affleck? We’ll find out soon.

Prediction: Chris Terrio (Argo)

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Best Animated Feature

• “Brave” Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
• “Frankenweenie” Tim Burton
• “ParaNorman” Sam Fell and Chris Butler
• “The Pirates! Band of Misfits” Peter Lord
• “Wreck-It Ralph” Rich Moore

Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph

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Best Cinematography

• “Anna Karenina” Seamus McGarvey
• “Django Unchained” Robert Richardson
• “Life of Pi” Claudio Miranda
• “Lincoln” Janusz Kaminski
• “Skyfall” Roger Deakins

Will this be the year that Roger Deakins finally wins the Oscar? You have to feel for the guy, but nonetheless year after year he does great work. But how do you contend with the cinematography in Life of Pi?

Prediction: Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi)

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Best Film Editing

• “Argo” William Goldenberg
• “Life of Pi” Tim Squyres
• “Lincoln” Michael Kahn
• “Silver Linings Playbook” Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
• “Zero Dark Thirty” Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg

This is a packed category. I’d like to imagine that if there were only five Best Picture nominees, these would be the five films. But I feel the Argo train will take this one.

Prediction: William Goldenberg (Argo)

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Best Foreign Language Film

• “Amour” Austria
• “Kon-Tiki” Norway
• “No” Chile
• “A Royal Affair” Denmark
• “War Witch” Canada

Prediction: Amour

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Best Costume Design

• “Anna Karenina” Jacqueline Durran
• “Les Misérables” Paco Delgado
• “Lincoln” Joanna Johnston
• “Mirror Mirror” Eiko Ishioka
• “Snow White and the Huntsman” Colleen Atwood

Prediction: Jacqueline Durran (Anna Karenina)

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Best Documentary

• “5 Broken Cameras”, Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
• “The Gatekeepers”, Nominees to be determined
• “How to Survive a Plague”, Nominees to be determined
• “The Invisible War”, Nominees to be determined
• “Searching for Sugar Man”, Nominees to be determined

Prediction: Searching for Sugar Man

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Best Documentary, Short Subject

• “Inocente” Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine
• “Kings Point” Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
• “Mondays at Racine” Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan
• “Open Heart” Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern
• “Redemption” Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill

Prediction: Inocente

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Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• “Hitchcock” Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
• “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
• “Les Misérables” Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell

Prediction: Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)

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Best Original Score

• “Anna Karenina” Dario Marianelli
• “Argo” Alexandre Desplat
• “Life of Pi” Mychael Danna
• “Lincoln” John Williams
• “Skyfall” Thomas Newman

Prediction: Mychael Danna (Life of Pi)

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Best Original Song

• “Before My Time” from “Chasing Ice” Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
• “Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from “Ted” Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
• “Pi’s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi” Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
• “Skyfall” from “Skyfall” Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
• “Suddenly” from “Les Misérables” Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil

Prediction: Skyfall

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Best Production Design

• “Anna Karenina” Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
• “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” Production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
• “Les Misérables” Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
• “Life of Pi” Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
• “Lincoln” Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson

Prediction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer (Anna Karenina)

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Best Animated, Short

• “Adam and Dog” Minkyu Lee
• “Fresh Guacamole” PES
• “Head over Heels” Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly
• “Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”” David Silverman
• “Paperman” John Kahrs

Prediction: Paperman

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Best Live Action, Short

• “Asad” Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
• “Buzkashi Boys” Sam French and Ariel Nasr
• “Curfew” Shawn Christensen
• “Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)” Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
• “Henry” Yan England

Prediction: Death of a Shadow

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Best Sound Editing

• “Argo” Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn
• “Django Unchained” Wylie Stateman
• “Life of Pi” Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
• “Skyfall” Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
• “Zero Dark Thirty” Paul N.J. Ottosson

Prediction: Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton (Life of Pi)

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Best Sound Mixing

• “Argo” John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia
• “Les Misérables” Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes
• “Life of Pi” Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
• “Lincoln” Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
• “Skyfall” Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson

Prediction: Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes (Les Misérables)

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Best Visual Effects

• “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
• “Life of Pi” Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
• “Marvel’s The Avengers” Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
• “Prometheus” Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
• “Snow White and the Huntsman” Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson

Prediction: Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott (Life of Pi)

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Key dates to remember:

• Monday, December 17, 2012 – Nominations voting begins.
• Thursday, January 3, 2013 – Nominations polls closes.
• Thursday, January 10, 2013 – Nominations announced 8:30 a.m.
• Friday, February 8, 2013 – Final voting begins.
• Tuesday, February 19, 2013 – Final polls close.
• Sunday, February 24, 2013 – 85th Annual Academy Awards.

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Oscar Talk 2012:

• Early Oscar Chatter
• “Lincoln” for Best Picture
• Argo in Lead?
• Look out for Zero Dark Thirty
• 19th Annual SAG Awards Nominations
• 2013 Golden Globes Nominations
• Do Critics Awards Mean a Thing?
• DGA Nominations Predictions
• The 85th Annual Oscar Nominations
• Thoughts about the Oscar Noms
• Live Blogging: The 70th Annual Golden Globes
• So Where Are We? (1/25/13)
• The DGA Awards are important (1/29/13)