Best Picture Nominations LOCKED In

With the nominations polls closing today (Jan. 12) and the nominees being announced on January 22… I (along with every other person following the Oscar race) am confident we already have our five films that will be nominated for Best Picture.  They are:

– The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Dark Knight
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- Slumdog Millionaire

There you have it.  All of the fun prior to the nominees being announced have gone right out the window.  There are no serious dark horses with the potential of bumping out one of the Top 5.  If you believe Doubt, Gran Torino, Revolutionary Road, The Reader, WALL-E, or any other film deserves to be nominated, I’m afraid your view differs from The Academy’s.  Of course, I can be ridiculously wrong and on January 22 I will write a post about feeling foolish for stating these films as LOCKS… but I doubt it.

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Here are the major Guilds nominations…

Screen Actors Guild Nominations (Outstanding Performance by a Cast):

- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Doubt
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- Slumdog Millionaire

Writers Guild of America Nominations:

Original Screenplay:
- Joel, Ethan Coen (Burn After Reading)
- Dustin Lance Black (Milk)
- Woody Allen (Vicky Christina Barcelona)
- Thomas McCarthy (The Visitor)
- Robert D. Siegel (The Wrestler)

Adapted Screenplay:
- Eric Roth, Robin Swicord (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
- Jonathan Nolan, Christopher Nolan, David S. Goyer (The Dark Knight)
- John Patrick Shanley (Doubt)
- Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon)
- Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire)

Producers Guild of America Nominations:

- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Dark Knight
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- Slumdog Millionaire

Directors Guild of America Nominations:

- Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
- David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
- Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
- Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)
- Gus Van Sant (Milk)

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So as you can see, there’s repetition among the separate guilds… meaning that those five are basically locks.  Boo hoo, no suspense from now until the announcement… so I guess we can start the discussion of “Who will win Best Picture?” early!  Who is the front-runner?  I’d say that right now it’s Slumdog Millionaire.  But I can easily see Milk or Benjamin Button winning it.  Unless Milk gets the Brokeback Mountain treatment, then it doesn’t stand a chance.

If you’re looking for excitement from now until the nominations are announced, look elsewhere than the Best Picture category.  The acting races are very interesting and I can see a number of surprises come Jan. 22.  But if you’re bitter over the five Best Picture locks and agree that because of this 2008 wasn’t as good of a year for films than the past… read MCN’s David Poland’s article here.  He makes a number of good points… I especially like how he targets acting nominations and winners as a result of career achievements rather than the year’s best performance.  I don’t agree with it, but it is how The Academy seems to work.  So does that mean Clint Eastwood’s performance in Gran Torino will legitimately compete against Mickey Rourke, Sean Penn, and Frank Langella?  Maybe so.  Is it really worthy enough to win?  I don’t think so, but Eastwood is a legend and this might be his last acting performance ever.  So you never know.

Box Office Results: ‘Gran Torino’ finishes first

Studio Estimates for Jan. 9-11:

1.  Gran Torino – $29 million
2.  Bride Wars – $21.5 million
3.  The Unborn – $21.1 million
4.  Marley & Me – $11.4 million
5.  The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – $9.5 million

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It’s a pleasant surprise for me to see the box office results showing the Clint Eastwood drama at the top spot over those horrific, new release mainstream films.  But Bride Wars and The Unborn did gross a good amount over the weekend, so it’s not like they bombed.

Next weekend will be a very competitive box office with new releases such as Hotel for Dogs, My Bloody Valentine 3-D, Notorious, Paul Blart: Mall Cop, and Defiance.  Check back Friday for our predictions.