Box Office Predictions (Jan. 30 – Feb. 1)

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All right what do we have this weekend?  Oh yeah, the Superbowl!  I figure a handful of people around the world should be tuning in and watching the Arizona Cardinals battle it out with the Pittsburgh Steelers… but in addition to that there are a trio of new releases.

First, the action/thriller Taken will be coming to over 3,000 theaters nationwide.  Starring Liam Neeson and Maggie Grace, the movie is about a former spy trying to save his daughter who has been forced into the slave trade.  This should really pull in a huge audience, but is Liam Neeson a big enough lead to win the box office?  The PG-13 rating certainly helps… but why is this film being released in the US so late?  There are already 30,000 IMDB votes for this movie, which has been already released in every other country except for Germany.  It has a fairly strong word of mouth that could slingshot Taken to the top.

Next, the horror movie titled The Uninvited.  Yeah, I know The Unborn is still out… how many people do you think are going to walk into the wrong movie this weekend?  Or even better, how many people do you think won’t even notice they’re watching The Unborn instead of The Uninvited?  Anyway, The Uninvited is just another teen horror film with a slightly bigger cast: Elizabeth Banks.  Aside from that, it should do fairly well like all crappy horror movies do.

Last, the romantic comedy New in Town starring Renee Zellweger and Harry Connick Jr.  This definitely plays to the women demographic and hopes to attract anyone who wants to skip the Superbowl.  But released in less than 2,000 theaters and poor marketing will probably result in a box office bust.

Here are our predictions:

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My Predictions:

1.  Taken – $20 million
2.  Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $14 million
3.  Gran Torino – $11 million
4.  The Uninvited – $10 million
5.  Slumdog Millionaire – $10 million

Phil’s Predictions:

1.  Taken – $25 million
2.  The Uninvited – $19 million
3.  New in Town – $14 million
4.  Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $9 million
5.  Underworld: Rise of the Lycans – $8 million

Chris’s Predictions:

1.  Taken – $23 million
2.  Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $18 million
3.  Slumdog Millionaire – $15 million
4.  Underworld: Rise of the Lycans – $11 million
5.  The Uninvited – $9 million

Lost Reaction (S05E03)

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Desmonds’ got a baby! Leave it to Lost to make you think something really bizarre is going to happen and then BAM!.. It’s nothing really important.  Flash to the island and we see a bunch of “others” who are holding the scientists, as I’ll call them, hostage now. And who is the leader of these “others”?  None other (get the pun) than Richard Alpert himself…again he is everywhere… or should I say everywhen?  This time seems to be the first time he’s ever been because it’s like 1954. Locke’s got “people” which is why he doesn’t shoot one of the “others” who turns out to be…I’m getting there don’t worry.  We cut back to Desmond who goes to find Faraday’s mother, but instead figures out the first time he saw Faraday (which is actually the first time we saw Faraday and not the first time he saw him in time sequential order…if you can follow what I mean) was in the past. He then goes to see some girl who’s connected to Faraday and is being kept alive by Charles Widmore.  Why? I don’t know…Third base! (For those youngsters out there, that’s a reference to Abbot and Costello) So who’s that young guy running around snapping people’s necks and claiming he knows the island better then John Locke? It’s a very young Charles Widmore! Oh, and Charlotte bites the dust.

Mainly this episode confused me more than anything else.  I’m not sure where the Widmore story is going but I definitely didn’t see that coming. Desmond looks like he’s going to end up back on the island sooner or later…which is awesome. Who is Richard?  Why does he seem to be such a key piece in the things we don’t know yet?  Who is Faraday’s mother and what’s she going to do? Why did Faraday mess up the presumed love of his life? Why is there an H-Bomb on the island? So many questions…. I love this show!  I can’t wait for the next episode.

– Sheehan

Lost – Season 5 Premiere Reactions

My dear Blur readers… I present to you my good friend, Sheehan, who will be reporting in regularly giving his  reactions to season five of Lost.  Here’s his first post discussing his thoughts on the season premiere’s first two episodes.

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Too much time has gone by since the last season of Lost but oh my, it’s back with a vengeance in classic Lost style by creating a million questions and only answering a few.  I liked it from the very beginning of the episode when we are flung back in time to see Dr. Training Video himself, along with his wife and his baby (possibly a young Miles). Then Dr. Training Video goes to the cave and we see Dan Faraday!!!  WTF?  As the episode progresses we see that people are stuck in time… so did Faraday come from the future or is that his starting place and then he jumps into the future? Moving on, Locke gets lost in time, Hurley and Sayid fight secret agents, Ben and Jack develop a plan to get everyone and go back to the island, Kate and Aaron run away from a paternity test, Desmond is going to Oxford to meet Faraday’s mom, and Sun wants to kill Ben. Ok now that that’s out of the way, here is my reaction:  WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON???

Whatever it is, I like it! I love Desmond so I’m pumped he’s back, but I really don’t understand where his story line can go from here. I’m a tad surprised that Jack is instantly on the same side as Ben, although I guess you can’t really say they’re on the same side; they’re just working to achieve a similar goal of getting back to the island. So the first episode was great.  It gave us a clear outline of things to come for the season.  We have two main story lines revolving around each other: Lost in L.A. and Lost on the island. The second episode dealt a lot with Hurley and him trying to prove he is sane, which we all know he is. We are kind of left to assume Locke is somehow alive, which I don’t get but I think it’s a good choice because he’s a very dynamic part of the show.  Who the heck is this old woman? And why is she so seemingly powerful??  All I know is that I was happy when Neil got hit with a flaming arrow, which just needed to happen. You can find more reactions and questions here next week.

– Sheehan

Box Office Results: Paul Blart does it again

Studio Estimates for Jan. 23-25:

1.  Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $21.5 million
2.  Underworld: Rise of the Lycans – $20.7 million
3.  Gran Torino – $16 million
4.  Hotel for Dogs – $12.3 million
5.  Slumdog Millionaire – $10.5 million

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Paul Blart: Mall Cop finished at the top for the second straight week, bringing its total gross to about $65 million.  Kevin James certainly is making a case that he can be a bankable leading comedy actor.  As for the two new releases this past weekend, Underworld: Rise of the Lycans was runner-up with $20.7 million but Inkheart landed #7 with $7.7 million.  The two notable films in this weekend’s box office were Slumdog Millionaire taking the #5 spot with $10.5 million with a relatively small release of 1,411 screens ($7,477 per theater average; the highest of the weekend) and how Notorious dropped over 72% from last weekend’s earnings for $5.7 (ranked #10).

Check back Friday for our new predictions when three new releases battle it out for the top spot:  The Uninvited, Taken, and New in Town.

Things Up Ahead

Okay, so it’s January 23rd… 2009 is almost one-twelth completed, so here are a few things to expect from me in the near future (this is basically a to-do list for myself):

 - I will watch The Reader and write about it.
 - My Top Ten Movies of 2008.
 - Reactions to all of the upcoming Guild awards.
 - More television posts, especially from the two shows I’m actually watching that’s on the air:  Lost and Heroes.
 - Continue my research and eventually write a feature about the saddest films of all-time.
 - Continue to write and review films and TV-shows (and hopefully finding someone to write about music).
 - Research the Oscars nominees and watch the telecast on February 22nd.

Box Office Predictions (Jan. 23-25)

So the Oscar nominations were announced yesterday, which should give those films an extra boost in the box office… especially those that are getting a wider release such as Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire, Rachel Getting Married, and The Wrestler.  But the two new releases this weekend should compete against each other, and last weekend’s winner Paul Blart: Mall Cop, for the new crown.

The third installment of the Underworld franchise, Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, hits the big screen.  Without star Kate Beckinsale, I wonder if there are any fans left in the Underworld series.  This release is the prequel to the 2003 film that should explain the rival between vampires and werewolves.  This R-rated action/fantasy should gross around $20 million.

And then there’s Inkheart, the Brendan Fraser family/adventure/fantasy film.  Is it me or has he been doing a lot of these lately?  I mean with all the Mummy movies and then Journey to the Center of the Earth… I can’t think of another film he’s done in the past three years.  Anyway, Inkheart will be competing against other family films out like Hotel for Dogs and Paul Blart: Mall Cop, which should bump it out of the Top 5.

Here are my predictions:

1.  Underworld: Rise of the Lycans – $22 million
2.  Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $18 million
3.  Gran Torino – $14 million
4.  Notorious – $10 million
5.  Slumdog Millionaire – $9 million

Chris’s predictions:

1.  Underworld: Rise of the Lycans – $25 million
2.  Notorious – $19 million
3.  Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $18 million
4.  My Bloody Valentine – $15 million
5.  Inkheart – $12 million

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Check back Monday for the box office results.

Oscar Nomination Reactions

For a complete list of the nominations, visit IMDB.com.

Well the Academy has spoken… and they did not disappoint with a handful of surprises this morning.  The most notable being The Reader and director Stephen Daldry bumping out The Dark Knight for Best Picture and Christopher Nolan for Best Director.  I can’t say I’m completely surprised as my predictions did suggest The Reader playing the part as the upset potential, but Stephen Daldry over Christopher Nolan for Best Director… now that was a shocker!

Let’s see what else… Clint Eastwood got snubbed in the Best Lead Actor category.  I was really glad that the Academy acknowledged Richard Jenkins for The Visitor, a film most people probably never even heard of.  If there’s an area the Academy usually get right, it’s the acting categories.  The race is going to be Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) and Sean Penn (Milk) in this category.

For Best Lead Actress, there was a few surprises.  Everyone knew Kate Winslet was going to get a nomination here, but we all thought for Revolutionary Road.  Instead, she got a lead nomination for The Reader, which she campaigned to get a nod in the Best Supporting Actress category.  This reminds me of a few years ago when Leonardo DiCaprio had The Departed and Blood Diamond and everyone penned DiCaprio in for a Best Acting nod for The Departed… but the Academy acknowledged him for Blood Diamond.  Quite a bizarre switcheroo.  The other surprise was the nod to Melissa Leo (Frozen River).  I didn’t think enough of the Academy saw or knew about the film to vote Leo in… unfortunately her inclusion results in the snub for Sally Hawkins, who was 100% deserving of a nomination.

In the Supporting Acting categories, Slumdog Millionaire struck out when many people, including myself, though the buzz of the film would bump their two young faces, Dev Patel and Freida Pintel, in.  Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) was able to take the final spot while the rest were predicted.  As for Supporting Actresses, the duo of Doubt (Viola Davis and Amy Adams) secured nominations, and since Kate Winslet got nominated in the Best Lead Actress category for The Reader, that left the door open for Taraji P. Henson (Benjamin Button) to swoop in.  Also, congrats to Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler).

In the writing categories, I am surprised that Rachel Getting Married and Vicky Christina Barcelona didn’t get a nomination.  Instead, In Bruges and Frozen River secured their spots along with WALL-E, Milk, and Happy-Go-Lucky.  For the Adapted category, The Reader played spoiler again to The Dark Knight, stealing the nom from the superhero juggernaut.  The rest of the nominations include Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, and Slumdog Millionaire.

And for the rest… Man on Wire was nominated for Best Doc, and will probably win… The Class and Waltz with Bashir will be the contenders for Best Foreign Language Film… Bolt, Kung Fu Panda, and WALL-E for Best Animated Feature (we all know who’s going to with that)… Iron Man wound up with a few nominations in Sound Editing and Visual Effects.

Overall, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button led all films with 13 nominations followed by Slumdog Millionaire with 10 nominations.  Some notable points from this morning are that Slumdog Millionaire received all the nominations and buzz but did not receive one acting nod, AND Doubt received four acting nods but not a Best Picture nomination.  But the big story remains The Reader bumping out The Dark Knight for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay.  This just proves that the Academy is not ready to recognize a superhero or comic-book film yet… which doesn’t make sense to me.  If the Academy is open to reward fantasy and sci-fi films like Lord of the Rings and Star Wars… why not a layered and excellent film like The Dark Knight?  I’m disappointed.

So now the final ballots will be shipped out and in one month, The Academy Awards ceremony will be aired.  My early guess… I still can’t see any film taking away Slumdog Millionaire’s buzz, but if there was a film that could do it, Benjamin Button with its 13 nominations can.  It’s epic and grossed over $100 million… that usually results in Academy Award winners.

Oscar Nominations Tomorrow!

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS:

Best Picture:

- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Dark Knight
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- Slumdog Millionaire

Potential Upset:  The Reader
Who I want to receive a nom:  WALL-E

Best Director:

- Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
- David Fincher (Benjamin Button)
- Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
- Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)
- Gus Van Sant (Milk)

Potential Upset:  Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler)
Who I want to receive a nom:  Andrew Stanton (WALL-E)

Best Lead Actor:

- Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)
- Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
- Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
- Sean Penn (Milk)
- Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

Potential Upset:  Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button)
Who I want to receive a nom:  Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road)

Best Lead Actress:

- Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
- Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)
- Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
- Meryl Streep (Doubt)
- Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)

Potential Upset:  Melissa Leo (Frozen River)
Who I want to receive a nom:  Michelle Williams (Wendy & Lucy)

Best Supporting Actor:

- Josh Brolin (Milk)
- Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
- Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
- Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
- Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire)

Potential Upset:  Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)
Who I want to receive a nom:  Eddie Marsan (Happy Go Lucky)

Best Supporting Actress:

- Amy Adams (Doubt)
- Penelope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona)
- Viola Davis (Doubt)
- Taraji P. Henson (Benjamin Button)
- Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Potential Upset:  Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Who I want to receive a nom:  Freida Pinto (Slumdog Millionaire)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Doubt
- Frost/Nixon
- Revolutionary Road
- Slumdog Millionaire

Potential Upset:  The Reader
Who I want to receive a nom:  The Dark Knight

Best Original Screenplay:

- Happy-Go-Lucky
- Milk
- Rachel Getting Married
- Vicky Christina Barcelona
- WALL-E

Potential Upset:  The Wrestler
Who I want to receive a nom:  The Visitor

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The time has come.  The Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning.  After spending the last few months speculating and analyzing awards, top ten lists, etc. the nominees will finally be revealed.  It has been an interesting year for film in 2008, and the awards season has been fun to watch as well.

It seems as though the Best Picture nominations are locked in for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, and Slumdog Millionaire.  There is still an outside shot for The Reader that scored a Golden Globe and BAFTA nomination.  Like last year’s Atonement, if the Brits can swing for The Reader, it might be able to pull an upset.  Another unlikely movie that can snag a nomination is WALL-E.  It’s the best reviewed film of the year and there is a really passionate following for the Pixar masterpiece.  With the process the Academy takes to come up with the nominations, WALL-E might actually benefit from the procedure since the people who support it will most likely put it as their #1 spot.  Who knows.  Anything can happen, right?

If there were to be an upset, my opinion is that Frost/Nixon would be the film to be bumped out.  Of course, experts have stressed their concern for Milk as well, since they’re both political movies and might split the Academy’s votes.  Heck, maybe the votes are split evenly and they both miss the boat.  But when I look back at Frost/Nixon, I see an excellent performance by Frank Langella, great directing by Ron Howard, and a great script penned by Peter Morgan.  All of these things sure add up to a Best Picture nomination, but if we were choosing which film is more of a lock, then I must go with Milk.  Milk has a better lead performance in Sean Penn, better directing and writing by Gus Van Sant, and a better ensemble cast with Josh Brolin, Emile Hirsch, and James Franco.

But it’s odd for me saying that if any film was to get snubbed it would be Frost/Nixon, because I think that The Dark Knight is the weakest of the category.  Then again, it should most definitely get a nomination.  The year 2008 will be remembered as the year of The Dark Knight… and on top of that the film was extremely good.  It’s just that it’s a superhero movie and it definitely doesn’t “feel” like an Oscar contender.  But hey, if The Dark Knight were to miss the cut and WALL-E would get in… I’m all for that!

While the Best Picture category seems to be a lock, the rest of the categories are not nearly as clear.  For Leading Best Actor, we know Mickey Rourke, Sean Penn, and Frank Langella are in… but who gets the last two spots?  I’m pretty sure Clint Eastwood will get a nomination just because he’s freakin’ Clint Eastwood… also because he gives a wonderful performance in Gran Torino.  So then the last spot is left open to Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Richard Jenkins, or Benicio Del Toro.  I think the safe bet is to go with Brad Pitt, but my gut is telling me that the Academy will vote for Richard Jenkins who was magnificent in the very small film, The Visitor.

For Best Supporting Actor, the only nomination that’s up in the air is Dev Patel for Slumdog Millionaire.  There’s a good chance Michael Shannon replaces him from Revoluntionary Road… but Slumdog’s been running away with things lately and I just couldn’t bet against it.

For Best Leading Actress there are some openings.  Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet, and Anne Hathaway seem to be locks… leaving two remaining spaces.  Contenders are Sally Hawkins, Kristin Scott Thomas, Melissa Leo, Angelina Jolie, Cate Blanchett, and Michelle Williams.  Those are some brilliant performances and only two are going to get in.  It’s a shame.  Wendy & Lucy and Frozen River are too small to get acknowledged, so I don’t think Michelle Williams or Melissa Leo will get in.  I can’t imagine Sally Hawkins not getting a nomination… and then for the final spot I have to pen in Angelina Jolie.

For Best Supporting Actress, this is usually an interesting category and this year is no different.  The only certain nominations seem to be Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona and Kate Winslet in The Reader.  Viola Davis and Amy Adams are both very strong contenders, but will being in the same movie hurt their chances?  And then there’s Taraji P. Henson, Marisa Tomei, and Freida Pinto.  I wasn’t too excited about Tomei’s performance in The Wrestler, and although Pinto’s in the rolling Slumdog Millionaire, I don’t think she’ll get a nod.  So that leaves me with the caring mother performance in Benjamin Button.

Finally… for Best Director, we have a number of great people this year.  But the thing to look out for is the ONE director who is able to sneak into the Best Director category without his movie nominated for a Best Picture.  This has happened time and time again, so what’s going to happen this year?  I think the surprise will be that there is no surprise.  I think that this year the directors and Best Picture nominations will balance out with every Best Picture nod, the director will also get a nod… but if there is one director I can see continuing the trend, I’d have to go with Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler). 

So there you have it.  Check back tomorrow morning when the Oscar nominations and my reactions are posted.

Box Office Results: Mall Cop on Top

Studio Estimates for Jan. 16-19:

1.  Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $39 million
2.  Gran Torino – $26.2 million
3.  My Bloody Valentine: 3-D – $24.2 million
4.  Notorious – $24 million
5.  Hotel for Dogs – $22.5 million

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Well this MLK weekend sure was a good one for the box office, a lot better than I expected.  Good work from our new predictor, Chris, who nailed the box office winner in Paul Blart: Mall Cop.  I was the only one to predict all Top 5 films although my gross predictions were quite off.

What’s in store for next week?  Well we have two new wide releases for you fantasy lovers:  Inkheart and Underworld: Rise of the Lycans.  Also, The Dark Knight is re-released, and a number of Oscar-contenders are expanding to more theaters.

Check out our predictions on Friday.

Entertainment Weekly’s Oscar Nominee Predictions

David Karger from Entertainment Weekly presents his predictions a few weeks ago.  Let’s see what the expert says:

Best Picture:
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Dark Knight
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- Slumdog Millionaire

Best Actor:
- Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)
- Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
- Sean Penn (Milk)
- Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button)
- Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

Best Actress:
- Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
- Sally Hawkins (Happy Go Lucky)
- Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
- Meryl Streep (Doubt)
- Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)

Best Supporting Actor:
- Josh Brolin (Milk)
- Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
- Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
- Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
- Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire)

Best Supporting Actress:
- Penelope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona)
- Viola Davis (Doubt)
- Taraji P. Henson (Benjamin Button)
- Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
- Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Best Director:
- Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
- David Fincher (Benjamin Button)
- Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
- Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)
- Gus Van Sant (Milk)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
- Eric Roth (Benjamin Button)
- John Patrick Shanley (Doubt)
- Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon)
- David Hare (The Reader)
- Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire)

Best Original Screenplay:
- Woody Allen (Vicky Christina Barcelona)
- Dustin Lance Black (Milk)
- Mike Leigh (Happy Go Lucky)
- Jenny Lumet (Rachel Getting Married)
- Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon (WALL-E)

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Karger has some interesting picks, mainly Angelina Jolie for Best Actress and Taraji P. Henson for Best Supporting Actress.  Other than that I expect most of his selections to be accurate.  He currently has the five movies I think will be nominated for Best Picture.  If any of these five films doesn’t get nominated I will be quite surprised.

I should be posting my predictions during this week.