For those who don’t know, David Karger is a writer for Entertainment Weekly whose main contribution is covering the Academy Awards and predicting the Oscars. Sounds like a pretty sweet job if you ask me. Anyway, this past week Karger listed his Top 8 films he believes will be nominated for Best Picture this year (of course only 5 of the 8 will actually be nominated). Here is his list and my reactions to his picks:
8. Australia
Karger says that the old-fashioned voters who got Atonement nominated for Best Picture last year could go for this film.
I recently watched this film and I can say with confidence that Australia WILL NOT be in the running for Best Picture. It had Titanic-like potential, but did not live up to its expectations. Karger’s right that the this was a film that should’ve won the older members of The Academy, but now those votes will be going to Frost/Nixon. There’s a reason why Karger had Australia at the #8 spot… this might be nominated for technical categories, but not for any of the major ones.
7. The Dark Knight
Karger says that the fact that it grossed over half a billion dollars domestically should make it a consideration.
He left out the additional fact that The Dark Knight was a great film. Here’s how the formula will work… Greatness + Box Office Success = Best Picture Nominee. I already stated how I believe The Dark Knight will be a Best Picture nominee.
6. Milk
Karger says that it’s just a truly moving biopic and timely because of California’s Proposition 8, but is cautious that it might get the Brokeback Mountain treatment.
I haven’t seen it yet but the reviews are overwhemlingly fantastic. The Academy owes one to Gus Van Sant. I am 99% sure this movie will be a Best Picture nominee. Now whether or not it wins, that’s where the Brokeback Mountain treatment will come in. But with Sean Penn’s outstanding performance, a swarm of talented supporting actors, and the direction of Gus Van Sant, Milk is a serious contender.
5. Doubt
Karger says it contains very strong performances with a possible four acting nods. Out of 34 films in history to receive 4 acting nods, 31 were nominted for Best Picture.
Quite an intriguing statistic Karger threw out there. Doubt does boast a phenomenal cast with arguably the strongest two leads in any film this year (Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman). But I’m skeptical about theater to screen adaptations. If it’s able to throw its weight around and if The Academy members eat up the deep, religious tones, there no reason why Doubt shouldn’t be a nominee.
4. Revolutionary Road
Karger says this is a Best Picture contender simply because of the amount of talent in this film. Sam Mendes (American Beauty) with Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio.
He is right. The potential is extraordinary with these superstars. Can Winslet and DiCaprio recapture the chemistry they had in Titanic? Can Mendes return to form like in American Beauty? To me, this one’s a coin-flip. Everything can either go in the right direction which will result in a number of nominations… or it’ll be another melodrama gone wrong and everyone will miss the boat. I’m hoping for the former.
3. Frost/Nixon
Karger says to consider this the Good Night, Good Luck of this year… combining education with entertainment.
Plus the potential Best Acting nominee Frank Langella should boost its chances. Ron Howard is also a proven Academy Award winning director. Let’s hope Howard doesn’t stray from the facts too much for entertainment purposes… if so he might receive a backlash of negative reviews. But like I said above, Frost/Nixon should be the film the elderly voters will push heavily.
2. Slumdog Millionaire
Karger says this is the “discovery” movie of the year. Backed by Fox Searchlight, the studio known for its indie discoveries like Juno and Little Miss Sunshine.
There is usually one low-key, independent film that makes its way into the Best Picture race. Being under Fox Searchlight certainly strengthens Slumdog’s chances, though there’s another indie film called The Wrestler that might receive as much attention. I believe one of those two Fox Searchlight films will be a Best Picture nominee, and all of the momentum seems to be going in Slumdog’s favor. Can The Wrestler steal the indie-magic in December? We’ll see.
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Karger says with the all-star cast, big time director, and jaw-dropping special effects, this movie should earn at least 10 nominations.
That’s quite a bold statement for Karger to make, but I’m right on board with him. I’ve been talking this movie up since last year and finally it’s about to be released. This is David Fincher’s golden opportunity to transcend his cult-fan base to world-wide public fame. Oh, and meanwhile racking up a number of Oscars. This is still the movie to beat. Hopefully it’s as good as everyone expects. If it is… watch out.
Posted by Rob Eng 
