After Twilight crushed its competition last weekend by grossing over $70 million, this weekend should be a lot closer. Twilight is expected to drop significantly since most of the hardcore fans saw it last weekend. And there are a few new movies out this weekend that is expected to attract different audiences.
First off there’s the holiday comedy, Four Christmases, starring Reese Witherspoon and Vince Vaughn about a couple that has to visit all four divorced parents for Christmas. A funny concept that looks like it can be somewhat enjoyable, expect this film to have a very good result due to its timely and light story and its 3,200 locations nationwide.
Next, Baz Luhrman’s epic World War II film, Australia, starring the “Sexiest Man Alive” Hugh Jackman and Nicole Kidman. This film is very Oscar-friendly due to its subject matter, epic length (2 hours 40 minutes), sweeping romance, and strong acting. Unfortunately, some of those characteristics will be the reason why people won’t see this movie. Opening in over 2,600 theaters this weekend, don’t expect too much from Australia this weekend.
Finally, Transporter 3 starring Jason Statham will clash with Quantum of Solace for the action audience this weekend. I’ve never watched any of the Transporter films so I can’t really give much input, but I think they have a decent following… definitely enough to crack the Top 5 of the box office.
Let’s check out our predictions for the weekend:
These predictions are based on the 3-Day weekend, not the 5-day (Thanksgiving to Sunday) weekend.
My Predictions:
1. Twilight – $30 million
2. Four Christmases – $23 million
3. Bolt – $19 million
4. Transporter 3 – $14 million
5. Quantum of Solace – $13 million
Phil’s Predictions:
1. Twilight – $35 million
2. Australia – $30 million
3. Four Christmases – $21 million
4. Transporter 3 – $15 million
5. Quantum of Solace – $11 million
Dan was unable to submit his predictions before this post was written. Anyway, both Phil and I believe Twilight will top the box office again with a range from $30-$35 million, which I think is accurate. Then the rest of our predictions differ. I believe the star power of Reese Witherspoon in another comedy should catapult Four Christmases to a very good result. Phil believes Australia is too epic to miss the Top 5 as he places it in the #2 spot. He also left out Bolt, which I believe will have a very strong second weekend. And we both have Transporter 3 ($14-$15 million range) in the #4 spot and Quantum of Solace ($11-$13 million range) rounding off the Top 5.
Let’s see how our predictions hold up.
Posted by Rob Eng 
