After a boring box office last weekend, the movie Gods have presented us with a very intriguing match-up for this weekend. Months ago, it was almost certain that Disney’s Bolt would top the box office. But now with the crazed inside fan-base of Twilight, the tides have seemed to turn. Let’s talk about the two movies debuting this weekend.
Twilight. What haven’t you heard about it? I posted my analysis and opinion on the pop-culture phenomenon and frankly, I’m glad it’s finally coming out. The wait is over. All the twelve-year-old girls can now attend their screening and scream their lungs out when Edward Cullen talks. But how will it do in the box office?
It’s a very tricky situation for this film. Months ago, a gross of $20 million would’ve sufficed, but now the bar has been raised. With reports of hundreds of showings sold out due to advanced ticket offers… wait scratch that, I just read that over 1,100 shows have been sold out… it certainly looks like Twilight is about to profit greatly from its low, $37 million budget. But looks can be deceiving.
Can this film with a large majority of teenage girls really take this movie to the top? The commercials and trailers try to focus in on the action to entice guys that it’s a action-packed vampire film… but unless you’ve been living under a rock or have no interaction with a female for the past four months, you know this is an all-out romance story. So the time has come… will Twilight be as successful as its die-hard fans display? Or was Twilight simply too hyped up?
And in the opposite corner, Disney’s Bolt. This children-friendly film tells the story of a white German Shepherd who stars as a superhero dog on a TV show. When he is accidentally shipped from Hollywood to New York City, he learns he really doesn’t have any powers and takes off on a journey with a cat and a hamster to be reunited with his owner.
I don’t know why, but this movie looks like a lot of fun. Since the box office has relatively been owned by children flicks (Madagascar, High School Musical, Beverly Hills Chihuahua), Bolt was predicted to follow the trend. Now it has lost a lot of steam due to the fact that Twilight has erupted onto the pop-culture world. I do add that debuting in more theaters than Twilight, and the added aspect of 3-D technology, Bolt is destined to gross a large sum of cash.
Here are our predictions:
My Predictions:
1. Twilight – $60 million
2. Bolt – $50 million
3. Quantum of Solace – $30 million
4. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa – $18 million
5. Role Models – $6 million
Dan’s Predictions:
1. Twilight – $62 million
2. Bolt – $45 million
3. Quantum of Solace – $28 million
4. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa – $20 million
5. Role Models – $5 million
Phil’s Predictions:
1. Bolt – $50 million
2. Twilight – $35 million
3. Quantum of Solace – $20 million
4. Madagascar Escape 2 Africa – $15 million
5. Role Models – $4 million
The key is whether or not Twilight can exceed beyond their target audience. If it’s only going to be tween-teen girls and some crazed mothers and grandmoms, then $40-$60 million is expected. But if somehow Twilight is able to reach out and pull some guys away from Bond, the total can be a lot more. I played it safe with $60 million, but Twilight has tremendous potential of breaking over $70 million.
Phil seems like he’s not buying into the Twilight hype and predicts Bolt to take the crown for this weekend’s box office. Other than that, our predictions stay the same course from Quantum of Solace to Madagascar to the big drop-off of Role Models.
Let’s see how our predictions hold up.
Posted by Rob Eng 
