Okay… it is November 17 and The Academy Awards are about three months away. At this time last year, Into the Wild, No Country for Old Men, and Gone Baby Gone were already released and embraced by critics with praise. This year is a bit different. It’s mid-November and the big time Oscar potential movies haven’t been released yet. The Visitor could be last year’s Into the Wild; released early and seen by almost no one yet critically acclaimed. But the mildly successful Changeling can’t be compared to the Coen brothers’ masterpiece that walked away with 4 Oscars. I don’t know if I’m just being restless through the fall movie season, but I will go on the record right now to predict that The Dark Knight WILL be nominated for Best Picture.
I have given this a lot of thought and even though I understand it’s quite pre-mature to make such a statement, it just feels right to me. I’m sticking with my gut instinct and I’m afraid nothing can happen from now until The Academy Awards to change my mind.
So why do I think The Dark Knight will be a Best Picture Nominee?
Quality
There is always a discussion after the Oscars are announced whether or not the Best Picture winner is actually the “best” movie of the year. You can’t make everyone happy, but the choice is made from the AMPAS who are experts in their own departments of making movies… and their word means a lot more than the general public. So quiet down all of you who stressed out how Juno should’ve won last year’s Best Picture Oscar. It was a good movie, but not that good to compete with one of the best years of movies in recent history.
If we take a glance at the past few winners for Best Picture, you’ll see the high standard all of the films have: No Country for Old Men, The Departed, Crash, Million Dollar Baby. If you argue that all of these films aren’t great, then it’s obvious your taste in films differ greatly from The Academy… therefore your opinion and input on the Oscars doesn’t mean anything. But it’s been too long when the public and the critics have overwhelmingly agreed on a film competing for Best Picture. The Dark Knight will be that movie.
One thing I hate reading about whether a movie will win Best Picture or not is, “if it’s too dark for the voters.” Come on now! Just look at the past winners. No Country for Old Men excelled in an overall “dark” Best Picture group, The Departed was one of the bloodiest winners, Crash was deliberately offensive and Million Dollar Baby was so heavy I haven’t watched it for a second time yet. So there should be no surprise that the buzz around The Dark Knight is already stating how the film is awfully dark. Well guess what… that’s not even a factor anymore. Better yet, it’s an advantage The Dark Knight has. Glum movies have been Oscar hits and this year should be no different.
Viewership
Secondly, and probably most importantly, I just cannot see The Academy Awards existing without The Dark Knight running for Best Picture. Okay, I’m getting a little ahead of myself here, but The Academy Awards NEEDS The Dark Knight to rejuvenate its popularity. Now let me throw some numbers at you.
Last year’s Academy Awards was the least watched Academy Awards ceremony in 39 years with 32 million viewers. Of course this sounded the alarm and raised the big question, “Why?” Why did the 2008 Oscars attract nearly 10 million viewers less than average?
Did it have anything to do with the Writer’s Guild of America strike? No, I don’t think so. I think it really has to do with the films that were nominated for Best Picture. Of the five films, only Juno was a box office hit and grossed over $100 by the awards ceremony. Listed below are how much each film made:
2008 Best Picture Nominees (grosses prior to The Academy Awards on Feb. 24):
- Atonement – $49 million
- Juno – $130 million
- No Country for Old Men – $64 million
- Michael Clayton - $48.5 million
- There Will Be Blood – $35 million
The low box office totals translate to a low number of people who actually seen any of the Best Picture nominees. And The Academy Awards works like any other competition, whether it’s a sports championship game, a reality competition show, or an election… if you don’t know or like any of the competitors, you have little interest. If you don’t watch know any of the celebrities on Dancing With the Stars or like any of the finalists on American Idol… you probably won’t be watching the finale. If your favorite team isn’t in the World Series, you probably won’t watch the entire best-of-seven series. The same goes for The Academy Awards.
This article shows how 76% of the people who watched The Academy Awards during its low of 32 million haven’t seen any of the Best Picture nominees. I think it’s quite clear that’s the reason why the ratings were disastrous.
So what am I rambling about? Simple. If The Dark Knight is nominated for Best Picture, viewership will get a pleasant boost… no scratch that. The ratings will hit an all-time high! That’s right. Let’s face it… the highest rating The Academy Awards ever received was the year Titanic won Best Picture in 1998 as it attracted 55 million viewers. And we all know that Titanic is the only film that has made more money than The Dark Knight. Do the math and the projections! The Dark Knight sells. End of story.
Those hardcore Academy Awards analysts would probably chastise me for implying the most prestigious awards ceremony sell out just for better ratings. But that’s not true. The Dark Knight is definitely a worthy contender to win Best Picture. Critics have praised it as the best super-hero and comic book film of all time. It’s a lot more than just an action movie. The performances were excellent. The direction was superb. Why doesn’t it deserve to be discussed as the best movie of the year? And I’m also no implying that there will be some dirty work done behind the scenes to bump The Dark Knight into the Top 5. I’m suggesting that the voters will take these things into consideration and give The Dark Knight its due in order to award a spectacular film along with the ceremony’s popularity. It’s a win-win situation.
And also, I’m not saying it should win Best Picture. Honestly, I don’t think it deserves to. WALL-E was a better film than The Dark Knight, but it won’t get its recognition because it’s an animated film. I’m just saying, The Dark Knight will be nominated. That’s all that’s needed to make people interested in the Oscars again. They need a movie that they’ve seen to root for. The Dark Knight is that movie.
You might be saying, well why Best Picture? Can’t Heath Ledger be nominated for Best Supporting Actor and get the same outcome? If you did think of this, then you are correct. Heath Ledger’s performance as The Joker was simply breathtaking. He should be nominated, and if he does get the nod he will definitely bring in a lot of viewers. And although that would provide a minor boost, I’m still sure that a nod in the Best Picture category will provide the biggest boost. When it all comes down to it, the Best Picture award is all that matters. Best Actors and Actresses are merely determined before the awards ceremony through the number of precursors prior. And say The Dark Knight does get nominated, but is considered an extreme underdog to the other nominees… will people still watch? Of course! Even if there is a clear front-runner for Best Picture, the past has proven that anything can happen. Just look a few years ago when everyone picked Brokeback Mountain until Crash surprised the movie world with that monumental upset. And then look at how Shakespeare in Love beat out Saving Private Ryan. And Forrest Gump winning over The Shawshank Redemption and Pulp Fiction. And Dances with Wolves winning over Goodfellas. Anything can happen.
The bottom line is, there is too much The Academy Awards can benefit from if The Dark Knight is acknowledged with a Best Picture nominee. It just makes sense. Even if every single movie with Oscar buzz makes over $100 million and receives stellar reviews… The Dark Knight will still hang with them and will be nominated. It will be done.
Posted by Rob Eng 
Posted by Rob Eng 
