For all of those who don’t know, I love the Oscars. I’m actually quite dorky with The Academy Awards. I follow them almost religiously so right now I’ll apologize if my entire blog is bombarded with Oscar buzz from this point on (but I’ll try my best to keep things diverse). So here we are in the third week of September and I figure, “Hey, this is a perfect time to start talking about Oscar potentials.” It’s never too early to take a peak at some contenders, right?
Even though the summer is known to simply bang out films that’ll fill seats, some of this year’s blockbusters not only grossed millions, but also are legitimate contenders come February when the Oscars are announced. Of course, these films still have a long and rocky road in front of them to be acknowledged by The Academy, but thus far they’re off to a good start.
These are two films that I foresee having the best chances of competing for some Oscar gold…
The Dark Knight
The year 2008 will forever be known as the year The Dark Knight climbed its way over $500 million in the box office and transcended the superhero genre. There will be no movie this year that will have more lasting power. The question is: Can this stream of success carry over to The Academy? Some believe that it will, while skeptics think it’s a long shot. With the number of independent films receiving Best Picture attention in recent years, a nomination for The Dark Knight will surely shake things up in the movie business.
Why shouldn’t TDK be involved with Best Picture talks? The only film that grossed more money domestically than TDK is Titanic, and we all know what kind of effect the big ship had on Oscar night (11 total awards). Of course, Titanic’s release was a lot more Oscar-friendly (December 19) instead of the July release of The Dark Knight, but Warner Bros are on the right track for its Oscar campaign by announcing that they’re re-releasing TDK in January to remind the world how ultimately awesome it was.
Potential: Everything. A hurricane of critical acclaim and a tsunami of money at the box office show that it was a hit with everyone. The most practical nomination would be for the technical awards like visual effects, editing, and sound. But as for a Big 8 nomination, count on Heath Ledger’s masterful performance as The Joker to battle for a Best Supporting Actor award. And don’t count out this to sneak in the Best Picture category.
WALL-E
If there was any movie that received more acclaim than The Dark Knight this summer, it was this clumsy little robot that could, WALL-E. Being boasted as Pixar’s riskiest and best work, that’s saying a whole lot from a studio that’s known as the King of Animation. WALL-E was everything that was expected, plus more. It was so good, it actually brought up the possibility of being recognized as a Best Picture candidate. But we all know that since animation has their own category now, there will never be an animation feature up for Best Picture again.
Potential: Nah, that’s not the right word. I’d say that WALL-E is a LOCK for Best Animated Feature. As for other nominations, maybe an Original Screenplay nomination, or sound and special effects.
That wraps up the two powerhouses of the summer. Now let’s take a glance at some upcoming films with Oscar potential…
9/12 – Burn After Reading
From the guys who brought you last year’s runaway Oscar hit, No Country for Old Men, the Coen brothers are back in action with their quirky, dark-comedy that includes an absolute stellar cast (George Clooney, Frances McDormand, Brad Pitt, John Malkovich, and Tilda Swinton). The funny thing about the Coens is that they’re pretty darn funny. Oh, and they’re pretty darn good at making movies, too. But I doubt that Burn After Reading will receive the same golden statue treatment that NCFOM did. Nonetheless, the Coen brothers do what they want to do, and you just know they’re going to do it well.
Potential: Possibly a screenplay nod for the gifted Coens who pen their films. Aside from that, I can’t really see BAR falling in any other category.
9/26 – Miracle at St. Anna
Spike Lee is no stranger to The Academy, though he hasn’t been nominated in over a decade. Will this story about four black American soldiers during World War II score him his third Oscar nomination? The material sounds Oscar-worthy. We just have to wait to see how well Lee executes it and whether or not critics embrace it.
Potential: A possible directing nomination for Spike Lee, but since I don’t expect this film to make the Top 5 cut for Best Picture, his chances are very slim.
10/10 – Body of Lies
Ridley Scott is back in war-mode with Body of Lies, a film about an ex-journalist working to locate an Al Quaeda leader for the CIA. Teaming up all-stars Russell Crowe and Leonardo DiCaprio can’t ever be a bad idea, right? The question is, will this just be like last year’s American Gangster, which proved to be more entertaining to the public than to The Academy? Or will Scott return to epic form in films like Black Hawk Down and Gladiator? My guess, it’ll be an American Gangster repeat.
Potential: If Body of Lies is a quality film that proves to be an Oscar contender, then surely DiCaprio and Crowe would have pulled their weight around enough to possibly be involved with Best Acting nominations.
10/10 – Happy-Go-Lucky
Mike Leigh’s magic pen has scored him three nominations for Best Screenplay from his past five films. The buzz around this new film is that he might make it four in the past six. Let’s see how far this little dramedy can go.
Potential: Best Original Screenplay
10/24 – Changeling
This is one of the most highly anticipated movies coming out this Oscar season. Why? Look no further than the man behind the camera, Clint Eastwood. Okay, now look who’s in front of the camera, Angelina Jolie, Amy Ryan, and John Malkovich. Now add an Oscar-friendly story and an already positive reception from the Cannes Festival, and you get one of the strongest Oscar contenders this year.
Potential: Everything. If this movie is as good as people think it will be, expect to see the Big 8 cluttered with nominations from Changeling.
11/21 – The Soloist
Joe Wright strays from his period pieces to direct this drama about a reporter who befriends a troubled musician who dreams of a grand performance at the Walt Disney Concert Hall. Jamie Foxx stars as the musician and Robert Downey Jr. is the reporter. When you add Catherine Keener as Downey’s wife and the screenwriter Susannah Grant (Erin Brokovich), this drama has a lot of Oscar-power.
Potential: The buzz has remained fairly low, but the possibilities are high. If The Soloist is a hit, expect it to make its mark in a few of the Big 8 Categories along with the music categories.
11/26 – The Road
Entertainment Weekly listed this Cormac McCarthy novel as the best in the past quarter-century. And the McCarthy name has already gone through the glamour of the Oscars with last year’s No Country for Old Men. What a feat it would be if two adaptations won Best Picture in consecutive years. There is a lot of skepticism though, including the newcomer John Hillcoat as the director. But if he’s able to capture the darkness in the novel with a strong performance from Viggo Mortensen, there’s a very good chance The Road can score a number of Oscars.
Potential: Everything, especially a Best Actor nod for Viggo Mortensen.
11/26 – Australia
Another huge Oscar candidate is this World War II epic starring Nicole Kidman and Hugh Jackman that has the hype of being great. Directed by Baz Luhrmann (Moulin Rouge!), this film displays shades of Titanic with its heavy romance on top of a tragic storyline. My opinion, this is one of those films that is highly touted going into Oscar season, but will be a major disappointment. I do not expect this film to compete for Best Picture like some sites are predicting.
Potential: If Australia’s able to score a Best Picture nod, then Baz Luhrmann will get his first Best Director nomination.
11/26 – Milk
Homosexuality is always a tough sell in The Academy (see Brokeback Mountain’s upset), but this Gus Van Sant film of Harvey Milk’s story seems extremely moving. If praised by the critics, expect some of these strong actors to snatch up a few nominations: Sean Penn, Josh Brolin, Emile Hirsch, James Franco.
Potential: Maybe The Academy feels bad for Van Sant’s, Good Will Hunting being in the same year as Titanic, and therefore wants to reward him for his next brilliant effort. This could very well be it. Besides him, Sean Penn looks extremely strong for a Best Actor nod… unless they snub his work again like last year for Into the Wild.
11/28 – Slumbdog Millionaire
A surprise at the Toronto Movie Festival was this small film made by Danny Boyle (28 Days Later, Trainspotting) about a poor Indian teenager who becomes a contestant on the Indian version of “Who Wants to be a Millionaire?” Winner of the top prize at Toronto with The People’s Choice Award, this puts it as quite a serious contender during this year’s Oscar season. Can its success in Toronto carry over to The Academy? In my opinion, unless this film gets a more-than-limited release, I don’t know if this can really stand a chance against the bigger and more glamorous films.
Potential: Maybe this will be Danny Boyle’s ticket to The Academy Awards. Besides him, maybe a writing nomination for Simon Beaufoy (The Full Monty).
12/5 – Frost/Nixon
Now here’s an absolute power in Oscar season. Written by Peter Morgan (The Queen) and directed by Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind), I expect this film to carry everything a Best Picture movie should. With Frank Langella as the lead, it seems like there’s little that can go wrong with this movie. And have you seen the trailer? This is an absolute must see in my book.
Potential: Frank Langella should get his due as the veteran in the Best Leading Actor category. If this film is exceptional, Ron Howard and Peter Morgan’s names could be thrown around again in their respected categories.
12/12 – Defiance
This year’s Edward Zwick flick tells the tale of three Jewish brothers who escape from Nazi-infested Poland into the Belarussian forest. Zwick always has a way of carefully combining mainstream entertainment with war and tragedy extremely well, and this should be no exception. The cast includes Daniel Craig, Liev Schreiber, Jamie Bell, and George MacKay.
Potential: Edward Zwick brings out the best of his actors, usually scoring them some type of acting nomination (Leonardo DiCaprio and Djimon Hounsou in Blood Diamond, Denzel Washington in Glory) so expect that possibility for one of the leads in this film.
12/12 – Doubt
Based on a Pulitzer Award Winning play in 2005, John Patrick Shanley (Moonstruck) attempts to adapt his theater masterpiece onto the silver screen. This is usually a much harder feat to accomplish than it seems, and rarely does the adaptation capture all of the power from the original. But I’m sure it helps when you throw Meryl Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Amy Adams into the mix.
Potential: It’s hard to imagine an Academy Awards without Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman involved. If I was a betting man, I’d bet one of these veterans receive a nomination.
12/19 – The Wrestler
One of the most popular films at this year’s Toronto Film Festival, The Wrestler tells the story of a retired professional wrestler, Randy “The Ram” Robinson, who deals with being past his prime and has to fight to keep his life on track. Mickey Rourke is said to have given the performance of his life, and with well-known director Darren Aronofsky behind the camera… this film has some serious buzz around it. Already the winner of the Golden Lion in Venice, with Fox Searchlight winning the bidding war for roughly $4 million, and being chosen as the closing-night selection at the New York Film Festival… this can continue the trend of Best Picture nominations for independent films.
Potential: A Best Picture nomination seems in the works for this Fox Searchlight film that knows haw to campaign for an Oscar (Sideways, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno). But with Mickey Rourke as this year’s most talked about performances so far, expect a Best Lead Actor nod.
12/25 – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Okay, scratch everything I’ve said so far about Oscar potentials and films I’m excited to see. THIS is the film to beat and THIS is the film I’ve been waiting for a long time to see. Based on a short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald, with a screenplay written by Eric Roth (Munich, The Insider, Forrest Gump), and directed by David Fincher (Zodiac, Fight Club, Se7en)… this is THE movie to beat. Starring Brad Pitt as the titular character, and also Tilda Swinton and the reoccurring face at The Academy Awards, Cate Blanchett… this film is a titan.
David Fincher has proven he can make extraordinary films with a small budget. Fight Club and Se7en are two of the biggest cult movies in the past fifteen years. And last year’s Zodiac was listed in many critics’ Top 10 lists. I was surprised Zodiac got zero recognition, but I guess that’s what a March release date could do to you. This time, Fincher has a huge budget to work with, along with an incredibly Oscar-friendly release date. This is his chance to show the world that he’s ready to finally take the podium in February. Just a little pressure…
Potential: Everything. It’s tough being the #1 watched film, expected to be great and score Oscars… but that’s the situation The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is in. Now can it deliver? I think it can. Christopher Nolan and David Fincher are two of my favorite directors of this generation, and Nolan proved himself with The Dark Knight… now it’s Fincher’s turn. Nothing short of a Best Picture nomination, Best Actor for Pitt, and a Best Director nod is acceptable.
12/26 – Revolutionary Road
The word has been out for a while. Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet are teaming up for the first time since Titanic! This must mean a trip to the Oscars, right? Based on the Richard Yates novel, an area of concern I have is a newcomer, Justin Haythe, penning the screenplay. But if they can get past this speed bump, Revolutionary Road should be a solid contender for Best Picture.
Potential: Best Picture and most likely an acting nomination for Leonardo DiCaprio or Kate Winslet… or both. And if the movie is really really good, then Sam Mendes will finally get over his slump after the brilliant American Beauty.
Posted by Rob Eng 
