During this Awards Season, a popular thing to do is along with predicting who will win the Oscars, people write under that “Who SHOULD win.” I thought about going down that road too, because frankly The Academy doesn’t always choose the “best” as the winner. A lot has to do with public opinion, campaigning, and a lot of other things.
So for since I’ve already posted my predictions, this post will concentrate on what nominees I DON’T want to win, and there are plenty.
To start with the big award of the night, Best Picture, there’s no doubt that I’m pulling hard for No Country for Old Men. It’s the best film of the year, hands down. There Will Be Blood was also a masterpiece, but I know it’s not going to be praised by The Academy like it was with critics and the public. But the one film that seems to be threatening No Country for Old Men’s big win on Sunday is the little indie-hit that turned into a box office smash… Juno. I’ll admit, Juno probably has the best chance to upset NCFOM. It’s the darkhorse and if it wins, it’ll be one of the biggest upsets in recent Oscar history. It’ll be up there with Crash beating Brokeback Mountain and Shakespeare in Love beating Saving Private Ryan.
But from me to The Academy, I really hope you didn’t vote Juno in for Best Picture… because that would just plain suck. This award is supposed to go to the “Best Picture” from the entire year, and though I don’t agree with some of the past Best Picture winners, they’re usually worthy of the title. Now if Juno wins over the other four excellent nominations (No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, Michael Clayton, and Atonement), I will undoubtedly throw a heavy object towards my television screen in retaliation for an unbelievable crime to the movie industry. Do not get me wrong, I loved Juno… it was an awesome film, and definitely one of my favorites for the year… but it should definitely NOT win Best Picture. I wouldn’t be ranting like this if I didn’t know better, but the truth is that the though of Juno taking the stage at the end of the ceremony seems too plausible. And it doesn’t help that arguably the biggest expert on Oscar analysis predicted that Juno was going to win.
A similar type of robbery will occur if Juno’s star Ellen Page wins for Best Actress. To be fair, she’s far from a favorite in this category, it’s almost a coin flip between Julie Christie (Away From Her) and Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)… but that doesn’t mean she can’t win. And it seems there are a bunch of Juno lovers out there who are voting for Ellen Page. Again, I love Ellen Page since seeing Hard Candy… but was her performance in Juno really the BEST of the year? I know she was great and funny and she’s a very talented actress, but it’s really incomparable to Christie and Cotillard’s. Christie playing the Alzheimer plagued woman who forgets her beloved husband and Cotillard who portrays Edith Piaf’s life of peasantry, singing, morphine addiction, and sickness. I think Christie will win this award but I wouldn’t mind at all if Cotillard won… Hell, even if Laura Linney pulls off a huge upset I’d applaud it… but NOT for Ellen Page.
As for the tightest race of the entire night, the Best Supporting Actress category is full of excellent performances from Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone), Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton), Saoirse Ronan (Atonement), and Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There). These four did an outstanding job really diving into their characters headfirst and tackling on such challenging roles. On the other hand, Ruby Dee’s nomination in this category was sort of… well undeserved? Oscars are supposed to be awarding outstanding achievement for films in the past year, right? Then someone explain to me how Ruby Dee got a nomination for her less than 10-minute role in American Gangster. Sure, she’s 83 years old and is respected throughout The Academy… and actually I was kind of happy she received a nomination. But now she’s in a wide-open category where anyone can win, and she seems to be the safest pick amongst the five nominees. There’s a really good chance she’ll take home the statue, and that’ll really piss me off. Her role was almost completely insignificant in American Gangster… award her with a lifetime achievement award, but not an Oscar that will rob four amazing displays of talent.
The final category I’ll really be pissed off if The Academy gets it wrong is for Best Original Song. This isn’t so much as how I think one nomination is undeserving… instead I just really really love Once’s ballad “Falling Slowly.” I’ll probably be rooting the hardest for this to win come tomorrow night. I fell in love with Once and its beautiful music and its story and its characters and its simplicity and… heck everything about it! Now I’ve listened to the other four nominations, three from Enchanted and one from August Rush, and they don’t even come close to the power of “Falling Slowly” but I admit I haven’t watched the films so I don’t know how they really connect to the story. But anyway, I’ll be looking forward to the live performance by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova and hope they win the Oscar.
Okay… well that’s all I guess. I’m actually breathing a little easier now since I found out that Juno won the Indie Spirit Award… and we all know that ever since Platoon (1987) no movie has won the Indie Spirit and Best Picture, even when they’re heavy favorites (Pulp Fiction and Brokeback Mountain anyone?). So as long as none of these nominations piss me off tomorrow night, it’ll be a grand celebration of an extraordinary year in film.
Posted by Rob Eng 
