My Final Oscar Predictions

There are just four more days to Hollywood’s most glamorous night… The Academy Awards.  It’s been one hell of a year in cinema and it’s time to award those excellent performances and efforts.  Usually I play my predictions safe, picking the favorite over the potential upsets 9 out of 10 times, but this year I found myself picking quite a few underdogs.  I just feel it there were so many great films, they all deserve to share the night together.  Well, enjoy… here are my predictions…
 

Best Picture
Prediction:  No Country for Old Men
Alternate:  Michael Clayton
 
It’s a funny situation how any film, except for Atonement, can win Best Picture even though No Country for Old Men is the absolute favorite.  I would go to as far as saying if Juno or Michael Clayton wins, I won’t be surprised.  But there is no doubt that No Country for Old Men is the frontrunner for the big award on Sunday night.  It basically won every award up to the Oscars including precursors, Guild awards, and everything else.  But the question is:  Will it win the Oscar?  There are certainly a lot of questions surrounding NCFOM.  For instance, is being the clear frontrunner really an advantage?  Yes and no.  If you didn’t know, the members don’t have to watch the film to vote for it.  That being said, to those who haven’t seen the film, will they simply jump on the NCFOM wagon because they want to pick the potential winner?  Or will they see NCFOM as a frontrunner and therefore think that if everyone’s voting for it, they should just vote for something else.  These are all possibilities.
 
But now for those who actually saw the movie… is it too violent?  Too dark?  Too depressing?  Too confusing?  Sure, violent movies can win Best Picture like it did last year with The Departed, so that shouldn’t be a major issue.  But about it being too depressing and dark… heck, all of the nominees are dark except for the one and only Juno.  Without doubt Juno will rack up a number of votes from the young members (though they’re heavily outnumbered by older members) and from people who want to award a film that simply made them feel good. 
 
So then why isn’t Juno my alternate pick?  It very well should be… Ebert picked it as his favorite movie of the year and Scott Feinberg went as far as to predict it as the Best Picture winner.  But this is how I see things… The same kind of voters who love NCFOM will love There Will Be Blood, but NCFOM is more popular, and argueably better, so the votes will go for NCFOM.  But for those who didn’t like Blood and NCFOM, then you have Juno and Michael Clayton.  I have a feeling that the young voters will go for Juno, but the older voters will go for Michael Clayton (and we all know the majority is made up of old voters).  As for Atonement, this film probably would’ve won Best Picture if it was made 10 years ago.  It’s a strictly old-fashioned type of movie specifically built to win the Best Picture Oscar.  Unfortunately for Atonement, this is the new age of Oscar voters and the criteria no longer goes for those epic romances like Titanic and The English Patient (though enough of them still remain to have it nominated).  But why I predict No Country will pull it out after all of this mess is because Atonement will absorb some votes away from Juno AND Michael Clayton… it’ll take away some female votes from Juno and some “old-fashioned” votes from Michael Clayton.  And when all the mess is sorted out, No Country for Old Men should be the winner.
 
 
Best Director
Prediction:  Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Alternate:  Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
 
I don’t really think there’s much to report in this category.  In my opinion, Jason Reitman (Juno) doesn’t stand a chance and should be thrilled by his nominated.  He was nominated for his second film he directed, that’s quite a feat.  What’s better than being nominated after your second directorial effort?  Howabout Tony Gilroy’s nominated for Michael Clayton, his directorial debut.  Not too shabby, but again, he should be content with his nomination.  And then there’s Paul Thomas Anderson, one who’s been lurking around the Oscars every other year or so, but only for his writing, not for his directing.  He’ll certainly tally up a bunch of votes from those members who keep calling There Will Be Blood a “masterpiece” but probably not enough to win.  Julian Schnabel has the best chance to upset the Coen brothers.  The Diving Bell and the Butterfly didn’t receive a Best Picture nod, so The Academy might feel obligated to reward the movie in this category.  But the facts are this:  four out of the five nominees received their first Best Director nomination ever… the one who has been nominated before is Joel Coen for Fargo.  So I guess you can say the Coen brothers are the veterans in this category.  Basically, I think they have this locked up.
 
 
Best Actor
Prediction:  Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
 
There is no alternate to the masterful performance given by Mr. Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood.  And he will surely accept the award with grace and gratitude.  I for one am looking forward to his acceptance speech as he’s always humble and thankful for his awards.
 
 
Best Actress
Prediction:  Julie Christie (Away From Her)
Alternate:  Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
 
Sorry Ellen Page, I loved you in Juno but I just don’t think you have what it takes to pull an upset over these two far superior performances.  When was the last time a comedic performance won a best Actor/Actress category anyway?  Julie Christie, being the only veteran out of a category of newcomers and middle-aged women, will receive plenty of votes on the basis that everyone expects her to win, on top of those who really think she should win.  But in reality, this is quite an open race.   Laura Linney is great year after year but has never won an Oscar, so she’ll certainly receive a number of votes.  But for those who see The Academy giving Best Actress to younger women, you only have to look to last year when Helen Mirren won for her role in The Queen.  The Academy does award the elderly too.  Yet, if Marion Cotillard can pull off the upset, I certainly wouldn’t mind.  Her performance in La Vie en Rose was incredible… definitely one of the best individual performances this year alongside Daniel Day-Lewis’.
 
 
Best Supporting Actor
Prediction:  Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Alternate:  Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
 
Bardem played the most memorable on-screen villain since Hannibal Lector in The Silence of the Lambs.  Anthony Hopkins was rewarded an Oscar for his performance… Bardem will soon follow suit.  Although, I wouldn’t mind if Hal Holbrook won.  I can imagine the expression of shock and joy hitting him once his name is called and his glorious walk to the podium and then a tearful and gracious speech.  Wouldn’t that just be great?
 
 
Best Supporting Actress
Prediction:  Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
Alternate:  Ruby Dee (American Gangster)
 
This is without a doubt the most wide open category.  The phrase “anyone can win” is literally true for every category, but for this one it’s actually plausible.  Amy Ryan was the frontrunner during the beginning of the awards season for her excellent performance in Gone Baby Gone as a crack-out mother whose child goes missing.  But her buzz faded and faded until it simply died.  Though she hasn’t made a splash since, she’s still has a very good chance to take this award home with her.  Then there’s Cate Blanchett, the seemingly frontrunner up til Oscar night.  Her role as Bob Dylan in Todd Haynes’ I’m Not There was praised by critics everywhere.  But she hasn’t been winning much.  She’s still the favorite because of how everyone knows The Academy awards actors in biopics and actors who go through great physical change… heck she played Bob Dylan!  But her steam has definitely toned down from the BAFTA win to Tilda Swinton and the SAG Awards win to Ruby Dee. 
 
I honestly don’t think Ruby Dee deserves to win this award from her 5-minute role in American Gangster.  She was good, but not memorable.  Her nomination, and potential win, will only be because of her lengthy career and The Academy simply recognizing her for that.  But after all that’s through, I feel Tilda Swinton will win the prize.  She was brilliant in Michael Clayton, and its 7 nominations proves that a large quantity of The Academy loved the movie.  Ruby Dee will stand out from the actors, but as a whole I think Tilda Swinton will win Michael Clayton’s only award on Sunday. 
 
 
Best Adapted Screenplay
Prediction:  Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Alternate:  Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
 
 
Best Original Screenplay
Prediction:  Diablo Cody (Juno)
Alternate:  Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
 
 
Best Foreign Film
Prediction:  The Counterfeiters (Austria)
 
 
Best Animated Feature
Prediction:  Ratatouille
 
 
Best Documentary Feature
Prediction:  No End in Sight
 
 
Best Art Direction
Prediction:  There Will Be Blood (Jack Fisk, Jim Erickson)
 
 
Best Cinematography
Prediction:  There Will Be Blood (Robert Elswitt)
 
 
Best Costume Design
Prediction:  Atonement (Jacqueline Durran)
 
 
Best Film Editing
Prediction:  The Bourne Ultimatum (Christopher Rouse)
 
 
Best Makeup
Prediction:  La Vie en Rose (Jan Archibald, Didier Lavergne)
 
 
Best Original Score
Prediction:  Atonement (Dario Marianelli)
 
 
Best Original Song
Prediction:  “Falling Slowly” (Once)
 
 
Best Sound Editing
Prediction:  Transformers (Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn)
 
 
Best Sound Mixing
Prediction:  Transformers (Peter J. Devlin, Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell)
 
 
Best Visual Effects
Prediction:  Transformers (Scott Benza, Russell Earl, John Frazier)
 
 
Best Animated Short
Prediction:  Peter and the Wolf
 
 
Best Live Action Short
Prediction:  Le Mozart Des Pickpockets
 
 
Best Documentary Short
Prediction:  Freeheld

So if this pans out exactly like what I’ve predicted, the tallies will go down as:
No Country for Old Men – 4 awards
There Will Be Blood – 3 awards
Transformers – 3 awards
Atonement – 2 awards

Quite spread out indeed?  Of course, I’m probably completely off and either No Country will take home 6 awards, or maybe it’ll only win 1 or 2…. OR maybe Michael Clayton will shock us all and take a handful.  Who knows?