Oscar Watch

With about three months away from the Oscars, it’s about time to start getting serious about the contenders and the will-be contenders.  Of course, still far away from award season, this is still a good time to start some predictions.

This year has boasted a very strong array of Oscar-worthy films… along with many disappointments.  It seems as though the trend for the disappointments deal with political/war films such as In the Valley of Elah, Lions for Lambs, and Rendition.  But throughout the entire year, and even the summer, there are a number of movies who could sneak into the best picture race with the right campaigning and support.

We’ll start out with the top five, which of right now, I think will be the nominees come February.  These movies include:  Atonement, No Country for Old Men, American Gangster, Charlie Wilson’s War, The Kite Runner.

Atonement – Directed by Joe Wright (Pride & Prejudice).  Starring Keira Knightley and James McAvoy.

Why this should be nominated? 

This film has been very well received thus far, and my expectations are extremely high.  Based on Ian McEwan’s award-winning novel, Atonement is a war-drama between two lovers who are split up because of false accusations of a younger sister.  The buzz from this film is ear-splitting. 

Why this might miss the top five? 

The only thing that could bring this movie down is the pattern of war films to the American public.  That or if this film is anything less than a masterpiece.

No Country for Old Men – Directed by Joel and Ethan Coen (Fargo).  Starring Tommy Lee Jones, Javier Bardem, and Josh Brolin. 

Why this should be nominated?

This crime-thriller, based on the Cormac McCarthy novel, is being touted as the best reviewed movie of the year.  The Oscar Igloo says this will probably become the critics’ darling of the year and that should be enough to keep it safe in the top five for the rest of the season.

Why this might miss the top five?

Some might say there’s too much violence, or unless it’s a success at the box office then it’ll lose steam.  Nonetheless, The Departed won last year with a lot of violence and Crash won the year prior grossing only $55 million. 

American Gangster – Directed by Ridley Scott (Gladiator).  Starring Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe.

Why this should be nominated?

The all-star cast of Ridley Scott, writer Steve Zaillian, Denzel Washington, and Russell Crowe should be enough to at least get a nomination right?  This was full of buzz before it was released, and be sure this will get a very strong campaign to launch it into the top five… not to mention the very good numbers at the box office.

Why this might miss the top five?

The reviews were good, not great.  The similarities to last year’s The Departed.  And in my opinion, I don’t feel like this is going to be one of my top five favorite films of the year, but I’m not saying who my top five is, I’m predicting which five films will be nominated, and I really believe this will.  Do I think it will win… no.  Out of the top five I have at the time, I believe this has the slimmest chance at taking the golden statue.

Charlie Wilson’s War – Directed by Mike Nichols (The Graduate).  Starring Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, and Philip Seymour Hoffman. 

Why this should be nominated?

Like American Gangster, this film has a lot of star-power.  Will that be enough though?  This movie is receiving a lot of buzz, but the fact is that no one really knows anything about the film.  It just seems too much greatness on paper to be anything that’s no remarkable… unless it’s this year’s Dreamgirls.  The trailer also suggests a lighter tone compared to the bulk of dead-serious movies this year. 

Why this might miss the top five?

Until the film is released, it’s just a guessing game with most of the guesses leaning towards a best picture nomination.  But again, is America tired of movies about war?  And can the star-studded cast carry this film into a decent box office?  Marked as the movie most likely to fail, nothing can really be certain until it’s released.

The Kite Runner – Directed by Marc Forster (Finding Neverland).

Why this should be nominated?

This best-selling novel, written by Khaled Hosseini, will have all of the loyal readers behind this film.  Using unknown actors, Forster puts all the concentration on the power of the story.  Already being discussed as a Best Picture candidate, will this drama with guaranteed devastation have what it takes to make the top five?

Why this might miss the top five?

The unknown cast might damper its box office success, although I believe the word of mouth and knowledge of the best-selling novel will give this film decent numbers.  But wrapped up in controversy, the release date had to be pushed a month back from November 2 to December 14.  And as AwardsDaily.com mentioned, “The Academy have been known to why away from controversy in the past, so one must wonder what, if any, impact it will have on the Best Picture race.”

Other movies to consider:

There Will Be Blood – This film is being seen as possibly “too dark” or “too weird.”  The films that don’t make the top five because of such reasons are usually celebrated by making the Best Writing categories, in which Paul Thomas Anderson has scored two nods.  So I expect the same for this film.

Into the Wild – This movie has been receiving raves from critics, but what might hurt this film is that… seriously… who actually saw it?  The best chance for this film is to stay consistently strong at the critics’ awards (oscar igloo).

3:10 to Yuma – The chances of this movie being on the top five at the end of the year are very unlikely, but LionsGate is pushing hard for this, along with Away from Her.  Depending on how much effort is put into campaigning, just expect a few nods… hopefully one for Russell Crowe and another for Ben Foster. 

Juno – This year’s Little Miss Sunshine, can this dramedy make it through?  Receiving a large amount of buzz has me very excited to trek out to NYC for this film… but will the almost certain low box office affect Juno’s Best Picture chance?

Sweeney Todd – This didn’t even end up on my top ten until I saw it on the top five on oscarigloo.com.  I think this will be an enjoyable film, like most Tim Burton projects are, but really… Best Picture worthy?  I doubt it.  But as the Oscar Igloo says, “It still needs to win the Golden Glove over the beloved Juno [to have a shot.]”
That about wraps it up.  More updates to come as the countdown to the Oscars keeps on ticking.

Carrie Underwood – Carnival Ride

Carrie Underwood has made the sophomore slump a myth to her name.  Debuting at #1 on the Billboard charts with over 500,000 copies sold, Carrie is way under her way to produce monstrous numbers like her first album did.  This is because in her second album, Carnival Ride, she sticks to the formula she took with her first album Some Hearts and is reaping the benefits in doing so.  Fortunately, she didn’t take the Kelly Clarkson role of changing her sound and straying from professional writing, which as we all know damaged Clarkson’s My December and her image.  Carrie’s taking baby-steps to evolving her music by taking a bigger, but not yet dominant, part with songwriting while keeping her pop/country sound.  
 
Unlike her first album, the title Carnival Ride isn’t a track; it’s the idea behind the entire album and is only mentioned in the last track.  Carrie explains the meaning behind the album title by saying, “You step onto this ride called life, and it’s a crazy thing you don’t know anything about, but you get on it anyway. You do what you can to lean different directions to try and get it to go where you want it to go, but you can’t stop it – it just keeps moving. That’s why Carnival Ride works as my album title, because it describes the wonderful craziness that I’ve been through over the past couple years.”  
 
A carnival ride indeed.  The ride starts off with a bang from the country-rock track, “Flat on the Floor,” a perfect opener to this album and would also be a perfect opener for her upcoming tour in 2008.  
 
With only a handful of songs that Carrie co-wrote herself on the album, those songs have a more personal story-telling feel to them.  Her first single off the album, “So Small” is your typical love-overrules-everything kind of song with the lyrics, “when you figure out love is all that matters after all, it sure makes everything else seem so small.” 

When I commented in the opening paragraph about how Carnival Ride follows the same formula of Some Hearts, I think I underplayed that statement.   Both albums are nearly identical in content, tone, and delivery.  Both have the energetic, anthem-like tracks to start off the album.  The second track of both albums is sweet, heart-warming songs about parenthood.  The third track of both albums is the nice love song.  And the fourth tracks are about dealing with hard times and tragedy.  The slight difference is that Some Hearts is in some way or another, an album about a girl looking for something, whether it’s love or closure over love.  Carnival Ride is more about the many attempts at love and how many things went wrong.  These interpretations of the albums are from the tracks after the beginning hits, when the album actually molds into a tighter concept and not just individual tracks. 
 
Already becoming the best-selling debut of any female artist in 2007 for Carnival Ride we should expect Carrie to repeat an onslaught of awards and praise just like Some Hearts did.  This American Idol winner, along with two Grammy awards, four CMA awards, and eight Billboard Music awards, it’s evident that Carrie isn’t only on top of the country music world, but she’s on top of the pop music world as well.  She’s doing now what Shania Twain and Faith Hill did for country a few years back.